發展中國家興起水電站熱潮 環境社會風險堪憂

While some dams in the United States and Europe are being decommissioned, a dam-building boom is underway in developing countries. It is a shift from the 1990s, when amid concerns about environmental impacts and displaced people, multilateral lenders like the World Bank backed away from large hydroelectric power projects.

美國和歐洲廢棄一些大壩時，發展中國家卻掀起了興建大壩的熱潮。上世紀90年代的趨勢發生了重大改變，當時由於擔心影響環境和居民流離失所的問題，世界銀行(World Bank)等多邊借貸機構都開始迴避大型水電項目。

World hydropower production will grow from 4,000 terawatt hours now — about the annual power output of the United States — to 4,670 terawatt hours in 2020, according to Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the International Energy Agency, in Paris. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that hydropower generation will double in China between 2008 and 2035, and triple in India and Africa.

總部位於巴黎的國際能源署（International Energy Agency，簡稱IEA）的總幹事瑪麗亞·範德胡芬(Maria van der Hoeven)表示，到2020年，全球水力發電量將從現在的4萬億千瓦時——大約相當於美國一年的發電量——提高到4.67萬億千瓦時。政府間氣候變化專門委員會（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change，簡稱IPCC）預測，中國的水力發電量在2008至2035年間會翻一番，印度和非洲的水力發電量將會增加兩倍。

The World Bank and other international lenders were the most important financiers of large dams before the ’90s lull. But although the World Bank has in recent years increased its investment in hydropower from a low of just a few million dollars in 1999 to about $1.8 billion in 2014, it still funds only 2 percent of hydropower project investment today.

世界銀行及其他國際借貸機構曾是水壩項目最重要的資助者，但它們從20世紀90年代以來減少了投資。雖然近年來，世界銀行又增加了對水力發電項目的投資，從1999年的數百萬美元，提高到了2014年的18億美元（約合110億元人民幣），但該銀行的投資金額在水電項目的整體投資規模中只佔2%。

Picking up the slack are national development banks from emerging countries such as China, Brazil, Thailand, and India, and private investors. Public-private partnerships are on the rise, generally with the support of regional development banks.

其餘資金則來自中國、巴西、泰國、印度等新興國家的國家開發銀行，以及私營部門投資者。公私合作的模式也在不斷髮展，而且一般受到地區開發銀行的支持。

“Who benefits from these infrastructure projects?” asked Jason Rainey, executive director of the anti-dam group International Rivers, in Berkeley, Calif.

總部設在加利福尼亞州伯克利的國際河流組織(International Rivers)反對建造大壩，該組織的執行主任賈森· 雷尼(Jason Rainey) 問道，“誰會從這些基礎設施項目中獲益？”

Some well-documented answers: The Xayaburi Dam in Laos will sell power to Thailand, while threatening the subsistence livelihoods of people who have long lived along the Mekong River; the Inga 3 dam in the Democratic Republic of Congo will sell power to mining companies and to South Africa, rather than to the 96 percent of Congolese who lack access to electricity.

以下是一些衆所周知的答案：老撾的沙耶武裏水壩(Xayaburi Dam)將向泰國售電，但對那些長期生活在湄公河沿岸的民衆的生計造成了威脅；剛果民主共和國的英加三期(Inga-3)水電大壩的供電對象是礦業公司和南非，而不是剛果民衆，96%的剛果人用不上電。

A 2012 report from International Rivers found that Chinese companies or financiers were involved in 308 dam projects in 70 different countries, many in Southeast Asia, but also some in Africa, Latin America and Pakistan. Aside from supplying electricity to investing countries, projects can also offer a type of vertical integration to power funders’ industrial projects, such as mining or smelting. “China isn’t the only one working this model,” Mr. Rainey said: “The Brazilian Development Bank has financed more dam projects in Latin America than the Inter-American Development Bank. India is investing in hydropower in Nepal and Bhutan.”

國際河流2012年發佈的一份報告指出，中國公司或投資方參與了70個國家的308個大壩項目，其中有很多在東南亞，但也有一些地處非洲、拉丁美洲和巴基斯坦。除了爲投資國供電，大壩項目還會爲投資者的工業項目，比如採礦或冶金項目，提供了一種垂直整合的模式。“中國不是唯一採取這種模式的國家，”雷尼說。“巴西開發銀行(The Brazilian Development Bank)在拉丁美洲資助的大壩項目比美洲開發銀行(Inter-American Development Bank)多。印度也正在尼泊爾、不丹投資水力發電項目。”

Nancy Alexander, director of the Economic Governance Program for the Heinrich Böll Foundation, a public policy institute in Berlin, said she attributed this trend partly to a Group of 20 initiative that prioritized infrastructure investment as a path to economic stability.

