英國首相選擇提前大選的前因與後果

With one bound? Theresa May is making a dash for freedom. The prime minister’s calculation is that a decisive general election victory on June 8 would bestow a personal mandate, the right to set her own agenda, and, this above all, the authority over her own party she needs to negotiate Brexit. A glance at the opinion polls tells you the stars will never be more favourably aligned.

大步跳躍？特里薩?梅(Theresa May)正向着自由衝去。這位英國首相盤算着，在6月8日大選中取得決定性勝利，將賦予她個人民意授權、制定自己議程的權利，最重要的是開展退歐談判所需的黨內權威。掃一眼民意調查就知道，沒有比現在更有利的時刻了。

Received wisdom had it that Mrs May was perfectly comfortable governing in the shadow of her predecessor David Cameron. Had she not said many times that the present parliament would run its full course until 2020? Received wisdom has taken quite a battering lately. If there was a justified element of surprise in her announcement it was because this cautious, deliberative politician has a deserved reputation for risk aversion.

人們曾普遍認爲，梅在前任戴維?卡梅倫(David Cameron)留給她的座位上相當自在。她不是還多次表示，本屆議會將一直運行到2020年期滿爲止嗎？普遍共識在最近遭到了重創。如果說她的提前大選宣佈有合理的意外之處，那就是這位謹慎、思考縝密的政治人物有着值得稱道的厭惡風險的名聲。

Doing nothing was the bigger risk. Mrs May was a Remainer, albeit a reluctant one, during last year’s referendum campaign. She will never be trusted by the anti-European ultras on the Conservative right for whom a hard Brexit is the soft option. With a small parliamentary majority, it was already evident they could take her prisoner during negotiations with the other 27 member states of the EU. She needed to shift the dynamic. The alternative was to hold on to office without power.

問題是什麼都不做的風險更大。在去年的公投前拉票活動中，梅站在留歐陣營（儘管她是這個陣營的不情願成員）。她永遠不會得到保守黨右翼反歐洲極端分子的信任；對這些人來說，硬退歐是柔軟的選擇。鑑於保守黨在議會只有微弱多數席位，已經可以明顯看出，他們會在英國與歐盟其他27個成員國談判時，對她開出各種各樣的條件。她需要改變這種格局。另一個選擇是繼續坐在首相職位，但沒有實權。

The election gives her permission to escape the straitjacket of Mr Cameron’s 2015 manifesto and, always assuming she wins, choose her own cabinet. Mrs May has made no secret of what she thinks of her predecessor. The kerfuffle and subsequent U-turn over proposed tax changes in the March budget were an unwelcome reminder of his legacy. As for the cabinet, word in Whitehall has it that Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, is among those whose future claim to a cabinet seat depends on just how energetically he campaigns for Mrs May.

假設她贏了，大選將讓她逃脫卡梅倫2015年宣言的束縛，她還能選擇自己的內閣。梅並不掩飾自己對其前任的看法。3月份預算中提議的稅改所造成的混亂，以及隨後的大轉變，是卡梅倫政治遺產的一個不受歡迎的提示。至於內閣，白廳內部有傳言說，外交大臣鮑里斯?約翰遜(Boris Johnson)等人未來的內閣席位，將取決於他們多麼賣力地爲梅助選。

Snap elections can go wrong, of course, as Edward Heath discovered in February 1974. In the midst of a battle with the trade unions, the then Tory prime minister went to the country with a question that he always intended to be rhetorical: “Who governs Britain?” The voters replied by choosing Harold Wilson’s Labour opposition.

當然，提前選舉也會失算，正如愛德華?希斯(Edward Heath)在1974年2月所發現的。在與工會的鬥爭中，這位時任保守黨在全國競選時問選民：“誰在統治英國？”他的本意始終是反問，但選民的回答是選擇哈羅德?威爾遜(Harold Wilson)的反對黨工黨(Labour)。

Voters will not thank Mrs May for dragging them to the polls again. Nor will they be impressed by the flimsy pretence that she was forced into the decision by the Brexit manoeuvring of the opposition parties. The politics here is all about the Conservative party. By reneging on a solemn pledge, the prime minister does nothing to raise popular trust in the political class.

