在美國 民粹主義爲何會盛行
Too much attention is being paid to how bad populist leaders such as Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen and Jeremy Corbyn are, and to how their programmes, left or right, will ruin the countries they aspire to govern.
人們對這兩件事投入了太多關注：唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)、馬琳•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)以及傑里米•科爾賓(Jeremy Corbyn)等民粹主義領導者有多糟糕、他們或左傾或右傾的計劃將如何摧毀他們渴望執掌的國家。
There is too little focus on the hope and optimism they give their many millions of followers.
人們太不關注的則是他們給自己的無數追隨者帶來的希望和樂觀。
It is true, for example, that Mr Corbyn, leader of the UK’s opposition Labour party, cuts no figure as a prime minister-in-waiting, as most of his parliamentary colleagues have discovered.
例如，英國反對黨工黨(Labour party)領袖科爾賓的確沒有個侯任首相的樣子，正如他在議會的多數同僚所發現的那樣。
But the minority support he attracts to Labour — and more importantly the signal sent by the Brexiter majority in June — speak clearly of frustration and resentment at being left behind.
但是他爲工黨爭取到的少數羣體的支持——更重要的是退歐派在6月公投中以多數勝出所發出的信號——清楚表明了落後者對自身狀態的沮喪和怨恨。
It is the constituency to which Hillary Clinton spoke in her acceptance of the Democratic nomination in the US presidential race: Some of you are frustrated — even furious.
希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)在接受民主黨總統候選人提名的演講中說：你們中一些人感到沮喪——甚至憤怒。
And you know what? You’re right.
你們知道嗎？你們沒錯。這話正是對這部分選民說的。
Other EU countries are not faced with Frexit, Itexit or Deuxit but their political establishments also have left-behinders who refuse to support the mainstream parties.
法國、意大利、德國等歐盟其他國家沒有出現退歐運動，但是他們的政治建制派也面對着拒絕支持主流政黨的落後者。
The popularity rating of Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front, rose to 27 per cent, according to a BVA opinion poll published last month, surpassing François Hollande, the Socialist president, and Nicolas Sarkozy, the former president, of the centre-right Republicans.
根據BVA上月公佈的一份民調結果，極右翼政黨國民陣線(National Front)的領袖馬琳•勒龐的支持率上升至27%，超過了社會黨(Socialist)總統弗朗索瓦•奧朗德(François Hollande)以及中右翼政黨共和黨(Republicans)領袖、前總統尼古拉•薩科齊(Nicolas Sarkozy)。
In Italy, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s Democratic party lost the mayoralties of Rome and Turin in June to the Five Star Movement, an inchoate populist party that demands a referendum on the euro and leads, narrowly, in several opinion polls.
6月，意大利總理馬泰奧•倫齊(Matteo Renzi)領導的民主黨(Democratic party)在羅馬市長和都靈市長選舉中輸給了五星運動黨(Five Star Movement)。後者是新興的民粹主義政黨，主張就是否留在歐元區進行公投，在多項民調中以微弱優勢領先。
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) won seats in some state legislatures this year and is calling for a vote on EU membership.
今年德國新選擇黨(Alternative for Germany)在一些州議會贏得了席位，該黨正在呼籲就是否留在歐盟內進行投票。
The anti-immigrant Swedish Democrats have been challenging the Social Democrats, who lead the government, in opinion polls.
反對移民的瑞典民主黨(Sweden Democrats)在民調中對執政黨社會民主黨(Social Democrats)形成挑戰。
In Austria, the re-run of April’s election in October may put Norbert Hofer of the far-right Freedom party in the presidential palace.
在奧地利，10月重新舉行的總統大選可能會將極右翼自由黨的諾貝特•霍弗(Norbert Hofer)推到總統寶座上。
In the US and Europe, rising inequality, wage stagnation and workplace insecurity merge with concern about fragmenting communities, exacerbated by fear of unregulated immigration and terrorism.
在美國和歐洲，不斷加劇的不平等、薪資停滯不前、工作不安全感與對社會分裂的關切交織在一起，難以控制的移民和恐怖主義令這一切雪上加霜。
The fusion of these forces produces a popular energy that in America went rightwards, to Mr Trump of the Republicans, and left to Bernie Sanders, Mrs Clinton’s former rival for the Democratic nomination.
