中國金融外交面對高風險賭局(上)

When China signed up to build Venezuela’s Tinaco-Anaco Railway in 2009, the scheme was hailed as proof of the effectiveness of socialist brotherhood.

中國2009年簽署爲委內瑞拉修建迪納科-阿納科高鐵(Tinaco-Anaco Railway)的協議時，該計劃被稱頌爲印證了社會主義兄弟情誼的有效性。

Gleaming new Chinese trains were envisaged, whisking passengers and cargo along at 137mph on about 300 miles of track.

按照設想，在約300英里長的軌道上，一趟趟嶄新的中國造列車將滿載旅客和貨物以137英里/每小時的速度穿行。

Hugo Chávez, the late Venezuelan president, called the $800m project socialism on rails and said the air-conditioned carriages would be available to everyone, rich or poor.

委內瑞拉已故總統烏戈•查韋斯(Hugo Chávez)當時將這個8億美元的工程稱爲鐵軌上的社會主義，並表示，所有委內瑞拉人，不論貧富，都將可以乘坐這些空調列車。

But the endeavour has become what locals call a red elephant, the vandalised and abandoned symbol of Venezuela’s deepening economic crisis.

但該項目已變成當地人口中的紅色大象——在委內瑞拉不斷加重的經濟危機中被破壞、被放棄的象徵物。

A slogan written in Chinese characters on an archway into a deserted construction site has taken on an ironic tone. Dare to leap ahead, it says.

一處廢棄建築工地的拱門上用中文寫着勇於跨越，如今讀起來頗具諷刺意味。

For China, the project represents more than just an isolated example of a dream turned to dust.

對中國而言，這一工程的意義不只是一個夢想破碎的孤立個案。

Over the past decade, the country has transformed itself from a marginal presence to the dominant player in international development finance with a loan portfolio larger than all six western-backed multilateral organisations put together.

過去10年，中國在國際發展融資領域已從一個邊緣角色轉變爲主導者，其放貸規模超過了六家西方支持的多邊機構的總和。

Outstanding loans from the two big Chinese policy banks and 13 regional funds are well in excess of the $700bn owed to the western-backed institutions, according to a recent study.

最近一項研究顯示，中國兩大政策性銀行和13只地區性基金的貸款餘額已大大超過西方支持的機構貸出的7000億美元。

But in the process of leaping ahead, China’s state development banks and funds have taken on a welter of risk in some of the most unstable countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia.

但在這種躍進過程中，中國政策性開發銀行和基金在拉美、非洲及亞洲一些最不穩定的國家承擔着巨大風險。

As projects turn sour, the largesse and unorthodox lending protocols that have characterised China’s global financial diplomacy are undergoing a thorough re-evaluation, Chinese officials say.

中國官員表示，隨着一些工程不斷出問題，慷慨、非正統的放貸模式——這是中國金融外交的特徵——正受到全面重估。

When commodity prices were high, the Chinese policy banks saw all these loans as great investments to help Chinese firms go global, to diversify their foreign exchange reserves and make new friends, says Kevin Gallagher, professor of global development policy at Boston University’s Pardee School for Global Studies.

大宗商品價格高企時，中國的政策性銀行將這些貸款視爲幫助中國企業走出去、實現外匯儲備多元化並結交新朋友的重要投資，波士頓大學帕迪全球問題研究院(Boston University’s Pardee School of Global Studies)全球發展政策教授凱文•加拉格爾(Kevin Gallagher)說，如今，大量貸款看起來都充滿風險，他們正在迅速地開展更全面的盡職調查。

Now a lot of it just looks a lot like risk and they are rapidly working to do better due diligence.A Chinese official with the influential National Development and Reform Commission, the government ministry responsible for economic planning, says frustration is mounting in Beijing over poor returns from unsatisfactory projects and a sense that state lenders have in the past taken on too much risk in unstable countries.

中國國家發改委(NDRC)一名官員表示，由於有些項目效益不佳，加上意識到了國有銀行在不穩定的國家承擔了太多風險，北京方面正感到越來越受挫。發改委是中國負責經濟規劃的實權機構。

China had no choice but to lend a lot to risky countries because they had the commodities we needed and because the western multilateral organisations already dominated the rest of the world, the official says.

中國那時別無選擇，只能大量貸款給高風險國家，一個原因是他們擁有我們需要的大宗商品，還有一個原因是西方的多邊機構早已主導了世界其他地區的發展融資，上述官員表示，

These days we need viable projects and a good return.

現如今，我們需要切實可行的項目和良好的回報。

We don’t want to back losers.

我們不想支持失敗者。