柏林的公共政策研究機構海因裏希·伯爾基金會(Heinrich Böll Foundation)的經濟管理項目(Economic Governance Program)主任南茜·亞歷山大(Nancy Alexander)表示，她將這種趨勢部分歸因於20國集團提出的一項計劃，即優先考慮基礎設施方面的投資，以此作爲一種促進經濟穩定的方式。

The initiative encourages joint financing by multilateral development banks and other sources. A World Bank report on hydropower this year said that the bank now “typically acts as a ‘convener,’ bringing other financiers to the table.” It said that over the past five years, the World Bank Group had funded about half of the costs of projects that it financed, with the balance coming from host country governments, the private sector and other development banks.

該計劃鼓勵多邊開發銀行及其他機構共同提供資金。世界銀行今年發佈了有關水力發電的報告，稱該銀行現在“通常是充當‘召集人’，招攬其他投資方提供融資”。報告稱，在過去五年中，世界銀行集團提供的資金，在其資助項目耗費的成本中佔了大約一半，其餘資金則來自項目所在國政府、私營部門，及其他開發銀行。

Ms. Alexander said the problem with this model is that it “derisks” mega-projects for the private sector and draws in institutional investors like pension funds and mutual funds. “Very often this means privatizing profits and outsourcing risks to the public,” she said.

亞歷山大表示，這種模式的問題在於，它消除了私營部門投資大型項目的風險，還吸引養老基金、共同基金等機構投資者進行投資。她說，“這通常意味着利潤私有化，將風險推給公衆。”

Those risks can be both significant and hidden, she added. Project backers may cite national security or business confidentiality to avoid sharing information with the public.

她還表示，這些風險可能會非常大，並且很隱蔽。項目投資者可能會以國家安全或商業機密爲由，不向公衆披露信息。

National development banks such as the Brazilian Development Bank, China Development Bank and the Development Bank of Southern Africa “have abysmal records in terms of transparency and in terms of social and environmental safeguards,” Ms. Alexander said.

各國的開發銀行，比如巴西開發銀行、中國開發銀行，以及南部非洲開發銀行(Development Bank of Southern Africa)，“在社會影響和環境保護方面的透明度，一直都極其糟糕，”亞歷山大說。

The reduced involvement of global institutions allows countries to ignore international concerns. Although international backers have pulled out, for example, public-private funding has permitted Turkey to go ahead with its Ilisu Dam on the Tigris, defying Unesco’s objections that it would flood Hasankeyf, a town with 10,000 years of history. Turkish dam projects have also played a role in drying out Iraqi wetlands downstream and exacerbating tensions in Syria.

全球性機構的參與減少了，各國就可能會無視國際社會的關切。比如，土耳其在底格里斯河上修建伊利蘇大壩(Ilisu Dam)的項目，由於水位將淹沒已有1萬年曆史的古城哈桑凱伊夫，而受到了聯合國教科文組織(Unesco)的反對。儘管國際投資方已經撤出，但來自公共部門和私營部門的資金，卻仍在推動這個項目繼續進行。土耳其的一些水壩項目也在一定程度上導致處在下游的伊拉克溼地乾涸，並加劇了敘利亞的緊張局勢。

Yet, although dam investment is coming from diversified sources, activist organizations still look to the World Bank to set the standard for environmental and social protections. At the World Bank’s annual meetings this autumn, 318 civil society organizations from 98 countries criticized its proposal for a new environmental and social framework, saying it would weaken existing safeguards. Among other things, they said, it would undermine the rights of indigenous people and of those displaced by projects, fail to protect workers or guarantee human rights and not meaningfully address climate change.

然而，儘管大壩投資的來源日趨多元化，但倡導組織仍然期待世界銀行能設定社會影響和環境保護的標準。今年秋天，在世界銀行年度會議上，來自98個國家的318個民間團體，對該機構提出的一個新的環境和社會框架表達了批評，稱這會削弱現有的保護措施。他們提出，這會損害原住民的權利、損害因項目而流離失所的居民的權利。該框架也未能保護工人、保障人權，並未有意義地應對氣候變化問題。

“They have a lot of weasel language that softens and dampens safeguards,” Mr. Rainey said.

