美聯儲要員警告美國長期滯漲風險
There is an increasing risk that the US economy has become trapped in a prolonged period of subdued growth that requires lower official rates than was previously expected, a leading Federal Reserve policymaker has warned.
美聯儲(Fed)一位主要政策制定者警告稱，美國經濟陷入長期低增長的風險日益增加，這要求官方利率比之前預計的更低一些。
Jerome Powell, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, said he was not in a hurry to lift rates, arguing for a “very gradual” path for any rises, while warning that the US outlook was still dogged by global risks.
美聯儲理事傑羅姆•鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)表示，他不會倉促加息，任何加息都應“極爲小心地循序漸進”，同時警告稱，美國前景仍受到全球風險的影響。
“With inflation below target, I think we can be patient,” he told the Financial Times.
他向英國《金融時報》表示：“由於通脹低於目標水平，我認爲我們可以耐心一些。”
In his four years at the Federal Reserve, Mr Powell has demarcated himself for his willingness to get stuck into the nitty-gritty of financial markets, earning himself a reputation as the Fed’s markets governor.
鮑威爾在美聯儲的4年裏以願意致力於金融市場本質問題而與衆不同，這爲他贏得了美聯儲市場理事的名聲。
But meeting the FT in a wood-panelled room at the Fed’s headquarters on Constitution Avenue, he appeared as much preoccupied by the longer-term US growth outlook as by the potential for market logjams and mishaps.
但在位於憲法大道的美聯儲總部的一間實木裝飾的房間裏接受英國《金融時報》採訪時，他看起來不僅關注可能出現的市場阻滯和小危機，而且還關注更長期的美國增長前景。
Economists led by Larry Summers, former Treasury secretary, have been propounding the sobering theory that the US may be mired in so-called secular stagnation — a trap of lethargic economic growth and depressed interest rates.
以美國前財長拉里•薩默斯(Larry Summers)爲首的經濟學家一直在提出一個令人警醒的理論，即美國可能深陷所謂的“長期停滯”——經濟增長乏力，同時利率低迷。
For a while the Fed resisted that dismal prognosis. But Mr Powell, a level-headed centrist on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, appears increasingly alive to the possibility, even if he says secular stagnation is not his “baseline” expectation.
美聯儲一度不接受這種悲觀的預測。但在制定利率的美聯儲公開市場委員會(FOMC)中屬於頭腦冷靜的中間派的鮑威爾，似乎越來越關注這種可能性，即便他表示，長期停滯並非他的“基礎”預期。
“I am more worried about it than I was,” he said. “The probability of an era of weaker growth, lower potential growth, for a longer period of time — that worries me more than it used to.”
他說：“我比以前更加擔心這種可能性了。我比以前更加擔心美國陷入更長時期的增長放緩和潛在增速下降的可能性。”
To achieve economic growth forecasts, Fed rates will “just have to be lower than I thought,” he added.
他補充稱，要實現經濟增長預測，美聯儲利率將“不得不比我之前預計的更低一些”。
One reflection of the quagmire is the gradual decline in Fed policymakers’ estimates for the long-term federal funds rate.
體現這種困境的一個跡象是，美聯儲政策制定者對長期聯邦基金利率的估計逐步下降。
“I don’t think that process is over,” Mr Powell said. “The median estimate on the committee is 3 per cent for the long-term federal funds rate. It could be lower than that, in my view.”
鮑威爾表示：“我認爲這個過程仍未結束。FOMC對長期聯邦基金利率的估計中值是3%。就我看來可能會低於3%。”
Having lifted rates in December by a quarter point to a range of 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent and sat still since then, the Fed is weighing conflicting signals at home and overseas as it looks towards its September meeting.
美聯儲在去年12月加息25個基點，利率上調至0.25%到0.5%的區間，並自那以來保持不變，在即將迎來9月議息會議之際，它如今正在權衡國內外各種彼此衝突的信號。
The US economy, Mr Powell said, is “not full of risk right now”.
鮑威爾說，美國經濟現在“並非充滿風險”。
But he added: “The issue is that if you look around the world there are just a lot of risks that could affect us. So it is a US economy that is probably pretty close to its pattern of the last seven years, but the risks to us from the global economy are to the downside.”
