買家重返中國樓市?

On the sandy plains east of Beijing, The World is in trouble. The property development was supposed to bring five continents, in the form of artificial islands, to scrubby farmland near the booming city of Tianjin.
在北京以東的沙質平原上，“星耀五洲”(The World)項目陷於困境。這個房地產開發項目原本要以人工島的形式，把五大洲搬到繁榮發展的天津附近的貧瘠農地。
Instead, the enormous project, which is about three times the size of New York's Central Park, exemplifies both the excesses and more recent sharp downturn in China's property market.
可到頭來，這個佔地面積大約是紐約中央公園(Central Park) 3倍的巨大項目，既體現出中國房產市場的過度建設，也突顯出該市場近期的急轉直下。
Asia and North America's villas and tower blocks are mostly finished, but only about 20 homes out of thousands of units are occupied. And with the developer running out of funds, construction has virtually ground to a halt, leaving Europe, Africa and South America in varying states of underdevelopment.
“亞洲”和“北美洲”大陸上的別墅和高樓已基本完工，但在成千上萬套住宅中，只有大約20套有人居住。同時，由於開發商資金拮据，建築工作已幾乎停止，使得“歐洲”、“非洲”和“南美洲”處在不同程度的欠開發階段。
The World was designed to house 100,000 people, an indoor ski dome, a replica of San Francisco's Golden Gate Bridge and a seven-star hotel. Its troubles echo those of another project that goes by the same name — the archipelago of island homes started in Dubai before the global financial crisis.
“星耀五洲”的設計意圖是容納10萬居民，提供一個室內滑雪場、一座舊金山金門大橋(Golden Gate Bridge)的複製品，以及一家七星級酒店。該項目的困境與迪拜在全球金融危機爆發前開工的“世界島”項目遭遇的麻煩如出一轍。
"It's definitely not an ideal time to be in the property business," said a receptionist in the showroom.
“現在肯定不是做房地產生意的理想時機，”展示中心的一名接待人員表示。
The property market is the single most important engine of economic growth in China, making its fate a global concern. Housing prices spiralled in the wake of the global financial crisis when the government launched a huge fiscal stimulus programme to boost the economy.
房地產市場是推動中國經濟增長的最重要發動機，這使得該市場的興衰成爲一項全球關切。全球金融危機過後，中國房價一度扶搖直上，當時政府出臺了一套鉅額財政刺激計劃，意在提振經濟。
Beijing shifted gears in 2010, turning the screw on speculators to rein in house prices and reckless investment, which officials feared could put the economy at risk. Prices have finally started to fall, and the government wants to see them fall further. However, developers warn that what has been a mild correction could turn into a rout if Beijing does not let up.
北京方面在2010年調整政策，對投機者施加壓力，以求抑制房價和盲目投資。官員們擔心，樓市過熱可能給整體經濟帶來風險。如今房價終於開始下跌，而政府希望看到房價進一步回落。不過，開發商們警告稱，如果北京方面不放鬆調控力度，迄今的小幅回落可能演變成一場崩盤。
Despite this gloomy prognosis, The World is showing signs of life. After a quiet stretch, buyers have confounded expectations and started to return. One day last month, a few people were in the showroom, surveying a model of the development and talking to agents.
儘管存在這種悲觀的展望，但“星耀五洲”正展現出一些生機。與各方的預期相反，經過一段生意清淡的時間後，買家們又開始上門了。上月的某一天，展示中心裏有幾個人在看項目模型，並與售樓代理交談。
A middle-aged woman clutching a Louis Vuitton bag said she and her husband already owned "seven or eight homes" on the southern island of Hainan and were trying to diversify geographically.
拿着一個路易威登(LV)手袋的一名中年女士說，她和丈夫在海南島已經擁有“七八套住房”，目前正試圖從地理上分散投資。
"We heard about this project and wanted to come to see it," said Ms Sun, who declined to give her first name. "We're mainly worried about buying at the right time, before the government loosens policy and prices start rising again."
“我們聽說了這個項目，就想過來看一看，”不願提供全名的孫女士表示。“我們主要關心的是在正確的時機出手購買，趕在政府放鬆政策、房價再度開始上漲之前。”
The World was not the only complex to benefit — the housing market perked up across China in February. According to local property websites, deals increased 17 per cent month-on-month in Beijing, 24 per cent in the wealthy eastern city of Hangzhou and also climbed at the end of the month in the metropolises of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou.
