中國金融外交面對高風險賭局(中)

Exposure to Caracas

在委內瑞拉面臨的風險

When China began funding Chávez’s government in 2007, it was effectively betting that a country with a junk sovereign credit rating that had defaulted on or rescheduled its debts with overseas creditors four times over the preceding 30 years was somehow ready to embrace financial prudence.

中國2007年開始資助查韋斯政府時，實際上賭的是一個主權信用評級爲垃圾級、過去30年曾經對海外債權人違約或進行債務重組多達四次的國家應該已經準備好擁抱穩健的財政政策。

Beijing was so convinced of this that it made oil-rich Venezuela its biggest client for development loans by far, doling out $65bn since 2007 in 17 tranches to fund refineries, gold mines, logistics, trade, the railway and a large number of unspecified items, according to the China-Latin America Finance Database, compiled by Mr Gallagher and Margaret Myers.

北京方面如此深信這一點，以至於使盛產石油的委內瑞拉成爲中國發展貸款的最大客戶。加拉格爾與馬格里特•邁爾斯(Margaret Myers)彙編的中國-拉美金融數據庫(China-Latin America Finance Database)顯示，自2007年以來，中國爲委內瑞拉在煉油廠、金礦、物流、貿易、鐵路以及大量隱祕項目上提供了17個批次共計650億美元貸款。

For context, $65bn is more than the World Bank has lent to any country — with the single exception of India — since 1945, data from the bank show.

世行的數據顯示，除印度以外，該行自1945年以來提供給任何一個國家的貸款都未超過650億美元。

In May, Caracas engineered a negotiated default on its Chinese debts.

今年5月，加拉加斯方面經過協商後得以延期向中國償還貸款。

With annual inflation running at as much as 800 per cent in Venezuela, food shortages and government contractors going unpaid, Beijing agreed to let the government of Nicolás Maduro postpone payments of the principal on its outstanding loans, officials in Caracas have said.

加拉加斯的官員表示，鑑於委內瑞拉年通脹率高達800%、食品短缺，以及政府的承包商也拿不到錢，北京方面已同意尼古拉斯•馬杜羅(Nicolás Maduro)的政府延期支付其未償貸款的本金。

Having to pay only the interest on an estimated $20bn-$24bn in outstanding loans is set to deliver annual savings of about $5bn for two years, according to Francisco Rodríguez, chief economist at Torino Capital in New York.

都靈資本(Torino Capital)駐紐約首席經濟學家弗朗西斯科•羅德里格斯(Francisco Rodríguez)表示，只需爲估計在200億至240億美元之間的未償貸款支付利息將在未來兩年裏每年爲委內瑞拉節省約50億美元。

However, worse may yet to come for China.

然而對中國而言，更糟糕的可能還在後面。

Concern is growing that Caracas may default on its international bonds, a development that would trigger the seizure of national assets held offshore by the country’s creditors.

令人越來越擔心的是，加拉加斯的國際債券可能出現違約，那將導致債權人扣押委內瑞拉在海外的國有資產。

This could mean that overseas oil refineries owned by PDVSA, the national oil company, are confiscated and exports of crude — the government’s lifeline — would be disrupted, potentially threatening the oil supplies that Caracas uses to repay China.

這意味着，委內瑞拉國家石油公司(PDVSA)旗下的海外煉油廠可能被扣押，作爲政府生命線的原油出口將受到衝擊，從而影響到加拉加斯向中國供應石油償債。

All this is a far cry from China’s optimism of only four years ago.

所有這一切與四年前中國的樂觀想法形成鮮明反差。

Liu Kegu, vice-governor of China Development Bank, Venezuela’s biggest creditor, explained then that because the bank’s loans were secured against Caracas’s huge reserves of oil, the credit line was insulated against default.

當時，中國國家開發銀行(China Development Bank)——委內瑞拉最大債權人——副行長劉克崮解釋稱，因爲該行的貸款有委內瑞拉巨大的石油儲量作擔保，不可能出現債務違約。

Oil is very simple to drill.

亨利•桑德森(Henry Sanderson)、邁克爾•福賽思(Michael Forsythe)合著的《中國的超級銀行》(China’s Superbank)一書援引了劉克崮2012年接受採訪時說的話：開採石油非常簡單。

You drill a hole, put in a pipe and it comes out! And then you ship it.

在地上鑽一個洞，插入管道，就出來了！然後就可以裝船運走。

So Venezuela’s debt service ability is very strong, Mr Liu was quoted as saying in a 2012 interview for China’s Superbank, a book by Henry Sanderson and Michael Forsythe.

所以，委內瑞拉的償債能力非常強。

China’s exposure to Venezuela runs much deeper than the $65bn in state-to-state lending.

中國在委內瑞拉投入的遠不止650億美元政府間貸款。

A phalanx of Chinese companies followed the lending splurge, eyeing the likely developmental dividends.

一大批中國企業也跟隨這種信貸狂熱來到委內瑞拉，期待獲得發展紅利。

In a population that the UN estimates at 31m, the largesse equated to about $2,100 per person.

據聯合國估計，委內瑞拉的人口爲3100萬，中國的貸款相當於給每人發放約2100美元。

CITIC Group signed to build railroads and housing, Sinohydro Group signed to build power stations, phone networks were supplied by ZTE and oil refineries and pipelines were erected by Sinopec and PetroChina — not to mention China Railway Group, the contractor for the mothballed Tinaco-Anaco line.

中信集團(CITIC Group)簽約修建鐵路和住房，中國水電(Sinohydro Group)簽約修建發電站，中興通訊(ZTE)提供電話網，中石化(Sinopec)和中石油(PetroChina)建設煉油廠和管道——更不必提承建迪納科-阿納科高鐵的中國中鐵(China Railway Group)。

Outwardly, Beijing shows little sign of concern, eschewing any temptation to criticise Mr Maduro in public.

分析人士稱，在臺面上，北京方面很少表現出擔憂的跡象，也避免公開批評馬杜羅。

But in private discussions with Venezuelan officials, the tone is blunter, analysts say.

但在與委內瑞拉官員私下交流時，中方更加直言不諱。

Chinese officials have also informally made contact with the Venezuelan opposition coalition.

中國官員還與委內瑞拉反對派聯盟進行了非正式接觸。

Even by 2011 or 2012, the Chinese were starting to get nervous, says Evan Ellis, professor of Latin American studies at the US Army War College. Money was being siphoned off from various projects and China Development Bank was sending in multiple teams and making lots of recommendations that didn’t make any difference.

早在2011或者2012年，中方就開始感到不安了，美國陸軍戰爭學院(US Army War College)從事拉丁美洲研究的埃文•埃利斯教授(Evan Ellis)說，許多工程的資金都被抽走，國開行派出了多個工作組，給出了很多建議，但都沒有什麼效果。

Mr Ellis says that unless things change for the better in Caracas, China is no longer willing to put good money after bad, unless it is the only way for it to avoid losing its entire position through the collapse of the regime.

埃利斯表示，除非加拉加斯的局勢有所好轉，中國不會願意繼續浪費錢了，除非這是其避免在委內瑞拉政權崩潰中弄得血本無歸的唯一方法。