有關中國樓市供應過剩的問與答

China's smaller cities are now the scene of a housing glut, which could undermine China's growth. What are the possible consequences? How are developers reacting? Is the government doing anything about it?

Tim Franco for The Wall Street Journal目前，中國的中小型城市出現了住宅供應過剩的情況，這可能會損害中國的經濟增長。那麼這種情況可能會帶來什麼後果呢？開發商作何反應？中國政府又有何舉措？

Below WSJ reporters Esther Fung and Bob Davis answer those and other questions.

以下是《華爾街日報》(The Wall Street Journal)記者方心恩(Esther Fung)和戴維斯(Bob Davis)對相關問題的回答。

Why are the recent price cuts so bad? Isn't this just the market at work--less demand, ergo lower prices?

爲何近期的降價潮有嚴重的負面作用？這難道不是需求減少導致房價下跌這種市場機制起作用的結果嗎？

The same could have been said for the U.S. in 2007. Falling prices in Las Vegas, Bakersfield, Miami were just the market at work. The problem is that if prices fall too far, they don't invite more people to invest in property. Just the opposite. Would-be buyers keep their wallets closed, fearing that the value of a home will go down in value.

相關報道中國樓市增長放緩 市場各方憂心忡忡博客：營口房地產市場冷過冬天博客：誰會點燃中國經濟火藥桶？美國2007年的房地產市場情況或許可以這麼說。當時拉斯維加斯、貝克爾斯菲市以及邁阿密的房價下跌都是市場機制起作用的結果。問題是，如果房價跌幅太大，就無法吸引更多人來投資，只會產生相反的作用。潛在購房者將會捂緊錢包，因爲擔心房價會進一步下跌。

That's particularly a problem in China, where people have thought for 20 years that real estate prices can only go up in value. If that psychology switches, it's a huge problem.

這在中國尤其是個問題。在中國，人們最近20年來一直認爲房價只會上漲。如果這種心態發生轉變，將出現很大的問題。

There was concern that the property bubble had burst in 2011. What's different now?

曾有人擔心中國房地產泡沫已在2011年破裂。現在的情況有何不同？

In 2011, the big worry was escalating prices in China's major cities putting apartments out of the reach of all but the rich. The central government implemented property curbs, such as limits on multiple home purchases, to rein in speculation and frothy prices. After two tough years for developers, prices started heading up again smartly last year.

2011年，最大的擔憂是中國主要城市節節攀升的房價已超出除富人以外羣體的購買能力。爲此，中國中央政府實施了多套住房限購等房地產調控舉措，以遏制房地產投機和高房價。而經過對開發商而言較爲艱難的兩年之後，去年房價又開始大幅上漲。

What makes the current problem different is that a) the problem is more widespread, hitting lots of small and medium-sized cities, b) the issue is a glut rather than rising prices, and c) China's finances are tied ever more tightly to real estate.

當前情況有所不同，主要體現在三個方面：a)現在的房地產泡沫問題更加廣泛，已波及很多中小型城市；b)現在的問題是供應過剩，而不是房價上漲；c)中國財政與房地產之間的關係比以往任何時候都更爲緊密。

Since 2008, debt in China has grown at a pace similar to the U.S, Europe, Japan and South Korea before they fell into deep recessions. One big reason for the run-up in debt is lending to real estate developers. If developers can't afford to make payments on their loans because they can't sell enough apartments, China has a big problem.

自2008年以來，中國的債務增速和美國、歐洲、日本和韓國陷入嚴重衰退前的速度不相上下。債務增加的一個原因是對房地產開發商的貸款增加。如果開發商因爲無法銷售足夠多的房子而還不起貸款，中國就會出大問題。

Speaking of which, how are developers paying their bills?

說到這一問題，房地產企業目前的應付帳務支付情況如何呢？

Many construction companies are getting paid in apartments as developers become more and more cash-strapped, according to Zhou Liping, a property consultant at Jiangsu Lianmeng Property Consultancy. 'It's quite common, ' he said, adding that some of these construction companies then use the apartments as collateral when they take on bank loans.

據Jiangsu Lianmeng Property Consultancy的地產顧問周麗萍（音）表示，由於開發商的資金日趨緊張，它們將房子衝抵建築工程款支付給很多建築公司，這種情況很普遍。周麗萍還稱，有些建築公司再將房子作爲抵押品向銀行貸款。

Are there signs of construction workers losing their jobs?

