法國大選結果提振金融市場

Relief swept through European financial markets yesterday after centrist Emmanuel Macron made it into the run-off for the French presidency, sending the euro to its highest level against the dollar in five months and shares in French banks soaring.

歐洲金融市場昨日鬆了一口氣，原因是中間立場的埃馬紐埃爾?馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)進入法國大選第二輪。歐元兌美元匯率達到5個月來最高水平，法國銀行股飆升。

French government bond prices also rallied, with the difference in annual French and German borrowing costs on 10-year sovereign bonds — a closely watched indicator of market sentiment — falling to below 50 basis points for the first time since late January.

法國政府債券價格同樣飆升，法國和德國10年期主權債券的收益率之差——備受關注的市場情緒指標——回落至50個基點以下，這是自1月下旬以來首次出現這一情況。

Investors said Mr Macron’s victory in Sunday’s first round, with 23.8 per cent of the vote, ensured a candidate with a mainstream economic reform agenda would take on — and be likely to defeat — Marine Le Pen, the rightwing populist urging euro exit.

投資者稱，馬克龍在週日的第一輪投票中以23.8%的支持率取勝，確保了將有一名主張主流經濟改革議程的候選人挑戰——並且很可能打敗——敦促退出歐元區的右翼民粹主義者馬琳?勒龐(Marine Le Pen)。

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the far-left candidate with similar anti-EU sentiments, had surged in the campaign’s final days, sending jitters through markets that France could be heading to a showdown between two economic radicals.

帶有類似反歐情緒的極左翼候選人呂克?梅朗雄(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)的支持率在大選最後幾天飆升，這給市場帶來了不安情緒：法國可能面臨兩個經濟激進者的對決。

“The extreme scenarios have evaporated,” said Philippe Ithurbide, head of research for Amundi, Europe’s largest asset manager.

“這種極端情況最終沒有出現，”歐洲最大的資產管理公司東方匯(Amundi)的研究主管菲利普?伊蒂爾比德(Philippe Ithurbide)表示。

Before Sunday’s vote, the size of hedge fund bets against the euro using option contracts was the largest in six weeks, according to US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

美國商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC)的數據顯示，在週日投票前，對衝基金利用期權合約看空歐元的規模達到6周來最高水平。

Mr Macron’s victory also renewed trust in French opinion polling. Projections predicted the former economy minister would make the second round in two weeks and are also forecasting that he will handily defeat Ms Le Pen in the run-off. An Ipsos poll on Sunday showed 62 per cent support for Mr Macron and 38 per cent for Ms Le Pen.

馬克龍的獲勝還恢復了人們對法國民調的信任。民調預測顯示，這位前經濟部長將進入第二輪投票，還預測他將在第二輪輕鬆打敗勒龐。週日Ipsos一份民調顯示，馬克龍擁有62%的支持率，而勒龐的支持率爲38%。

In a sign of the rally’s strength, trading was heavy with the volume of French bonds changing hands at four times recent levels. French banks rose nearly 10 per cent, helping the CAC 40 index climb 4 per cent.

突顯此輪漲勢強勁程度的一個跡象是，交易量很大，法國債券的換手率達到近期水平的4倍。法國銀行股上漲近10%，拉動法國CAC40指數上漲4%。

The European advance helped spark a rally on Wall Street, with the Nasdaq Composite index hitting an intraday high and the broader S&P 500 opening up 1 per cent and maintaining those levels throughout most of the trading day.

歐洲的漲勢推動了華爾街上漲，納斯達克綜合指數(Nasdaq Composite)觸及盤中高點，追蹤大盤的標普500指數(S&P 500)開盤上漲1%，並在整個交易日的大部分時間維持了這種水平。

The emerging signs of geopolitical stability — Dutch voters last month returned centre-right prime minister Mark Rutte to office after he beat a similarly rightwing challenger — has allowed investors to refocus on signs of growth in the EU’s common currency area.

地緣政治趨穩的新跡象——上月荷蘭選民讓中右翼首相馬克?呂特(Mark Rutte)重回執政崗位，此前他打敗了類似的右翼挑戰者——使得投資者把關注點重新放在歐元區的增長跡象上。

Data this month showed unemployment at an eight-year low and manufacturing surveys indicating their strongest output since the eurozone debt crisis.

本月數據表明，歐元區失業率降至8年低點，而製造業調查表明，產出達到自歐元區債務危機以來的最強水平。

“Markets can finally focus on the positive macroeconomic picture of the euro-area: higher growth than the US, a large current account surplus and core inflation turning higher,” said Bilal Hafeez, a Nomura foreign exchange strategist.

“市場終於可以聚焦歐元區積極的宏觀經濟形勢：增長率高於美國，較大的經常賬戶盈餘，以及核心通脹率上揚，”野村證券(Nomura)外匯策略師比拉爾?哈菲茲(Bilal Hafeez)表示。

Against the dollar the euro jumped as much as 2.2 per cent to a high of 1.0935, before giving back some of those gains.

歐元兌美元匯率上漲2.2%，至1歐元兌1.0935美元的高點，隨後有所回落。