中國真正的信用風險在影子金融

The downgrading of the world’s second-largest economy’s sovereign debt rating should rank as an important event. But financial markets greeted China’s downgrade last week by Moody’s, the credit rating agency, with their version of a nonchalant shrug. Chinese domestic bond prices remained steady and Hong Kong’s main stock index actually rose during the week.

世界第二大經濟體主權債務評級被調降應該算作一起重大事件，但上週評級機構穆迪(Moody's)調降中國信用評級後，金融市場卻若無其事。中國國內債券價格保持穩定，香港主要股指上週竟然還上漲了。

But the non-event should not lull observers into complacency. China not only has one of the most highly leveraged corporate sectors in the world — with company debts equivalent to about 170 per cent of gross domestic product — it is also engaged in risky manoeuvres to cut an overgrown shadow finance sector down to size.

但是，這起未引發巨大反響的事件不應讓觀察人士產生自滿情緒。中國不僅有世界槓桿最高的企業部門之一——企業債務相當於國內生產總值(GDP)的約170%——它還在進行一項冒險行動，試圖將過於臃腫的影子金融部門限制在一定規模內。

Indeed, the market’s shrug says more about the structure of China’s financial architecture than it does about the very considerable risks that lurk within it. The truth is that foreign rating agencies have little influence over domestic bond investors and foreign ownership of Chinese bonds amounts to just $61.5bn, or 4 per cent of the total.

市場的無動於衷更多反映的是中國金融體系的結構，而非隱藏其中的巨大的風險。事實上，外國評級機構對中國國內債券投資者的影響微乎其微，而外國投資者持有的中國債券合計僅615億美元，佔總數的4%。

In any case, China’s outstanding foreign debt stood at a modest $1.42tn — or just 13 per cent of GDP — at the end of 2016. Beijing’s huge stash of foreign exchange reserves, which currently stands at $3tn, makes it highly unlikely that the country would default on its sovereign bonds.

總之，截至2016年底，中國的外債餘額爲1.42萬億美元，僅相當於GDP的13%。中國擁有的鉅額外匯儲備——目前爲3萬億美元——這使得中國出現主權債券違約的可能性微乎其微。

Nevertheless, the one-notch relegation of Moody’s rating to A1 should encourage observers to delve into the strange nature of Chinese financial risk. Although the downgrade puts China on a par with Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Czech Republic, there is almost no equivalence between the challenges it faces and those of these countries.

儘管如此，穆迪將中國的信用評級下調一級至A1還是應該會鼓勵觀察人士深入研究中國金融風險的奇特性質。雖然此次調降使中國與以色列、沙特阿拉伯及捷克處於同一信用級別，但中國面臨的挑戰與這些國家面臨的挑戰幾乎完全不一樣。

The risks inherent in China’s system derive mainly from the regulatory disobedience of a state-owned phalanx of banks and companies that have reaped handsome returns from a booming netherworld of shadow finance. This twilight domain has tripled in size over the past five years to be worth $9.4tn, or about 87 per cent of GDP, at the end of last year, according to Moody’s estimates.

中國金融系統內在的風險主要來自於大批國有銀行和國有企業違反監管規定的行爲，它們從蓬勃發展的影子金融領域中獲得了可觀收益。據穆迪估算，過去5年，影子金融的規模擴大了兩倍，截至去年底已達9.4萬億美元，相當於GDP的約87%。

In recent months, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) and other official bodies have sought to re-impose Beijing’s authority by cracking down on a long list of irregular but commonplace financial dealings. Guo Shuqing, the CBRC chairman, has been quoted as saying he would rather resign than see the banking system become a “complete mess”.

近幾個月來，中國銀監會等官方機構再次端出北京的權威，打擊了一長串不合規但常見的金融交易。有報道引用銀監會主席郭樹清的話稱，如果銀行業搞得“一塌糊塗”，他寧願辭職。

But the crackdown is creating collateral damage. A squeeze on the money market, a font of shadow finance liquidity, has driven short-term interest rates higher, raising the costs of funding not only for irregular dealings but also for legitimate mid-sized banks and companies that rely on such funding to manage stretched balance sheets.

但打擊造成了間接損害。對貨幣市場——影子金融流動性的來源——的擠壓已推動短期利率上揚，不僅提高了不合規交易的融資成本，合法的中型銀行、以及依靠貨幣市場融資來管理繃得過緊的資產負債表的企業的融資成本也增加了。

Bond market defaults are relatively new; the first one was permitted in 2014. But this year there have been 13 defaults so far, the most recent in late May when Dalian Machine Tool Group — one of the world’s largest machine-tool companies — failed to repay the principle and interest on debt issued.

在中國，債券市場違約是相對較新的現象，2014年才允許出現第一起違約。但今年以來已發生13例違約，最近一例是5月底大連機牀集團(Dalian Machine Tool Group)無力償還所發行債券的本金和利息，該集團是全球最大機牀企業之一。

The potential for debt default contagion is huge, due to a widespread practise of companies guaranteeing other companies’ loans. Nearly half of the lower-rated companies in China have extended loan guarantees of more than 30 per cent of the value of their equity, according to Everbright Securities, a Chinese brokerage. Thus while the Moody’s downgrade may not signal a clear and present danger, it should alert investors to the myriad credit risks within China’s opaque economy.

由於企業間擔保貸款的做法較爲普遍，債務違約蔓延的可能性非常大。根據中國券商光大證券(Everbright Securities)的數據，中國近一半評級較低企業的貸款擔保額超過自身股本價值的30%。因此，雖然穆迪調降中國評級可能並不意味着一場明顯且迫在眉睫的危險，但它還是應當促使投資者注意中國不透明的經濟中蘊含的種種信用風險。