IMF警告中國債務及全球金融風險

WASHINGTON — As global leaders sounded the alarm about a slowing world economy, a more immediate concern drew the attention of policy makers at the International Monetary Fund’s semiannual meetings last week: inflated asset prices and increasing levels of debt overseas.

華盛頓——隨着各國領導人發出世界經濟正在放緩的警告，在上週的國際貨幣基金組織（International Monetary Fund，簡稱IMF）秋季年會上，有一個更爲緊迫的擔憂點吸引了決策者們的注意力：日益膨脹的資產價格，以及不斷攀升的海外負債水平。

Bond markets in the eurozone are booming, debt in China is at historic highs and the United States stock market, even with its sharp fall last week, has been on a tear.

歐元區債券市場一片活躍，中國的負債水平創下歷史新高，而美國的股市儘管上週遭受重創，總體而言仍處於大牛市中。

As economists and politicians heap pressure on global central banks to continue, and even escalate, their unusually loose monetary policies in order to spur global demand, the fear that these measures could provoke another market convulsion is spreading.

經濟學家和政界人士對世界範圍內的央行大力施壓，希望它們繼續乃至升級當前極爲寬鬆的貨幣政策，以便刺激全球需求。然而，與此同時，這些措施或將引發又一輪市場動盪的擔憂正在蔓延。

“A major lesson of the last crisis is that accommodative monetary policy contributed to financial excesses,” said Lucas Papademos, a former vice president of the European Central Bank. “We are pursuing a similar policy for good reason. But there are limits — if you do this for too long, risks in the financial markets will materialize.”

“上次危機的一大教訓就是，寬鬆的貨幣政策會助長金融過剩，”曾擔任歐洲央行（European Central Bank，簡稱ECB）副行長的盧卡斯·帕帕季莫斯(Lucas Papademos)說。“我們目前有很好的理由來追求類似的政策。但凡事有極限——假如持續時間太長，金融市場的風險就會冒出來。”

Over the last week this debate has been playing out here: on panels at think tanks, in huddles inside and outside the hulking I.M.F. building and in formal talks between government officials and central bankers.

上週的時候，有關這一問題的辯論在華盛頓展開：不僅出現在智庫的討論會上、在恢弘的IMF大樓內外舉辦的會議裏，還出現在各國政府官員與央行高層的正式對話中。

Mario Draghi, the president of the E.C.B., echoed these concerns on Saturday when he said that beyond concerns about the global economy, one of the main topics of discussion was “increasing financial risk-taking” by investors, especially nonbank institutions.

週六，ECB行長馬里奧·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)附和了這種擔憂。他表示，除了全球經濟，討論的一大主題是投資者“承擔的金融風險日趨擴大”，尤其是非銀行機構。

To a degree, the fund’s warning that the eurozone’s economy, and Germany’s in particular, might face a recession turned what had been an academic discussion into a major political issue.

在某種程度上，IMF對歐元區經濟——尤其是德國經濟——或許會陷入衰退的警告，將之前的學術討論變成了一大政治議題。

The outcry for Germany, which has surpassed China as the country with the largest trade surplus in the world, to spend more on infrastructure to revitalize its flagging economy was loud enough. But behind closed doors there was an even harder push for more immediate action: a purchase by the European Central Bank of Italian, Spanish and Greek government bonds, in large quantities.

德國已超越中國成爲全球第一大貿易順差國。呼籲德國加大基礎設施投資以重振其放緩的經濟的聲音頗爲響亮。不過，在緊閉的大門背後，有更大的推動力要求儘快行動：歐洲央行應買入意大利、西班牙和希臘的國債，而且是大量買入。

While the bank has presented a plan to purchase securitized corporate bonds, many now think that not enough of these securities exist for the plan to make a difference.

儘管ECB提交了一份計劃，準備購買證券化的企業債券，但許多人現在認爲，此類證券當前的規模不足以讓這一計劃起到作用。

Germany, led by its hawkish central bank head, Jens Weidmann, has resisted all moves by the E.C.B. to buy government bonds in bulk.

在鷹派央行行長延斯·魏德曼(Jens Weidmann)的帶領下，德國一直對ECB大量買入成員國國債的任何舉措予以抵制。

One senior E.C.B. official, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said that within the body’s governing council, Germany is facing increased pressure to relax its opposition to such measures, especially as worries about growth and deflation increase.

一名無權公開置評的ECB高級官員稱，在該行的管理委員會上，德國面臨着放鬆其反對立場的越來越大的壓力，尤其是在有關經濟增長與通貨膨脹的擔憂正在加深的情況下。

“I think you will see this happen in less than a year,” the person said.

“我想這件事一年內會實現，”此人表示。

Such a step, of course, would create even more of a global buying frenzy for eurozone government bonds, and earlier in the week Christine Lagarde, the chief of the I.M.F., warned that the strong performance of these instruments was not supported by the underlying economies in their countries.

