英國大選 市場更應關心的問題

This week’s UK general election looks unlikely to deliver an overwhelming victory for either the Conservatives or the opposition Labour party — which leaves financial market participants unsure of what political climate they will be facing.

無論是保守黨還是反對黨工黨，看起來都不太可能在今天舉行的英國大選中獲得壓倒性勝利，這讓金融市場參與者不太確定他們將面臨何種政治氣候。

But those preoccupied with the implications of the parties’ differing policies on the economy and EU membership may well be worried about the wrong thing. More important, but less appreciated, are the distinct approaches of the main parties — and their allies in any coalition — towards a financial services industry that has yet to restore its credibility after the global crisis.

但有些人總是擔心各黨派在經濟以及是否退出歐盟方面的不同政策對金融市場造成的影響。他們很可能擔錯了心。更爲重要、但仍未得到足夠重視的是，主要黨派（以及他們可能結盟的黨派）對全球金融危機後仍未恢復信譽的金融服務行業採取的不同政策。

Conservative and Labour manifestos propose discrete policies for economic management; yet their ability to implement them is subject to considerable political and economic constraint.

保守黨和工黨的競選宣言表明了它們各自不同的經濟管理政策，然而它們執行政策的能力受到相當大的政治和經濟約束。

With neither party set for a big majority, there is limited scope for radical policy shifts. Neither will wish to put at risk a recovery that is impressive on job creation but, judging from last week’s gross domestic product data, yet to develop secure roots. It is likely the existing approach will be tweaked, with easing of austerity and marginal structural measures to boost productivity and growth.

由於保守黨和工黨都不會獲得壓倒性的勝利，根本性政策轉變的空間有限。這兩個政黨都不會希望讓經濟復甦處於危險之中（英國的經濟復甦在就業創造方面表現不錯，但從上週發佈的國內生產總值(GDP)數據來看，尚未形成穩固的基礎—）。現有政策很可能會被調整，例如放鬆緊縮措施、出臺溫和的結構性舉措，以推動生產率和增長。

In the absence of an ex¬treme partnership involving the Scottish National party or the UK Independence party, the two main parties would probably follow similar approaches to immigration and foreign policy — at least, alike enough for financial markets. The gap appears larger when it comes to the EU.

由於保守黨和工黨都不會建立將蘇格蘭民族黨(Scottish National Party)或者英國獨立黨(UK Independence party)包括在內的極端合作關係，兩大政黨在移民和外交政策方面的做法很可能差不多，至少對金融市場來說足夠類似。就是否退出歐盟來說，兩黨間的分歧似乎更大。

As the Tories promise a referendum on staying in Europe, a win for them would initially bring greater uncertainty. By undermining UK companies’ access to such a large market, an exit would weaken profits. Equities would underperform while bond spreads would widen as markets price in higher volatility risk. Yet it is unlikely that a vote would lead to an exit. It would probably take place after a re-elected Prime Minister David Cameron had secured concessions from fellow European leaders — not enough materially to alter the functioning of the single market but sufficient for the Tories to join other parties in urging continued membership. In such circumstances, UK voters are likely to choose staying in.

由於保守黨承諾就是否留在歐盟舉行公投，所以，該黨贏得大選將會在一開始帶來更大的不確定性。退出歐盟將削弱英國公司進入這個巨大市場的能力，從而降低它們的利潤。股市將會表現不佳，同時隨着市場反映更大的波動性風險，債券息差將會擴大。然而，公投不太可能導致英國退出歐盟。連任的英國首相戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)將會爭取到其他歐洲領導人的讓步（其幅度之大還不足以改變單一市場的運行，但足以讓保守黨加入其他黨派行列，敦促英國繼續留在歐盟），之後英國可能就會舉行公投。在這種情況下，英國選民可能會選擇留在歐盟。

Indeed, the biggest likely difference, and the one with the greatest potential financial market impact, lies elsewhere.

實際上，兩黨最明顯、而且對金融市場潛在影響最大的分歧在其他地方。

A Labour government would take a less lenient approach to financial services that are still not widely trusted. It would be more open to tighter regulation, pay limits and pursuing high-profile legal cases. It would engage in spirited debate with companies threatening, like HSBC, to move their headquarters from the UK, and would be less inclined to fight off EU regulation.

工黨政府將不會對仍未取得廣泛信任的金融服務業心慈手軟。它將更願意加大監管，限制薪酬並提起引人注目的法律訴訟。它將與匯豐(HSBC)等威脅要將總部搬離英國的公司展開激烈的辯論，同時也不願意挑戰歐盟監管法規。

With the sector shrinking as a result, markets would price in higher risk premiums for bonds and equities on account of a possible fall in liquidity levels — that is, tighter constraints on broker-dealers assuming significant counter-cyclical risk as end investors react to changes to fundamentals elsewhere.

金融服務業將因此收縮，鑑於流動性水平可能下降，債券和股票將獲得更高的風險溢價，也就是說，隨着最終投資者對其他地方的基本面改變作出反應，承擔巨大反週期風險的經紀自營商將受到更大約束。

Such an adjustment could be pronounced. Steps to boost growth and validate high financial asset prices, including infrastructure investment and tax reform, would then be needed. The alternative is asset prices that converge to the lower fundamentals, overshoot them and risk contaminating the general economy.

此類調整可能是顯而易見的。屆時將有必要出臺舉措促進增長並讓基本面跟上拔高的金融資產價格，包括基礎設施投資和稅收改革。否則資產價格就會向較低的基本面趨同，與基本面相比偏高，還有可能毒害整個經濟。

So markets should put worries about traditional questions on the economy and the EU to one side and turn their focus instead to guarding against the gross underpricing of liquidity risk.

因此市場應該將對傳統的經濟和歐盟問題的擔憂擱置一邊，將注意力轉向防範對流動性風險的普遍低估。