雷尼說：“提案中有很多狡猾的措辭，軟化並削弱了保障性的條文。”

Amy Stilwell, a spokeswoman for the World Bank, said the proposal was just a starting point. A second phase of consultations, including those with the petitioning groups, will begin soon, with a second draft expected in 2015, she said.

世界銀行發言人艾米·斯迪威爾(Amy Stilwell)說，該提案只是一個起點。她表示，該機構很快就會開始第二階段的諮詢，包括與請願團體磋商，第二稿預計於2015年完成。

Part of the reason dams are back in favor, despite ongoing concerns, is the increasing awareness of climate change and the need for cleaner energy sources, said Ken Adams, president of the International Hydropower Association, an industry group based in London. Hydropower can also balance the electricity load and store energy to support intermittent renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, he said.

國際水電協會(International Hydropower Association)是一個總部設在倫敦的行業團體，其主席肯·亞當斯(Ken Adams)說，儘管關於水壩的擔憂一直存在，但由於人們對氣候變化日益重視，也需要更清潔的能源，興建水壩又受到了青睞。而且水電還可以平衡電力負荷、儲存電量，爲風能、太陽能等間歇性的可再生能源提供支持，他說。

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change supports hydropower to slow climate change, calling it a “proven, mature, predictable technology,” in a 2011 report.

IPCC支持用水電來減緩氣候變化。在2011年的一份報告中，IPCC稱，“它是已獲得事實證明的、成熟的、可預測的技術。”

Hydropower’s reputation for low emissions, however, has come under scientific scrutiny in recent years. Reservoirs behind dams flood vegetation, which decays, releasing methane and soil carbon. A 2012 study, in the journal Nature Climate Change, concluded that “emissions from tropical hydropower are often underestimated and can exceed those of fossil fuel for decades.”

然而，近幾年來，水電“排放量低”的說法遭受了科學上的挑戰。大壩背後的水庫會淹沒植被，使之腐爛，釋放出甲烷和土壤碳。2012年，《自然·氣候變化》(Nature Climate Change)雜誌發表了一項相關研究，其結論是，“熱帶水電站的排放量常常被低估，它們可能在長達幾十年的時間裏，超過化石燃料的排放量。”

The study emphasized that the effect is more pronounced in tropical ecosystems. Yet hydropower is typically presumed to be emission-free, Mr. Rainey said. “There is no mechanism within dam sanctioning processes, or any of the funding models, that methane emissions be monitored in dam projects,” he said, adding that even carbon market instruments such as the Clean Development Mechanism help to fund large dams without considering their carbon footprints.

這項研究強調，在熱帶生態系統中，這種效應會更加明顯。雷尼表示，人們通常認爲水電不會有碳排放。“在水壩審批手續和融資模式中，都沒有監測水壩項目中甲烷排放量的機制，”他說。即使是碳市場工具，比如“清潔發展機制”(Clean Development Mechanism)，也在幫助大型水壩融資，卻並沒有考慮它們的碳足跡。

Mr. Adams said his association’s voluntary standards could offer a solution. Its Hydropower Sustainability Assessment Protocol, drafted with input from various stakeholders, including the World Bank, provides a framework for hydropower developers to monitor and benchmark their projects. William Rex, a hydropower specialist at the World Bank said: “We see it as a really useful tool.”

亞當斯說，他所在的協會提出的自願性標準可以提供一種解決方案。這套標準名爲“水電可持續性評估規程”(Hydropower Sustainability Assessment Protocol)，由多個利益相關方起草，其中包括世界銀行。這套規程提供了一個框架，供水電開發方監測自己的項目，並進行基準比較。世界銀行的水電專家威廉姆·雷克斯(William Rex)說：“我們認爲這是一種非常有用的工具。”

Mr. Adams said his association would like to see financial institutions encourage borrowers to use it. “Any energy source is going to have its good side and downside,” said Mr. Adams. “But I believe that if done intelligently and appropriately, the downsides to hydro projects can be managed.”

亞當斯表示，協會希望看到各大金融機構鼓勵借款方使用該規程。“任何能源都有利有弊，”亞當斯說。“但我相信，如果明智而適度地開發，那麼水利工程帶來的負面影響是可以控制的。”