當然，這樣的舉措將導致全球買家更爲瘋狂地購入歐元區國家的國債。而且，本週早些時候，IMF總裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)警告，此類工具的強勁表現沒有得到這些國家經濟面的支持。

In effect, bond market investors are slamming down on the gas pedal while banks, burdened by persistent regulatory demands, still have their foot on the brake.

實際上，儘管債市投資者在猛踩油門，但受困於嚴苛監管要求的銀行，仍然在踩剎車。

“How am I supposed to lend any money if I have to go through a stress test every six months?” said the chairman of a large European bank who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he did not want to offend his new regulator, the E.C.B.

“每六個月就得來一次壓力測試，我怎麼可能去放貸？”歐洲一家大型銀行的董事長說。由於不希望惹惱自己的新監管機構ECB，他要求不具名。

Last week, the I.M.F. said that in Europe, 70 percent of the large banks it monitored were not in a position to support an economic recovery via increased lending.

上週，IMF表示，該機構監測的歐洲大型銀行中，70%無法通過放貸來支撐經濟復甦。

“What we see is extraordinary risk-taking in the financial markets while in the real economy risk-taking has taken a holiday,” said Claudio Borio, a senior economist at the Bank for International Settlements, a clearinghouse for global central banks.

“我們看到的是，金融市場中的很多業務承載着巨大風險，而實體經濟在承擔風險的事情上打着瞌睡，”國際清算銀行(Bank for International Settlements)的高級經濟師克勞迪奧·博里奧(Claudio Borio)說。這家銀行是全球央行的結算行。

Mr. Draghi, at his news conference, said he did not see signs of a government-bond bubble in the eurozone, although he did note that the matter demanded close attention.

德拉吉在新聞發佈會上表示，他並未看到歐元區存在國債泡沫的跡象，不過他明確指出，需要密切關注這一問題。

In particular, bankers and debt experts pointed to the tremendous buildup in corporate and private-sector debt in emerging markets that has resulted from the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program.

尤其是，銀行業高層和債務專家指出，由於美聯儲(Federal Reserve)的債券購買計劃，新興市場上累積了鉅額的企業與私營部門債務。

“Overall debt has continued to grow quite dramatically — China’s has grown by $15 trillion in the past six years,” said Susan Lund, an analyst at McKinsey, the consulting firm. “That is a very large number.”

“整體債務規模持續飆升——在過去六年裏，中國的債務增加了15萬億美元（約合92萬億元人民幣），”諮詢公司麥肯錫(McKinsey)的分析師蘇珊·倫德(Susan Lund)說。“這是個很大的數字。”

In the financial stability report it released last week, the I.M.F. pointed out that asset management firms have increased their purchases of bonds from emerging markets to close to $2 trillion today from $265 billion in early 2000.

在上週發佈的《全球金融穩定報告》中，IMF指出，資產管理公司增加了從新興市場上買入債券的規模，由2000年初的2650億美元增至目前的近2萬億美元。

The pace of this buildup has increased over the last few years, and regulators worry that when interest rates in the United States rise, investors — especially on the retail side — will pull their money out.

過去幾年間，這種累積的步伐不斷加快，而監管部門擔心，當美國加息的時候，投資者將紛紛抽離資金，尤其是散戶投資者。

At that point, experts believe, the funds would have a hard time selling those securities, which tend to not attract large numbers of buyers and sellers.

專家認爲，到了那個時候，各大基金將難以將這些證券脫手，因爲它們不大能吸引大量的買家和賣家。

“We do worry that if a lot of this money heads for the exit at the same time you could see a major fire sale,” said Jon Cunliffe, deputy governor for financial stability at the Bank of England.

“我們的確擔心，如果其中的大筆資金要同時退出，就會出現減價大甩賣，”英格蘭銀行(Bank of England)負責金融穩定的副行長喬恩·坎利夫(Jon Cunliffe)說。

For some observers, though, the debate about asset bubbles and what central banks should do about them misses a crucial point. An increase in interest rates by the Fed, assuming it happened because the American economy was in full recovery mode, would be a positive sign, they say — not just for the United States but also for global financial markets in general.

不過，在一些觀察人士看來，關於資產泡沫及各國央行應如何加以應對的討論，其實是不得要領。他們宣稱，美聯儲加息的話——由於美國經濟正在全面復甦，可以這樣設想——將是一個積極的信號，不僅對美國如此，對全球金融市場總體而言也如此。

“Interest rates are going to go up in 2015 — why are the markets getting all whipsawed?” said James P. Gorman, chief executive of Morgan Stanley, speaking at a luncheon conference on Friday. “Rates are going up because the U.S. economy is doing better — and that is a good thing.”

“2015年將會加息——爲什麼市場要劇烈波動？”摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席執行官詹姆斯·P·戈爾曼(James P. Gorman)在週五的午餐會上反問。“之所以會加息，是因爲美國經濟正在好轉——這是件好事。”