但他補充稱：“問題在於，如果你環顧世界，就會發現許多風險可能影響到我們。因此美國經濟很可能接近過去7年的模式，但全球經濟對我們造成了下行風險。”
He said it was hard to raise rates “in a world where everyone else is cutting and demand is weak around the world”.
他說，在一個“其他國家都在降息而需求疲弱的世界裏”很難加息。
“The expectation of rate increases has produced a big move up in the dollar since 2014, which has restrained growth.”
“加息預期自2014年以來大幅推升了美元匯率，這抑制了增長。”
Mr Powell was speaking the day before the release of jobs data on Friday that beat expectations.
鮑威爾是在上週五就業數據發佈的前一天作上述評論的。上週五發布的就業數據超過市場預期。
To support a rate increase, Mr Powell said that he would want to see strong growth in employment and demand; inflation heading back to 2 per cent and an absence of obvious “global risk events.”
鮑威爾表示，要支持加息，就業和需求必須出現強勁增長，通脹重回2%，並且沒有明顯的“全球風險事件”。
Fed policymakers are still scanning for potential fallout from Britain’s vote to leave the EU, while questions hang over China’s growth outlook.
美聯儲政策制定者仍在研究英國投票退出歐盟帶來的潛在影響，而中國的增長前景也打上了問號。
Asked if his preconditions could be satisfied as soon as the Fed’s September meeting, Mr Powell said: “In particular, I need to see two really good employment reports. And then it is a conversation. I wouldn’t be pounding the table saying we really need to raise rates.”
在被問及他的前提條件是否會在美聯儲9月議息會議前得到滿足時，鮑威爾表示：“首先，我需要看到兩份真正強勁的就業報告。其次這只是交談，我不會斬釘截鐵地說我們真的需要加息。”
The former Carlyle Group partner — a keen athlete who cycles to work every day — has spent significant parts of his career at the sharp end of Treasury market structure.
這位前凱雷集團(Carlyle Group)合夥人熱衷運動，每天騎自行車上班 。他的大部分職業生涯都處於美國國債市場的核心。
He served in the Treasury under former President George H.W. Bush, helping to formulate the government’s responses to the Salomon Brothers scandal in 1991. The firm used fake bids to purchase more Treasury securities at auction than was permitted by one institution.
他曾在老布什(George H.W. Bush)政府時期在財政部任職，在1991年幫助政府制定了對所羅門兄弟(Salomon Brothers)醜聞事件的對策。在那場醜聞中，所羅門兄弟在國債拍賣中提交虛假報價，以購買超出一家機構允許購買量的國債。
Mr Powell has recently been vocal on the intricate plumbing of markets, advocating the central clearing of so-called repo transactions in a bid to alleviate some of the capital concerns that big banks blame for their pullback from the market. Repo markets are integral to the functioning of the broader Treasury market, allowing financial institutions to borrow and lend securities short term in order to cover obligations to other counterparties.
鮑威爾最近一直就錯綜複雜的市場暴跌發聲，他主張集中清算所謂的“回購交易”，以緩解資本擔憂，目前各大銀行紛紛將自己撤出市場歸咎於這種擔憂。回購市場對於更廣泛的國債市場運轉是必不可少的，讓金融機構能夠短期地借貸證券來履行對對手方的義務。
But higher capital charges have made the transfer of Treasuries more expensive.
但提高資本要求讓國債轉移變得成本更高。
It is part of the industry’s explanation for why liquidity, the ease of buying and selling an asset, has declined in Treasury markets.
這是業內對國債市場流行性（買賣資產的便利性）下降的部分解釋。
Mr Powell has spoken in chorus with the Fed and Treasury in rejecting the industry’s concerns that market liquidity has become markedly worse. But he remains attuned to the potential for problems to arise.
美聯儲和財政部反駁了業內關於市場流動性明顯惡化的擔憂，鮑威爾的言辭也與之一致。但他仍然認爲可能出現問題。
“Most of the time in most markets liquidity is okay. But it may be more fragile, and more prone to disappearing in stress situations,” he says. “There hasn’t been a liquidity-related incident that has had a significant effect on the real economy. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen.”
他說：“在大多數時間裏，大多數市場的流動性還不錯。但在壓力情形下，它可能變得更爲脆弱，也更容易消失。雖然現在還沒有出現對實體經濟造成重大影響的流動性相關事件，但這並不意味着將來不會有。”
