金融市場硬着陸風險並未完全消退

Since mid-February, the financial markets have become much less concerned about a hard landing in global economic activity, or at least about a potential clash between slowing economic activity and inappropriately tight macroeconomic Policy from China and the US Federal Reserve. Financial conditions indicators have eased in the big economies, and this has been accompanied by a partial recovery in business surveys in many parts of the world.

自今年2月中旬以來，金融市場變得不再那麼擔心全球經濟活動硬着陸了，或者至少不再那麼擔心經濟活動放緩與中國和美聯儲(Fed)不合時宜的偏緊宏觀經濟政策之間的潛在衝突了。大型經濟體的金融狀況指標已緩和，全球很多國家的商業景氣調查也隨之在一定程度上回暖。

In the last edition of our monthly report card on Fulcrum’s global nowcasts, we commented that economic activity had turned a corner in the US and China, but this was offset by continued weakness in several key economies, including Japan and the UK. A similar pattern is apparent in this month’s nowcasts. Global recession risks, which seemed elevated in January and February, have now receded, but the world economy is far from robust.

在上一期的支點資產管理公司(Fulcrum)全球“即時預測”(nowcast)月度報告中，我們評述道，美國和中國的經濟活動已走出陰霾，但日本和英國等幾個關鍵經濟體的持續疲弱抵消了這一影響。近期的nowcast顯示出類似的格局。今年1月和2月似乎較高的全球衰退風險現已消退，但世界經濟遠非強勁。

We therefore leave the overall verdict unchanged from last month: global activity growth is somewhat better, especially in the emerging economies, but it is still a long way from being satisfactory. (Full details of the latest nowcasts are shown here.)

因此，我們的總體結論與上月未變：全球經濟活動增速有所好轉，特別是新興經濟體，但遠遠不能令人滿意。（點擊此處查看最新nowcast的完整內容。）

Global activity only slightly below trend growth…

全球經濟活動略低於趨勢增速……

Global activity has been growing below its long-run trend rate (3.6 per cent) since the start of 2014. At times (eg in February 2015, August 2015 and February 2016) the growth rate has fallen well below 2.5 per cent, and there have been elevated fears that a global hard landing might occur. Several factors have explained this dismal pattern – the chronic slowdown in productivity growth in advanced economies; the impact of China’s structural problems and the crash in commodity prices on emerging economies; and the drag from a rising dollar and a tightening Federal Reserve on US activity.

自2014年初以來，全球經濟活動增速一直低於3.6%的長期趨勢。有時（如2015年2月、2015年8月和2016年2月）增速甚至遠低於2.5%，人們曾非常擔心會發生一場全球硬着陸。幾個因素解釋了這種慘淡的局面：發達經濟體生產率增速長期放緩；中國結構性問題的影響和大宗商品價格暴跌對新興經濟體的影響；以及美元升值和美聯儲政策收緊對美國經濟活動的拖累。

On each occasion, however, the outcome has confounded the pessimists, and recession risks have quickly faded. Policy changes by the Fed have eased monetary conditions at critical times and China has repeatedly eased fiscal policy to inject temporary boosts to the sagging economy. This is exactly what has happened during the latest slowdown in January/February 2016, and the global economy has once again stepped back from the brink of outright recession.

然而，結果每次都令悲觀主義者感到困惑，衰退風險迅速消退。美聯儲做出的政策變動屢次在關鍵時刻緩解了貨幣狀況，同時中國多次放鬆財政政策，向低迷的經濟注入暫時的刺激。這正是2016年1月和2月經濟放緩期間發生的事情，全球經濟再次退離全面衰退的邊緣。

The latest nowcast shows a rebound in global activity growth to 3.4 per cent, which is just below trend. Growth in the advanced economies has rebounded from a low point of 1 per cent in February to 1.4 per cent now (ie still about 0.3 per cent below trend). Growth in the emerging economies has jumped from 3 per cent in February to 5.5 per cent now, which is at trend for the first time in three years. However, the rebound in the emerging economies is driven by improvements in China and Brazil, both of which are subject to large risks of renewed setbacks in coming months.