這些因素融合在一起，催生了一股民衆的能量。在美國，這股能量向右走，就托起了共和黨的特朗普；向左走，就托起了此前與希拉里競爭民主黨候選人提名的伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)。
In Europe, it mainly goes to the right.
在歐洲，這股能量主要向右走。
A large part of working class voters in the leading states of the democratic west favour rightwing politics as a bulwark against immigration, as a protest against the ending of secure work with steadily rising incomes and as a poke in the eye of their elites.
在主要的西方民主國家，很大一部分工人階級選民支持右翼政黨，因爲右翼政黨是抵禦移民的堡壘，是對收入穩步增長、工作有保障時代走到盡頭的抗議，是精英階層的眼中釘。
After the June referendum in the UK, mainly working and lower middle-class people appeared in interviews lamenting the loss of community, the presence of immigrants who did not become part of it, and the threat of the EU displacing Westminster as a sovereign power.
6月英國退歐公投結束後，一些民衆在接受採訪時痛惜融洽的社會不復存在、未融入英國社會的移民以及英國的主權可能被歐盟奪走——這些受訪者主要來自工人階級和中產階級下層。
Such talk is often dismissed as a search for better yesterdays but it also speaks to a wish to make the UK a better place than it has, for these respondents, become.
人們往往認爲這些話不過是懷念過去的好日子，但其實這些話也傳達出這些受訪者的一個願望——希望英國對他們而言變得更好。
Mr Corbyn wants to make his country a better place through socialism; Mr Trump favours America First; Ms Le Pen, national revival outside the EU.
科爾賓希望通過社會主義讓英國變得更好；特朗普信奉美國優先(America First)；勒龐主張在歐盟之外實現民族復興。
Too few critics recognise that for millions these are sketches of a better society.
幾乎沒有任何批評者意識到，對於許多選民來說，這些主張描繪了一個更好的社會。
The established parties will probably prevail.
老牌政黨可能最終會贏。
Mrs Clinton is probably the next US president.
希拉里很可能會成爲下一任美國總統。
Mr Corbyn is not expected to occupy 10 Downing Street.
科爾賓預計不會入主唐寧街10號。
Ms Le Pen may make it into the second round of the presidential election — only to be beaten heavily in the final vote, just as her father was in 2002.
勒龐可能會進入總統大選的第二輪——但在決選投票中依然會慘敗，就像2002年她父親的遭遇一樣。
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government still commands the centre, right and left.
德國總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)政府仍然掌控着中翼、右翼和左翼。
But the new normal is not likely to be a return to settled party rule.
但是新的常態不太可能重返過去穩定的黨派執政。
Political elites have neither vigorously enough renewed their offerings to the electors nor shared their disillusionment.
政治精英既沒有足夠有力地更新對選民的承諾，也沒有設身處地體會他們的幻滅。
The moderates in the UK Labour party, for example, have failed to produce a vision for a new relationship between social democracy and a much changed capitalism and globalisation since the Third Way debates under Tony Blair in the 1990s.
例如，自上世紀90年代託尼•布萊爾(Tony Blair)領導下有關第三條道路(Third Way)的辯論以來，英國工黨中的溫和派一直未能描繪出，社會民主主義與已經大爲改變的資本主義以及全球化之間應構建怎樣的新關係。
In Europe, the future of the euro is threatened by EU ambivalence about where sovereignty should lie and the failure of the single currency to be either stable or a mechanism for closer union.
在歐洲，兩件事正威脅着歐元的未來：歐盟對主權適用範圍猶豫不決、以及單一貨幣既沒能實現穩定也沒能成爲促進歐盟團結的手段。
This is a fearful time, with popular authoritarian leaders to Europe’s east probing for advantage.
這是個可怕的時代，在歐洲以東，受到民衆歡迎的威權領導人正在探尋有利條件。
Liberals of left or right cannot emulate the populists but their leaders have no choice but to work harder at shaping a politics of freedom that does not feel like in-difference to left-behinders on the part of out-in-fronters.
自由派（無論左翼還是右翼）不能效仿民粹主義者，但是自由派領導人別無選擇，必須更努力地改變自由主義政治的面貌，不能讓人覺得它代表着精英人士對落後者的漠視。
