對抗恐怖主義需培育社會韌性
Life goes on in Brussels, Nice and other places that have recently suffered terrorist attacks. Citizens’ resilience seems remarkable. But fear is here. It travels on the metro in Paris and on the tube in London. It sits on sunny café terraces. Friends reconsider their annual trip to Munich’s Oktoberfest.
在近來遭受過恐怖襲擊的布魯塞爾、尼斯等地，生活還在繼續。公民的“韌性”看起來相當不錯。但恐懼並未散去，它瀰漫在巴黎、倫敦的地鐵，駐足於陽光明媚的露天咖啡屋。我的朋友們正在重新考慮要不要去參加一年一度的慕尼黑啤酒節(Oktoberfest)。
Until recently, personal safety was a marginal concern to the vast majority of people in the EU. Now, terrorism challenges our way of life. We understand that violence in varying shapes and forms will be part of the world we live in.
直到最近，生活在歐盟(EU)的絕大多數人都不怎麼擔心自己的人身安全。如今，恐怖主義正在挑戰我們的生活方式。我們知道，各種形式的暴力將成爲我們所生活的這個世界的一部分。
Within months, the thinking about security in Europe has significantly changed. The EU recently published its global strategy, which sets out its core interests and principles. It rightly underlines that we cannot fend off threats abroad and that external and internal security are inextricably linked. Governments are stepping up internal security measures.
幾個月時間裏，歐洲關於安全問題的思路已經發生顯著變化。歐盟最近公佈了確立其核心利益及原則的全球戰略。它準確地強調，我們無法阻擋來自國外的威脅，外部與內部安全密不可分。各國政府正在加強國內安全措施。
France has announced the creation of a national guard of volunteers from police and military reserves to help protect citizens. Germany has proposed enhanced surveillance and monitoring of refugees. These measures will improve responses in the event of a major attack and will help prevent other attacks. But given the changing nature of terrorist threats, governments cannot guarantee citizens’ safety. The global strategy acknowledges this by focusing on resilience: the capacity to recover quickly from disaster.
法國已宣佈建立一支由警察和軍隊預備役人員組成的志願者國民衛隊，以協助保護本國公民。德國提出加強監控以及加強對難民的監視。這些措施將提升發生重大襲擊時的反應能力，並將有助於阻止其他襲擊。但考慮到恐怖主義威脅的多變性，各國政府無法擔保本國公民的安全。上述全球戰略通過聚焦韌性——迅速從災禍中恢復的能力——承認了這一點。
We indeed need a better understanding of what determines our societies’ resilience — and how terrorists and others undermine it — rather than focusing primarily on security.
我們的確需要更好地瞭解是什麼決定了我們社會的韌性（以及恐怖分子等羣體如何削弱這種韌性），而不是隻着眼於安全問題。
The greatest strength of western societies is their open, connected and diverse nature. This is also their weak spot when confronted by violence driven by religious extremism.
西方社會的最大優勢在於其開放、互聯以及多樣化。但在面對宗教極端主義帶來的暴力時，這些優勢就成了薄弱點。
Pluralist societies need ethnic and religious groups to live together peacefully, with respect, tolerance and trust. But Islamist terrorism seeds distrust and conflict. If prejudice and marginalisation are the reaction to religious extremism, this can foster further radicalisation, as stigmatised minority groups may seek new, dangerous ways of self-identification. Policymakers need to engage with citizens, reinforcing integration and social cohesion, and to work against discrimination; not only to prevent further attacks but to increase resilience if they do occur.