最新的nowcast顯示，全球經濟活動增速回升至3.4%，略低於趨勢水平。發達經濟體的增速從2月1%的低點反彈至現在的1.4%（仍較趨勢水平低出0.3%左右）。新興經濟體的增速從2月的3%躍升至目前的5.5%，這是3年來首次達到趨勢水平。然而，新興經濟體反彈受到中國和巴西經濟改善的推動，而未來幾個月這兩個國家都將面臨再度受挫的較大風險。

The US may be emerging from its prolonged slowdown…

美國可能正從漫長放緩中復甦……

The US nowcasts started to identify a marked slowdown about a year ago, at a time when consensus forecasts generally showed the economy accelerating in 2015 as the impact of lower oil prices boosted consumer demand. Unfortunately, the subdued nowcasts were correct on that occasion. The cutback in investment in domestic oil production and an unexpectedly large rise in the dollar damaged the US manufacturing sector, and this more than offset the benefits from buoyant labour markets during 2015.

美國的nowcast在大約一年前開始顯示明顯放緩，當時的共識預測普遍顯示美國經濟在2015年加速增長，因油價下跌的影響提振了消費者需求。不幸的是，低迷的nowcast被證明說對了。國內石油生產投資的削減，以及美元意外大幅升值損害了美國製造業，完全抵消了2015年期間勞動力市場活躍所帶來的好處。

This year, with the nowcast dropping to only about 1 per cent, the Fed realised that it would have to reduce its 2016 gross domestic product growth forecast very sharply unless monetary conditions were eased markedly. When interest rate increases were postponed, growth quickly started to recover. With confidence returning, the Fed now seems to be considering a June rate rise (as Tim Duy points out).

今年，隨着nowcast降至1%左右，美聯儲意識到，除非貨幣狀況明顯放鬆，否則它將不得不大幅下調其對2016年國內生產總值(GDP)增長的預測。在加息舉措推遲後，經濟增長迅速開始回升。隨着信心迴歸，美聯儲現在似乎在考慮6月加息（就像蒂姆•杜伊(Tim Duy)所指出的那樣）。

The debate about the present state of US activity is reflected in the continuing differences between the Fulcrum nowcast, the GDPNow model produced by the Atlanta Fed, and theNew York Fed nowcast. As explained in this blog, we prefer to focus on the daily Fulcrum nowcasts, which suggest that the US growth rate dipped sharply up to the end of February, but has now recovered to about 1.9 per cent.

圍繞美國經濟活動當前狀況的辯論，體現在支點nowcast模型、亞特蘭大聯儲(Atlanta Fed)製作的GDPNow模型以及紐約聯儲(New York Fed)的nowcast模型繼續存在的分歧上。正如我們在這個博客專欄中解釋的那樣，我們更願意關注支點的每日nowcast模型，它表明，在2月底之前，美國增速大幅下滑，但現在已回升至1.9%左右。

US nowcasts have been somewhat volatile lately, so the recent rebound should not be treated as wholly reliable, but it seems clear that the economy has now rebounded from the subdued 0.5 per cent growth rate shown in the official GDP statistics in 2016 Q1. As usual, the GDP data are very backward looking, and are largely ignored by the forward-looking financial markets.

美國的nowcast模型最近有些波動，因此最近的反彈不應被視爲完全可靠，但它似乎表明，美國經濟已從2016年第一季度官方GDP數據0.5%的低迷增速反彈。如往常一樣，GDP數據非常滯後，基本上被前瞻性的金融市場忽略。

Japan and the UK are causing headaches….

日本和英國令人頭疼……

Among the medium sized advanced economies, there has been a further slowdown in activity growth in both Japan and the UK in recent weeks. Although these economies have idiosyncratic problems at the moment, the weak data emerging from both of them raises some concerns about the breadth and durability of the bounce in activity in the advanced economies.