選民不會感謝梅將他們再次拖到投票站。他們也不會被她的勉強說辭打動，即她是因爲反對黨在退歐問題上玩弄花招才被迫作出這一決定的。這件事上的政治全都關乎保守黨。由於英國首相違背了一個莊嚴承諾，她沒有幫助提升公衆對政治階層的信任。

This is not, though, 1974. Wilson was a political master. He had served six years as prime minister. Jeremy Corbyn is no Wilson. The far left Labour leader is more comfortable in the company of Latin American revolutionaries than voters in Doncaster or Dorset. Prospective prime ministers need one thing above all else: credibility. Picture Mr Corbyn framed in the doorway of 10 Downing Street. Labour MPs now charging towards the Tory guns do so in the expectation many will be cut down on June 8.

不過，現在的大局有別於1974年。威爾遜是政治大師，他曾擔任6年首相。傑里米?科爾賓(Jeremy Corbyn)不是威爾遜。這位極左翼工黨領袖與拉美革命者（而不是唐卡斯特或多塞特郡的選民）在一起更自在。未來的首相最需要的一個特質是可信度。科爾賓的照片掛在唐寧街10號門道的牆上是不堪設想的。如今，很多工黨議員在與保守黨對手競選時，對於自己將在6月8日投票中慘敗做好了心理準備。

The election will not disrupt the Brexit negotiations, not least because serious bargaining cannot begin until after Germany goes to the polls in the autumn. Nor should the prospect of a hefty Conservative majority revive hopes among pro-Europeans of a soft Brexit. The decisions to leave the single market and the customs union were taken by the prime minister, and Mrs May is not about to abandon her distinctly illiberal view of immigration. That said, a convincing victory would shift some of the parameters.

此次大選不會干擾退歐談判，尤其是因爲只有等德國秋季大選後才能展開認真談判。保守黨在議會擁有明顯多數席位的前景，也不應該重振親歐派對於軟退歐的希望。離開單一市場和關稅聯盟的決定是首相作出的，而梅也不打算放棄她在移民問題上鮮明的小家子氣觀點。話雖如此，一場令人信服的勝利將改變一些參數。

Just as importantly, it would change the texture of the negotiations.

同樣重要的是，它將改變談判的紋理。

Eight months into the job, Mrs May has begun to face up to the complexity of the challenge. She cannot, as she thought until quite recently, expect a bespoke deal with the EU that would offer the best of all worlds.

上任8個月後的今天，梅已經開始面對這一挑戰的複雜性。直到最近她才意識到，她不能期待與歐盟達成兩全其美的定製協議。

Britain will have to make compromises and concessions. Hence Downing Street’s new willingness to countenance a transition period and signals that Britain will accept large numbers of European migrants for many years after Brexit. More such concessions will have to be made, not least in recognising that if it wants to retain a close relationship with some EU agencies Britain will have to afford the European Court of Justice a role in disputes resolution.

英國必須作出妥協和讓步。因此唐寧街最近表示願意考慮一個過渡時期，併發出信號表示，英國將在退歐後的多年裏接收大量歐洲移民。英國必須作出更多這樣的讓步，尤其是承認如果它還想與一些歐盟機構保持密切關係，它就必須給予歐洲法院(European Court of Justice)一個解決爭端的角色。

A substantial win for the Conservatives in June will not end the divisions among Brexiters — not least between those who see the departure from Europe as an opportunity to strike a more nationalist, protectionist pose and free trade globalists who dream of creating what Whitehall officials have cruelly dubbed “Empire 2.0”. A strong personal mandate, though, would give Mrs May a margin of manoeuvre.

保守黨在6月份取得重大勝利不會終結退歐派內部的分歧，尤其在是那些將退歐視作一個擺出更民族主義、保護主義姿態的機會的人，和那些夢想創造被白廳官員們刻薄地稱爲“帝國2.0”(Empire 2.0)、支持自由貿易的全球主義者之間的分歧。然而，獲得強有力的個人民意授權，將讓梅有一定的迴旋餘地。

All this, of course, tells only half the story. There remains the small matter of what the other 27 EU member states are prepared to offer. The Brits are prone to forget that other European states have politics too. So the financial markets should not become over-excited. What can be said is that if the odds last week on a deal being struck during the Brexit talks were no better than 50:50, they have shortened somewhat in favour of an agreement.

當然，這一切都只講了一半故事。還有歐盟其他27國成員準備提供什麼的“小問題”。英國人容易忘記其他歐洲國家也有政治。因此金融市場不應過分興奮。可以說的是，如果退歐談判達成協議的機率在上週不超過50%，現在達成協議的機率高了一些。

A step forward, then, rather than a great bound.

也就是說，這是向前的一步，而不是大步跳躍。