“星耀五洲”並不是僅有的一個出現轉機的開發項目。2月份中國各地的房地產市場均出現起色。根據中國一些房地產網站的數據，北京的房地產成交量環比增長17%，富裕的華東城市杭州增長24%。接近上月底之際，上海、深圳和廣州等大城市的房地產成交量也有所增長。

The rise was partly seasonal, as there were few buyers in January when China came to a standstill for the lunar new year festival.
這種增長在一定程度上是季節性的，因爲1月份適逢春節假期，買家偏少。
Yet many like Ms Sun were also betting on something more fundamental: that Beijing would back down in its longstanding tightening campaign, allowing the housing market to soar once more. That expectation fuelled a 20 per cent jump in the shares of the country's biggest developers such as Vanke and Evergrande last month.
但是，許多像孫女士這樣的人，也在押注於一些更爲根本的動向，即北京方面將放鬆實行已久的宏觀調控，允許樓市再度飆升。這種期望推動萬科(Vanke)和恆大(Evergrande)等中國大型開發商的股價上月大漲20%。
But central government has shown no sign of taking its foot off the brake. At every turn, Wen Jiabao, the premier, has reiterated that he still wants to reduce prices to more affordable levels. A few cities, desperate for revenue from land sales, have tried to loosen policy, only to be slapped back into line by Beijing.
但是，中央政府並未顯露出放鬆調控力度的任何跡象。溫家寶總理利用每一個機會重申，他仍希望房價回落至更容易承受的水平。幾個急於從土地銷售獲得財政收入的城市，已試圖放鬆政策，結果都被中央政府制止。
Ni Zhengzhen, a contractor at The World with a crew of electricians and plumbers, predicted that the government would soon lose its nerve.
倪崢臻（音譯）是“星耀五洲”工地上的一個承包商，手下有一批電工和水管工。他預計，政府很快就將被迫放鬆政策。
"Our country needs housing construction. It's what drives the economy. They've got to let money back into the sector. We're all suffering and short of cash," he said.
“我們國家需要住房建設。這是經濟的推動力。他們必須讓資金重返房地產行業。現在大家都在受苦，短缺現金，”他表示。
Pointing to a grey-haired worker in a greatcoat held together by clothes pins, he added: "If there's no money, he won't get paid and will lose his job. The government doesn't want that."
他指着一名頭髮灰白、身穿一件用曬衣夾夾住的大衣的工人說：“要是沒錢，他就拿不到工資，就會失去工作。政府不希望發生這種事。”
While Beijing is worried about high property prices, it is also concerned about the potential for unrest, particularly as the Communist party prepares to change its leadership.
儘管北京方面擔心房價偏高，但它也擔憂不安定的潛在可能，尤其是在共產黨準備進行領導層換屆之際。
Mr Ni has already cut his crew from a peak of 200 to about 20. And he has also accepted property as payment — he owns two villas and two apartments in North America.
倪崢臻已將自己手下的隊伍從頂峯時的200人精簡至大約20人。他還接受了一些房產作爲付款，目前他擁有“北美洲”的兩座別墅和兩套公寓。
Investment in housing directly accounts for about 10 per cent of China's economy. Through its indirect impact on companies from steel mills to fridge makers, it is even more important.
住宅投資在中國經濟中佔大約10%的直接比重。若計入該行業給從鋼廠到冰箱廠帶來的間接影響，其重要性更高。
But the highway from The World to downtown Tianjin, a 40km stretch of new towers and construction sites, is a reminder of why the government has been so determined to cool the property market.
但是，從“星耀五洲”到天津市中心的40公里高速公路沿途到處都是新建高樓和建築工地，這提醒人們中國政府爲什麼如此堅決地要讓樓市降溫。
"The situation of housing prices continually increasing and local governments selling more and more of their land to finance their investments?.?.?.?is crazy. This is destroying our economy. No economy can grow like that," said Li Daokui, a Tsinghua University professor and an adviser to the central bank.
“房價不斷上漲、地方政府出售越來越多土地以資助自身投資的局面……是瘋狂的。這種局面正在摧毀我們的經濟。沒有一個經濟體能夠這樣增長，”清華大學(Tsinghua University)教授、中國央行顧問李稻葵表示。
"If it continues, the fundamental health of the country's economy will be in jeopardy."
“如果這種局面持續下去，中國經濟的根本健康將陷入危險。”
譯者:和風