在中等規模的發達經濟體當中，最近幾週日本和英國的經濟活動增速進一步放緩。儘管這些經濟體目前存在特殊的問題，但來自兩國的疲弱數據令一些人對發達經濟體經濟活動反彈的廣度和後勁感到擔憂。

Growth in Japan fell back into negative territory in March, and the latest data suggest that it has fallen further to -0.7 per cent in April. The failure of the Bank of Japan to ease monetary policy in April is therefore surprising, though this may only be a temporary postponement.

3月，日本經濟增速重新回到負值，最新數據似乎表明，4月的經濟增速進一步下滑至-0.7%。因此日本央行(Bank of Japan) 4月未能放鬆貨幣政策令人意外，儘管這或許只是暫時推遲。

In the UK, activity growth has fallen markedly from 2.5 per cent in February to only 1 per cent now. It is hard to say whether this slowdown is due to the uncertainty caused by the EU referendum, but that is clearly one possible explanation. In any event, UK growth has fallen persistently since the start of 2014, and there is no sign yet of any improvement.

在英國，經濟活動增速從2月的2.5%大幅下滑至現在的區區1%。很難說這種放緩是否源於退出歐盟公投導致的不確定性，但這顯然是一個可能的解釋。無論如何，英國增速自2014年初以來一路下滑，至今沒有起色。

Little recent change in activity data from the eurozone and China…

歐元區和中國最近的經濟活動數據幾乎沒有變動……

Growth in activity in the eurozone has been disappointing this year, probably because the economy is reacting with a lag to earlier weakness in China and the US. But the sharp drop in Germany and other eurozone economies identified by the nowcasts in February seems to have been a false alarm. Underlying fundamentals forgrowth this year do not look too bad, with fiscal policy broadly neutral, monetary policy gaining some traction and consumer spending looking healthy. Eurozone growth is running at 1.4 per cent, and it will probably slightly exceed trend this year, provided that foreign demand remains firm.

今年，歐元區經濟活動增速迄今令人失望，很可能是因爲歐元區經濟對中國和美國之前的疲弱表現反應滯後。但2月的nowcast顯示的德國和其他歐元區經濟體大幅下滑似乎是虛驚一場。今年的經濟基本面看上去不是太糟，財政政策基本中性，貨幣政策的影響正在形成勢頭，同時消費者支出看上去健康。歐元區經濟增速目前爲1.4%，如果海外需求保持強勁，今年可能會略高於趨勢水平。

In China, the recovery in the mini-cycle is alive and well, despite a slightly weaker PMI in April. A sharp easing in fiscal and monetary policy has resulted in an early rebound in activity, as it has done many times in the past. Activity growth is now well above the official target at 7.5 per cent, but this is based on a renewed rise in leverage in the public and private sectors, and a further delay in the rebalancing of the economy away from reliance on excessive investment spending.

在中國，迷你週期的復甦仍然存在而且運轉良好，儘管4月的採購經理人指數(PMI)略有下滑。財政和貨幣政策的大舉放鬆導致經濟活動較早反彈，就像過去多次出現的那樣。經濟活動增速現在遠遠高於7.5%的官方目標，但這是基於公共和私人部門槓桿率的再度上升，以及經濟轉型（擺脫對過度投資支出的依賴）的進一步推遲。

The markets have been reassured in the short term that the authorities are willing and able to prevent a hard landing, but at what longer term cost? China’s emergence from a severe bout of excessive leverage will undoubtedly be an extremely long story, with many twists and turns before it is over.

市場在短期內感到放心：各國政府願意也有能力阻止經濟硬着陸，但這麼做的較長期代價是什麼？中國擺脫一輪嚴重的過度槓桿熱潮肯定將有一個極其漫長的過程，其間會出現很多曲折複雜的局面。