美聯儲明年可能僅加息兩次

The Federal Reserve will wait six months before raising interest rates again, according to a survey of top economists that suggests policymakers will maintain a cautious approach to tightening policy until they see the economic package US president-elect Donald Trump has promised.

一項對頂級經濟學家的調查顯示，美聯儲(Federal Reserve)在再次加息之前將等待6個月，這似乎表明，政策制定者在看到美國當選總統唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)承諾的一攬子經濟政策之前，將對收緊政策保持謹慎態度。

Officials will raise the Fed’s key short-term rate just twice in 2017, starting with a move in June, an FT survey of 31 Wall Street economists found.

英國《金融時報》對31位華爾街經濟學家的調查發現，官員們在2017年將僅兩次上調美聯儲主要短期利率，第一次將在6月進行。

The findings come days after the central bank pushed its official rate higher for only the second time since the financial crisis and rattled bond markets by projecting three further moves next year.

調查結果出爐的幾天前，美國央行進行了自金融危機以來的僅僅第二次加息，並預測明年還將加息三次，讓債券市場受到驚嚇。

Global growth will improve next year but remain under its long term trend, said Gregory Daco, an economist with Oxford Economics.

明年全球經濟增長將會改善，但仍將處於長期趨勢線下方，牛津經濟研究院(Oxford Economics)經濟學家格雷戈裏.達科(Gregory Daco)說。

Mr Trump’s policies, and the expectation of them, will be pivotal to global developments.

特朗普的政策，以及對這些政策的預期，將是全球形勢的關鍵。

The property magnate’s US election victory last month helped end a record-breaking debt rally that had pushed interest rates across developed economies to fresh lows over the summer.

這位房地產大亨上月當選美國總統，幫助結束了一波創紀錄的債務漲勢，後者在今年夏天把發達經濟體的利率壓低至新的低點。

Investors and traders are anticipating that working with a Republican-controlled Congress, Mr Trump will be able to deliver tax cuts and fiscal stimulus that turbocharges the US economy.

投資者和交易員們預計，與共和黨控制的國會合作，特朗普將能夠兌現減稅和財政刺激承諾，有力提振美國經濟。

However, the FT survey found that economists expect the gloss Mr Trump can add to US growth next year and in 2018 to be modest.

然而，上述英國《金融時報》調查發現，經濟學家們預期，特朗普明年和2018年給美國經濟增長帶來的推動作用不會太大。

The US will grow an additional 0.2 percentage points in 2017 thanks to a stimulus package from Mr Trump, putting overall expansion at 2.2 per cent, economists project.

經濟學家們預測，得益於特朗普的刺激計劃，美國經濟2017年將多增長0.2個百分點，總體增長率達到2.2%。

In 2018, Mr Trump’s contribution will be 0.4 percentage points, pushing GDP growth to 2.3 per cent.

2018年，特朗普的貢獻將是0.4個百分點，推動國內生產總值(GDP)增長率達到2.3%。

In recent years, financial markets have been sceptical of the trajectory for interest rates that the Fed lays out in its quarterly dot plots.

近年來，金融市場對美聯儲在其季度點圖上標出的利率軌跡持懷疑態度。

This year, for example, the central bank began forecasting four interest rate rises but delivered just one.

以今年爲例，美國央行最初預測四次加息，但結果只加了一次。

However, following the Fed’s December meeting, interest-rate futures now put the odds of policymakers following through on three rises in 2017 at 46 per cent.

然而，在美聯儲12月會議之後，從利率期貨看，市場認爲政策制定者在2017年兌現三次加息這個預測的機率爲46%。

That brings the expectation of financial markets closer to the Fed’s own forecasts than they have been all year.

這意味着相比今年全年的情況，金融市場的預期現在更接近美聯儲自己的預測。

The sharp move in bond yields last week underlines that markets are taking the Fed’s projections more seriously.

上週債券收益率急劇上升，突顯市場對美聯儲的預測更加重視。

The yield on the two-year Treasury jumped as high as 1.3 per cent, the highest level since 2009, while an important short-term US dollar money market rate, three-month Libor, on Friday approached 1 per cent for the first time since 2009.

兩年期美國國債收益率高達1.3%，是2009年以來的最高水平，而重要的短期美元貨幣市場利率——3個月倫敦同業拆借利率(Libor)——上週五自2009年以來首次接近1%。

According to the FT survey, the target range for the Fed’s funds rate will end 2017 at 1 per cent to 1.25 per cent.

根據英國《金融時報》調查，美聯儲聯邦基金利率的目標區間在2017年底將達到1%至1.25%。

The FT conducted its survey between December 15 and 16.

英國《金融時報》是在12月15日至16日進行此項調查。