美聯儲對加息時機仍存分歧

Many Federal Reserve policy makers want to see more evidence that the US economy is strengthening before pulling the trigger on rate rises, according to minutes of a meeting marked by concerns over the Greek stand-off and the potential for a Chinese slowdown.

美聯儲(Fed)議息會議的會議記錄顯示，多名美聯儲政策制定者希望在啓動加息前看到更多美國經濟走強的證據。這次議息會議以對希臘對峙局面和中國放緩可能性的擔憂爲特徵。

Minutes from the meeting from June 16-17 struck a broadly positive tone about developments in the US economy, highlighting stronger consumer spending, corporate hiring, housing market activity and signs of wage growth. The stabilisation of oil prices and the dollar would reduce downward pressure on inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee noted.

這次議息會議於6月16日到17日召開。在該會議記錄中，人們對美國經濟發展的語氣普遍比較積極，其中重點提到了美國消費支出增大、企業用工人數增加和樓市交易活動增強，還有多種跡象表明薪資水平也出現了增長。聯邦公開市場委員會(Federal Open Market Committee)指出，油價和美元的趨穩，會減輕通脹率的下行壓力。

Still, the minutes revealed a committee that remained divided over when the conditions would be right to raise rates from their current near-zero levels, noting that while some thought the conditions for a rate rise had nearly been met, a number of members were cautioning against a “premature decision”.

不過，據會議記錄披露，對於何時把利率從目前接近零的水平提升上來，委員會依然存在分歧。該會議記錄指出，雖然部分人認爲加息條件已接近成熟，還有多名與會人員則提醒人們不要“過早做出決定”。

Participants gave “a number of reasons to be cautious in assessing the outlook”, the minutes said, with some members citing the possibility that consumer spending stays sluggish, or that there could be persistent drags on the economy from the high dollar and weak oil prices.

會議記錄表明，與會者提出了“多個謹慎評估前景的理由”。一些委員會成員提到了消費者支出保持低迷的可能性。還有人提到，美元高企和油價疲軟可能會持續拖累美國經濟。

Janet Yellen, the Fed chair, stressed last month that rate rises would be “gradual” as she insisted the first rise could come this year. Projections unveiled by the committee showed a shallower path of tightening in the coming years, as well as an FOMC that was divided over whether there should be one, two or, indeed, no rate moves this year.

美聯儲主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)上月強調，加息將是“漸進式”的，並堅稱首次加息將在今年啓動。委員會披露的預測表明，未來幾年緊縮將以較小的幅度展開。而且，在今年到底應該開展一次、兩次還是根本不開展利率調整的問題上，委員會還存在分歧。

The Fed in June left its target range for the Fed funds rate at zero to 0.25 per cent, the historic low it has occupied since 2008.

6月，美聯儲偏離了其對聯邦基金利率設立的目標區間——零利率至0.25%。自2008年以來美聯儲一直將目標區間保持在這一歷史最低水平。

Internationally, a great deal has changed since the FOMC’s June meeting.

在聯邦公開市場委員會6月會議後，國際事務發生了很大的變化。

The chaos in Greece worsened sharply as the country imposed capital controls and bank closures and held a referendum in which official creditors’ bailout terms were rejected. In China, a stock market rout has prompted Beijing to take drastic actions aimed at steadying the market, including bans on share sales by big stakeholders and the use of central bank money to bolster the market.

希臘的混亂局勢急劇惡化，該國實施了資本管控，關閉了銀行，並舉行了公投。在這次公投中，希臘拒絕了官方債權人的紓困條款。在中國，一輪股市崩盤已促使北京方面採取強力措施穩定股市。這些舉措包括禁止大股東賣出股票，以及動用央行資金提振股市。

Greece was a concern for many of the Fed policy makers in the meeting, the minutes showed. There was a risk of disruptions to euro area financial markets if the sides failed to resolve their differences, with “possible spillover effects on the United States”.

會議記錄顯示，許多美聯儲政策制定者擔憂希臘問題。一旦各方未能解決分歧，歐元區金融市場存在瓦解的風險，“可能會對美國產生溢出效應”。

Not all FOMC members appear overly concerned, however. John Williams, the president of the San Francisco Fed, said in a speech on Wednesday that events in Greece were unlikely to overturn the “strong fundamentals” of the US economy, adding that a recent trip to China had made him less worried about that economy.

不過，並非所有委員會成員都對此極爲憂慮。舊金山聯邦儲備銀行(San Francisco Fed)行長約翰•威廉姆斯(John Williams)週三發表講話說，希臘發生的事件不太可能扭轉美國經濟“強勁的基本面”。他還補充說，最近對中國的訪問，令他減輕了對中國經濟的憂慮。

Some FOMC members said the conditions for raising rates had already been met or would be met “shortly”. Labour market conditions had improved, with solid hiring levels, low unemployment insurance claims, and a shift of workers into more stable, higher skilled jobs. Several FOMC members said there were signs of improvement in the inflation outlook, especially after a stabilisation in the dollar and energy prices, which have been drags.

一些委員會成員表示，加息的條件已經成熟，或者“很快”就會成熟。勞動力市場狀況已經好轉，用工人數穩步增長，領取失業救濟的人數處於較低水平，就業者也已轉向更穩定、更高技能的工作崗位。幾名委員會成員表示，通脹前景也有改善跡象，尤其是一直是拖累因素的美元和能源價格趨於穩定。

For most FOMC members, however, it was still too soon to advocate a rate move, even if conditions continued to improve steadily.

然而，對於多數委員會成員來說，即使情況繼續穩步改善，支持利率調整仍然爲時過早。