社會觀察:中國樓市冷與熱

A BMW is hardly a sign of that times are tough. But in China, one Wenzhou property developer offered a free German-made car to would-be buyers to boost sales. China’s property boom and bust is one of the most debated topics in the world. Most observers agree that a slowdown, led by a government determined to stop the market getting out of control, is under way. Yet the stocks and bonds of many of the companies exposed are booming. 我們很難把寶馬(BMW)車與不景氣聯繫在一起。但在中國，溫州一家房地產開發商卻推出了“買房送寶馬”的促銷活動。中國房地產市場是將繼續繁榮還是將走向蕭條，這是世人議論最多的話題之一。多數觀察人士都認爲，在中國政府防止市場失控的決心的驅動下，房地產市場的增長正在減速。然而，許多房地產企業的股票和債券都漲勢良好。

Shares of the five biggest Hong Kong-listed, China-domiciled developers by market capitalisation have jumped by an average 70 per cent since the beginning of October — shortly before the BMWs were thrown in. Their bonds, including those of Agile Property and Evergrande, have zoomed from trading at less than three-quarters of face value to nearly par. Agile is poised to sell $500m in new bonds this week at prices similar to those it paid in 2010. And yet China’s property market is clearly weakening. China Vanke, a domestically-listed sector bellwether, this month said contracted sales for the first two months of 2012 were down 27 per cent from last year. 去年10月初（“買房送寶馬”活動推出前不久）以來，在香港上市的五大（以市值計）內地開發商的股價平均累計上漲了70%。五大開發商——包括雅居樂(Agile Property)和恆大地產(Evergrande)——的債券價格已從不到票面價格的四分之三驟升至接近票面價格。雅居樂計劃在本週發行5億美元新債，發行價格將與2010年的價格差不多。儘管如此，中國房地產市場走弱的勢頭仍很明顯。在內地上市的萬科（Vanke，地產板塊領頭羊）本月表示，今年頭兩個月的銷售額同比下降了27%。

Some of the rally has been of the relief variety. Investors suddenly stampeded for the exits last summer yet the property market did not completely crash. And companies have also been preparing for the worst: many of them used buoyant markets early last year to refinance debt early, easing near-term strains. In the slump that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers, net debt averaged 4 times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation for the Hong Kong-listed groups. Now, that ratio is a far more manageable 2 times. 上述回升在某種程度上可視爲觸底反彈。去年夏天，投資者突然瘋狂離場，但房地產市場並未完全崩盤。房地產企業也一直在做最壞的打算：去年早些時候，許多房企利用市場行情看漲之機提前對債券進行了再融資，以減輕近期的資金壓力。雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒閉後的蕭條期，在港上市內地房企的淨債務平均爲稅息折舊及攤銷前利潤的(EBITDA)的四倍；如今，這一比例已降爲兩倍，財務狀況可控程度大大提高。

The rally has not been even, however. Shares of the smallest developers have risen by an average of just 6 per cent — a figure that covers performances ranging from a one-fifth fall to a two-fifths gain — as their big rivals uniformly leapt. A relief rally is one thing. But those new BMW owners have plenty of justification for still feeling nervous behind the wheel. 不過，上述回升並不均衡。小開發商的股價平均僅上漲6%（表現最差的股票價格下跌了五分之一，最好的上漲了五分之二），大開發商的股價則全部大幅上漲。儘管出現了反彈式回升，但那些寶馬車的新主人們還是有很多理由繼續感到不安。