多元化社會需要各民族、宗教羣體和平地生活在一起，彼此尊重、寬容和信任。但伊斯蘭恐怖主義散播猜疑和衝突。如果用歧視和邊緣化某些少數族羣來回應宗教極端主義，可能導致進一步的激進化，因爲被抹黑的少數族羣可能會尋求新的、危險的自我認同方式。決策者必須與公民保持接觸，增強族羣融合和社會凝聚力，反對歧視；這不僅是爲了阻止新的襲擊，也是爲了增強社會的韌性——如果襲擊真的發生的話。
Resilience is not a characteristic usually associated with countries or organisations. We are more used to thinking of it as belonging to individuals who manage to survive and thrive after a traumatic event. Psychologists have identified what makes someone resilient: positive attitudes, optimism, social support and networks of trusted friends. They emphasise the significance of economic stability and social equality. So the second task for policymakers is to provide realistic socio-economic perspectives for current and future generations, bearing in mind that globalisation and crises in Europe are likely to continue to affect its citizens for many years.
韌性並不是一個經常與國家或組織聯繫在一起的特徵。這個詞更常用於指一些人擁有的一種品質，這種品質讓他們在遭遇痛苦經歷後不僅挺過來、還變得更加強大。心理學家確認的讓人具有韌性的因素包括：積極的態度、樂觀、社會支持以及值得信賴的朋友圈。他們強調了經濟穩定、社會平等的重要性。因此，決策者的第二個任務是爲當下以及未來數代人提供以現實的方式看待社會和經濟的視角，始終牢記全球化以及歐洲的危機可能在未來數年繼續影響本國公民。
Until recently, Europeans have been passively resilient, patient in the hope that elected elites would find a way to offer them greater certainty in their jobs and in life. But as economic and societal inequality has risen, welfare promises have been broken. This may prove dangerous. As Jim Collins, a management consultant and author, has warned: “If there is anything that will destroy resilience, it is hope dashed and dashed again.”
直到最近，歐洲人一直在被動地保持韌性，耐心期待選舉出的精英們會找到爲他們的工作、生活提供更大確定性的方法。但隨着經濟、社會不平等的加劇，福利方面承諾已被打破。事實或許會證明這是危險的。正如管理顧問、作家吉姆•柯林斯(Jim Collins)曾警告過的：“如果有什麼能夠摧毀韌性的話，那就是一次又一次希望破滅。”
The current situation is fertile territory for those who seek strategically to undermine western liberal society. Beyond terrorism, Russian propaganda within the EU works to that effect. Trump-like populists in Europe and the US challenge western liberal democracy from within, and with it, our resilience.
對於那些試圖有策略地削弱西方自由社會的人來說，當前的形勢非常有利。除了恐怖主義，俄羅斯在歐盟內部的宣傳也起到這樣的作用。在歐洲和美國，類似特朗普的民粹主義者正在從內部挑戰西方的自由民主制度以及與之聯繫在一起的社會韌性。
This is why democratic leaders have to join the battle of ideas and be more audible in defending their ideals. They need to fight nondemocratic, antiliberal and extremist propaganda proactively and show vision and the capacity to recast in adverse circumstances.
這就是爲什麼民主國家的領導人必須加入這場思想之戰，更加旗幟鮮明地捍衛自己的理想。他們需要主動抗擊非民主、反自由以及極端主義的宣傳，並展示遠見卓識以及在逆境中重新振作的能力。
Betting on passive resilience and on the hope that in the long run the western democratic model will win is risky and complacent. The disconnect between elites and people, mixed with widespread pessimism about the future, is a dangerous setting in which the populists’ siren song can destroy the “hydraulics” of resilience.
押注於被動的韌性並寄希望於西方民主模式從長遠而言會取得勝利，這有些冒險和掉以輕心。精英與民衆之間的脫節加上對未來的普遍悲觀構成了一種危險局面，在這種局面中民粹主義者的“妖言”可能會瓦解韌性的力量。
There is a high chance of more attacks. Western societies need to rely on the processes of liberal democracy and the rule of law to overcome crises in a robust social and institutional environment. By doing so, we will not let terrorism paralyse our way of life.
未來發生更多襲擊的可能性很高。西方社會需要在一個強健的社會和制度環境中依靠自由民主制度的各項程序和法治來克服各種危機。通過這種方式，我們不會讓恐怖主義摧毀我們的生活方式。
