美聯儲官員擔憂通脹預期下降

Tumbling inflation expectations in financial markets are becoming “worrisome”, a Federal Reserve interest-rate setter has warned, highlighting the risks to the inflation outlook posed by sliding energy prices.

美聯儲(Federal Reserve)一位利率政策制定者警告稱，金融市場連連下跌的通脹預期正變得“令人擔憂”，此言突顯了能源價格下跌對通脹前景構成的風險。

James Bullard, president of the St Louis Federal Reserve, said lower energy prices were a net positive for the US economy but that declines could mean it would take longer than previously expected for headline inflation to return to the central bank’s 2 per cent target.

聖路易斯聯儲銀行(St Louis Federal Reserve)行長詹姆士布拉德(James Bullard，見上圖)表示，能源價格下跌給美國經濟帶來淨效益，但它也意味着整體通脹率將需要更久才能迴歸美聯儲設定的2%的目標。

His remarks at the Economic Club of Memphis will add to questions over the US interest-rate outlook amid doubts on China’s growth prospects, sharp declines in commodity prices and days of turmoil in global markets. A number of US policymakers have struck a cautious tone this month following the Fed’s landmark quarter-point interest rate increase on December 16.

他在孟菲斯經濟學俱樂部(Economic Club of Memphis)的講話將加大人們對美國利率前景的疑問，目前各方對中國增長前景、大宗商品價格大幅下滑以及全球股市持續多日的動盪已經感到擔憂。在美聯儲去年12月16日曆史性地決定加息25個基點後，本月美國多名政策制定者的語氣都很謹慎。

While central bankers should normally look through changes in energy prices to gauge the underlying trend in inflation, it would become more problematic if people’s expectations for inflation began to fall, said Mr Bullard, normally viewed as a Fed hawk.

通常被視爲美聯儲鷹派的布拉德表示，雖然央行官員照理在衡量通脹的根本走勢時應當看透能源價格的變化，但如果人們的通脹預期開始下降，問題將變得更嚴重。

Minutes to the December policymakers meeting showed they voiced “significant concern” about low inflation. Divisions within the committee were highlighted as some said their decision to sign up to an increase was a “close call”.

12月的美聯儲會議紀要顯示，利率政策制定者對低通脹表示了“重大關切”。聯邦公開市場委員會內部的分歧相當明顯，部分委員稱最終決定加息是一個“謹慎拿捏的判斷”。

While Fed policymakers’ forecasts suggest the central bank is set to lift rates another four times this year in quarter-point increments, traders are betting on fewer increases.

雖然美聯儲政策制定者的預測表明，美國央行今年準備再加息四次，每次加息25基點，但交易員猜測的加息次數少一些。

“I have argued that market-based measures of inflation expectations have been unduly influenced by the large movements in crude oil prices,” he said. “Nevertheless, with renewed declines in crude.. associated decline in market-based inflation expectations measures is becoming worrisome.”

布拉德說：“我提出，基於市場的通脹預期指標過度受到油價大幅變化的影響。不過，鑑於油價再度下跌……基於市場的通脹預期指標的相應下降正變得令人擔憂。”

Low inflation expectations may keep actual inflation lower, making it harder for the Fed to hit its target, Mr Bullard said. Market-based inflation expectations have sagged in tandem with the recovery and sliding energy prices.

布拉德表示，低通脹預期可能讓實際通脹更低，令美聯儲更難達到通脹目標。基於市場的通脹預期隨着能源價格的下滑而陷入低迷。

His views will be watched closely as he takes up the position of a voter on the Federal Open Market Committee. Eric Rosengren, the Boston Fed president and another voter this year, said on Wednesday that weak oil and commodity prices raised concerns that global growth has “slowed significantly”.

鑑於布拉德將成爲聯邦公開市場委員會的投票委員，他的觀點將受到密切關注。今年的另一名投票委員，波士頓聯儲(Boston Fed)行長埃裏克圠森格倫(Eric Rosengren)在週三表示，油價和大宗商品價格疲軟令人擔憂全球經濟增長“顯著放緩”。