是否有建築工人失業的跡象？

Certainly it's a danger. Unfortunately, unemployment data is unreliable in China and it isn't counted by occupation. So far, there is no sign of widespread job loss. There are still more jobs than workers seeking jobs, largely as a result of demographic changes that are reducing the size of the Chinese workforce.

肯定存在這種可能性。不幸的是，在中國失業率數據並不可靠，而且不是以行業來劃分的。目前爲止，中國並未出現大量失業的跡象，招聘崗位的數量甚至還大於求職者人數，這主要是因爲人口結構改變導致中國勞動力人數減少所致。

What are some signs that the growing glut is having economic ripples?

哪些跡象表明住房供應過剩日趨嚴重已對經濟產生影響？

Copper prices have been falling since 2010, with analysts blaming slack demand in China as one reason. Copper is used in roofs, gutters and building expansion joints. Meanwhile, ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker, has forecast slower growth in Chinese steel demand this year due to more muted construction demand growth.

銅價自2010年以來一直在下跌，分析師認爲中國需求疲軟是銅價下跌的原因之一。銅被用於屋頂、排水溝和建築伸縮裝置中。另外，全球最大的鋼鐵生產商安賽樂米塔爾(ArcelorMittal)也預測，由於建築業需求增長更加乏力，中國今年的鋼材需求增幅將放緩。

Retail sales growth has also slowed recently, due in part to falling growth in sales of appliance s and furniture, both linked tightly to apartment purchases.

中國近期的零售額增幅也在放緩，一定程度上是因爲與購房着密切相關的家電和傢俱的銷量增幅下降。

What is the government doing about it?

政府採取了什麼措施？

The central government has indicated that it would allow local governments to adopt their own market regulations rather than implement a one-size-fits-all policy.

中國中央政府已經表示，將允許地方政府實施針對本地市場的相關規定，而不是採取“一刀切”的政策。

In some areas, local governments are trying help out. In Fenghua, government officials are trying to stave off a default by a local developer. In Changzhou, the government has been trying to keep discounts to a minimum to prop up the housing market. In Yingkou, the government has reduced fees and taxes for new purchases and made it easy for new buyers to get the residence permits necessary to obtain social welfare benefits, including public education for their children. So far, these measures have had only a limited impact on boosting sales.

在一些地區，地方政府正在試圖施以援手。在奉化，當地政府官員正在試圖避免一家本地開發商出現債務違約。在常州，爲支持當地房地產市場，當地政府正試圖限制開發商的打折幅度；在營口，當地政府實施了減免新房購置相關稅費的措施，同時還採取措施讓新的購房者更加容易地獲得當地戶口，以便讓購房者享受包括子女教育在內的當地社會福利。不過迄今爲止，這些措施對於提振住宅銷量的作用都較爲有限。

Does this mean developers will finally start to cut back on their headlong, hell-for-leather building?

這是否意味着開發商們將最終開始削減倉促而急速的建設計劃？

Some of China's largest developers are now trying to focus again on China's biggest cities, where demand is stronger. But why do developers keep building in problem cities despite obvious lack of demand? Why did U.S. developers do the same thing? Developers are optimists and salesmen by nature. Each thinks that its project will thrive even as others don't.

中國的一些大型房地產開發商們目前正試圖將注意力重新轉回大城市，因爲這些城市的需求更加強勁。但是爲什麼在明顯缺乏需求的城市中，開發商仍在繼續蓋樓呢？爲什麼美國的房地產開發商也會做同樣的事情呢？這是因爲，開發商們都是樂觀派，他們本質上而言都是銷售人員。即使在其他開發商項目表現不佳的情況下，他們也會認爲自己的項目會成功。

According to Nomura, profits for a group of 142 listed property developers in China rose 581% between 2006 and 2012 and never fell during any of those years. Other non-financial companies saw profits rise 64% during that same period and profits sometimes fell year-to-year for that group.

根據野村(Nomura)的數據，在2006年-2012年期間，142家中國上市房企的利潤增長581%，期間任何一年都未出現過利潤下滑的情況。而在同一時期內，其他非金融企業的利潤增長64%，並且存在同比利潤出現下滑的情況。

'China's real estate developers are behaving like internet start-ups,' says Mark Williams, a China economist at the Capital Economics in London. 'They're focusing on grabbing market share in a growing market, but the smaller and medium-sized cities they are in aren't growing rapidly.'

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)駐倫敦的中國經濟學家威廉斯(Mark Williams)稱，中國房地產開發商的做法猶如互聯網初創企業；他們專注於在一個持續增長的市場中搶佔市場份額，但是他們所處的中小型城市的增長速度並不快。