美聯儲對再次加息時間意見分歧

Many Federal Reserve policymakers were warning of “appreciable” risks to the US economy from global turbulence at their latest meeting as the deeply divided group debated how soon to further increase short-term interest rates.

美聯儲(Fed)多名政策制定者在最近會議上警告全球動盪給美國經濟帶來“可觀”風險，分歧嚴重的官員們在會上就多快進一步上調短期利率展開辯論。

Worries about the central bank’s ability to ease policy if the US unexpectedly hit the buffers hung heavily over the March 15-16 meeting, at which all but one member of the Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep rates on hold.

3月15日至16日的利率會議深深籠罩着這種擔憂：如果美國意外觸礁，這家央行有多大能力放鬆政策？在這次會議上，除一位委員以外，聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)其他所有委員都投票贊成維持利率不變。

The minutes to the March meeting revealed policymakers at loggerheads over when next to tighten policy following December’s rise, as some advocated a move as soon as April while others warned this would show undue urgency.

3月會議的會議紀要顯示，關於在去年12月加息後下一次何時收緊貨幣政策，政策制定者存在分歧，一些人提倡在4月就採取行動，另一些人則警告稱這將表現出不必要的緊迫感。

In the meeting the Fed scaled back its 2016 interest rate forecasts to two quarter-point rises, falling closer into line with subdued market expectations as it flagged up risks to the US outlook from markets and weaker growth abroad.

在這次會議上，美聯儲將其對2016年利率的預測下調至兩次加息，每次加息25個基點，接近低迷的市場預期，同時美聯儲提出市場和海外較疲弱增長對美國前景構成的風險。

Since then Janet Yellen, the Fed chair, has stressed the central bank should “proceed cautiously” as it mulls when to next lift interest rates, suggesting she does not want to rush ahead with a second rate increase.

此後，美聯儲主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)已強調央行在考慮下次何時加息的問題上應“謹慎前行”，這暗示，她無意匆忙進行第二次加息。

Public statements have pointed to disagreements among officials, however, with a number of regional Fed presidents putting forward a bullish view.

然而，公開聲明表明美聯儲官員之間存在分歧，很多地區聯儲銀行行長提出樂觀觀點。

The minutes shed further light on these disagreements, with policymakers differing for example over whether the US is nearly at full employment and how much weight to put on a recent pickup in inflation and subdued inflation expectations.

會議紀要進一步顯示出了這些分歧，例如，在美國是否近乎處於完全就業以及在多大程度上重視最近通脹上升以及通脹預期低迷等問題上，政策制定者有不同意見。

Several warned that a move as soon as this month would “signal a sense of urgency they did not think appropriate”, even as others emphasised the strengthening labour market and inflation outlook as they argued for action.

幾名美聯儲官員警告稱，本月加息將“表明一種他們認爲不適當的緊迫感”，另一些官員支持加息，強調勞動力市場和通脹前景日益走強。

The minutes confirm that for many Fed policymakers the financial market turmoil that accompanied the start of the year remains an active concern, suggesting they are in no hurry to lift rates.

會議紀要證實，對於美聯儲多名政策制定者而言，今年年初以來的金融市場動盪仍是一個值得積極關切的問題，似乎表明他們不急於加息。

“Several participants expressed the view that the underlying factors abroad that led to a sharp, though temporary, deterioration in global financial conditions earlier this year had not been fully resolved and thus posed downside risks,” the minutes said.

會議紀要稱：“幾名與會者認爲，導致今年早些時候全球金融狀況嚴重惡化（儘管是暫時的）的基本因素尚未完全化解，因此構成下行風險。”