美聯儲爲年內加息埋下伏筆

The Federal Reserve yesterday held open the prospect of a second increase in interest rates later this year as it said that near-term risks to the US economy had diminished and the job market recovery had regained momentum.

美聯儲(Federal Reserve)昨日爲今年晚些時候第二次加息埋下伏筆，稱美國經濟面臨的短期風險已經大幅減小，就業市場復甦已經重拾勢頭。

The Federal Open Market Committee kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent at the end of its latest two-day meeting, leaving the rate where it has been since the Fed lifted it by a quarter point from near-zero levels in December.

聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)在最新的兩天會議結束之際，宣佈將聯邦基金利率維持在0.25%至0.5%的目標區間不變，這意味着利率將繼續處於美聯儲去年12月從接近零的水平上調25個基點之後的水平。

It has three scheduled meetings left this year in which it could move rates — in September, November and December and its words left open the chance that it could act as soon as September. Complicating its deliberations is the uncertainty of the US presidential election outcome in November, which could weigh on business confidence.

美國央行今年還有三次計劃中的會議可以調整利率，分別在9月、11月和12月。其措辭暗示最早可能在9月開會時就決定加息。使美聯儲的斟酌複雜化的一個因素，是圍繞11月美國總統大選結果的不確定性，這一不確定性可能拖累商業信心。

The US central bank signalled that some of the worries that hung over its meeting in June have since abated, notably the prospect of a severe blow to global markets stemming from the UK’s referendum vote to leave the EU.

美國央行發出信號表示，籠罩在其6月會議上方的一些憂慮已經消退，尤其是英國公投決定退歐嚴重衝擊全球市場的前景。

While it did not explicitly refer to the Brexit vote, the committee said: “Near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished.”

儘管FOMC沒有明確提及英國退歐的公投結果，但該委員會稱：“經濟前景的短期風險已經大幅減小。”

Rob Carnell, chief international economist at ING, said: “Judging by the text of the accompanying statement to the Fed decision, it looks as if they are trying to prepare markets for a hike far sooner than markets have been expecting.”

荷蘭國際集團(ING)的首席國際經濟學家羅布•卡內爾(Rob Carnell)表示：“從美聯儲決定附帶的聲明措辭看，似乎他們正試圖讓市場做好準備，迎接比市場近來預期早得多的加息。”

However, the Fed also maintained that it remained on guard for renewed turbulence in markets or world economies, suggesting it would continue to tread carefully before considering a second rate rise. “The committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments,” it said in a statement.

不過，美聯儲也繼續表示，它仍然對市場或世界經濟再起動盪保持警惕，似乎表明它在考慮第二次加息之前仍將謹慎行事。“委員會將繼續密切監測通脹指標以及全球經濟和金融動態，”它在一份聲明中表示。

The Fed last month pared back its interest-rate forecasts as it assessed foreign hazards including the prospect of a UK EU exit vote, as well as subdued US jobs numbers. Since then markets have rebounded, reducing some of the concerns about the knock-on effects of the Brexit vote outside Europe.

美聯儲上月曾下調其利率預測，當時它在評估各項境外危險（包括英國公投退歐的可能性），以及美國的疲弱就業數據。自那以來市場已經反彈，降低了一些有關英國退歐的連鎖反應擴散到歐洲以外的擔憂。

The International Monetary Fund this month trimmed its world growth forecasts because the Brexit vote has caused a “substantial” increase in economic, political and institutional uncertainty. But the fund left its forecast for US growth next year unchanged at 2.5 per cent while paring its 2016 outlook.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)本月下調了全球經濟增長預測，理由是英國公投退歐已導致經濟、政治和機構不確定性“大幅”上升。但該組織在調降美國2016年增長預測的同時，保持2017年美國增長預測不變，仍爲2.5%。

A sharp slowdown in payroll growth heavily influenced the Fed’s June meeting, but since then there has been a bounceback in hiring, with payrolls growing by 287,000 in June, at least 100,000 more than had been forecast by analysts.

就業人數增長劇烈放緩曾嚴重影響美聯儲6月會議，但自那以來企業僱用人數出現反彈，6月份新增就業人數28.7萬，比分析師們的預測至少高出10萬。

In its statement yesterday, the Fed also highlighted strong growth in household spending — the key driver of the US economic recovery. Esther George, the hawkish president of the Kansas City Fed, renewed her call for an immediate rate increase, but the rest of the FOMC voted for rates to remain unchanged.

美聯儲在昨日聲明中還強調了家庭支出（美國經濟復甦的主要驅動力）的強勁增長。堪薩斯城聯邦儲備銀行(Kansas City Fed)的鷹派行長埃絲特•喬治(Esther George)再度呼籲立即加息，但FOMC的其餘成員投票贊成維持利率不變。