關注社會:中國股市爲何不漲?

When it announced new stock listing rules over the weekend, the Chinese securities regulator was trying to end a decade of underachievement.

當中國的證券監管機構在週末期間公佈新股發行新規時，它試圖終結中國股市過去十年中表現不佳的局面。

The best economic growth story of the 21st century has been a poor investment play. While its gross domestic product has shot up, China's equity market has languished.

21世紀最強的經濟增長神話沒能造就一次絕佳的投資良機。儘管中國的國內生產總值(GDP)迅速增長，但中國股票市場的發展卻步履維艱。

Part of the blame has been an initial public offering system that consistently overprices shares, to the benefit of newly listed companies and their underwriters. Those buying into IPOs on their first day of trading have lost money, and the mass of ordinary investors in China has slowly lost confidence in stocks.

之所以會有這樣的反差，部分原因在於中國的首次公開發行(IPO)體制。在該體制下時常會出現新股定價過高的狀況，從而有利於上市公司以及它們的承銷商。而那些在交易首日買入新股的投資者則會出現虧損，如此一來，中國的廣大普通投資者也就漸漸對股市失去了信心。

More pre-listing disclosures and greater institutional participation in pricing – the reforms detailed on Sunday – should add some stability to China's casino-like markets. Guo Shuqing, the reformist who was appointed securities regulator six months ago, has also tried to limit insider trading.

4月28日公佈的改革內容包括加大上市前的信息披露力度，並讓機構更多地參與定價環節。這些舉措應該能爲賭場一般的中國股市帶來更大的穩定性。6個月前受命出任中國證監會(CSRC)主席的改革派人士郭樹清還試圖抑制內幕交易。

But he is fighting a paradox seen throughout emerging markets and typified by China: high gross domestic product growth often goes hand-in-hand with lousy stock returns.

然而，他要與這樣一個矛盾作鬥爭：在GDP高速增長的同時，與之相伴的往往卻是股市回報率的低迷。這種現象是整個新興市場的共性，尤以中國的情況最爲典型。

"Companies raising money, not investors, have done well off the stock market. The vast majority of investors have had no way to profit," says Ye Tan, a financial commentator.

財經評論員葉檀指出：“在市場上獲利的主要是融資者，而不是投資者。絕大部分投資者都無法從市場上獲利。”

If China's GDP were a security you could buy, it would have delivered strong returns. The value of China's annual output nearly quintupled from 2000 to 2011, which would have made it one of the best investments in the world.

如果中國的GDP是一款能夠購買的證券產品，它將帶來豐厚的回報。2000年至2011年期間，中國的年度經濟產值增長了近四倍，這會使它成爲世界上最超值的投資產品之一。

But GDP is not a security. The Shanghai Composite Index, something you can invest in, has a much weaker record. It rose about 46 per cent over the past decade, barely keeping pace with inflation. How can China's growth have been so fast and its stocks so sluggish?

但GDP不是一種證券。上證綜指(Shanghai Composite Index)，一種名副其實的投資品，它的表現就要遜色許多。該指數在過去十年間上漲約46%，勉強與通脹水平同步。中國的經濟增長如此之快而股市表現卻如此乏力，這種狀況究竟是如何造成的？

The first thing to note is that China is far from an aberration. GDP is crucial to understanding economic performance, but it has proven a bad predictor of equity returns. As Jay Ritter of the University of Florida and other economists have documented, there is no stable relationship between GDP and stock performance.

首先要指出，中國並沒有偏離正常的軌道。GDP對於理解經濟表現有着至關重要的意義，但對股市回報率而言，GDP的預測作用就要大打折扣了。正如佛羅里達大學(University of Florida)的傑伊?裏特(Jay Ritter)及其他經濟學家所指出的，GDP與股市表現之間並不存在一種穩定的關係。

China illustrates two key reasons why fast-growing countries often disappoint investors.

至於快速增長的經濟體爲何屢屢讓投資者失望，中國給出了兩大重要原因。

First, there is a simple question of maturity. China's stock market was established only two decades ago, so it would have been extremely surprising if it had behaved like long-established bourses in developed economies. Many of the biggest components of the Shanghai Composite Index, including the top banks, listed after 2005.

第一個原因很簡單——股市不夠成熟。中國股市創建至今僅有20年時間，假若中國股市的表現和發達經濟體中那些歷史悠久的股市表現一樣，人們反倒會倍感意外。上證綜指成分股中，有許多權重股（包括幾家大型銀行）均是在2005年之後才上市。

Moreover, there has been a steady dilution of existing investors as China has reformed state-owned companies by gradually "unlocking" their shares for trading. The portion of tradable shares in China has risen from about 30 per cent of listed companies a decade ago to 70 per cent.

另外，中國採取原始股逐步“解禁”的方式推進國企改革，導致現有投資者股權不斷被稀釋。中國流通股佔股市總股本的比重已從10年前的約30%增至70%。

"The objective in establishing the stock market was to give state-owned companies a way to escape their difficulties. It was only after the late 1990s that thought was given to protecting investors' interests, and this transformation is not yet complete," says Zhao Xijun, a professor at People's University.

中國人民大學(People's University)教授趙錫軍表示：“（最早）建立股市是爲了給國有企業脫困服務。上世紀90年代後期才提出來要保護投資者的利益（等理念）。這些理念的改革現在還沒有到位。”

The second factor, as in other developing countries, is the market's legal and political backdrop. This is much harder to change. The corrosive influence of insider trading was highlighted in a 2002 study of China's stock market by Dow Jones Indexes. It showed that the vast bulk of the gains over the previous decade had occurred on 10 specific trading days when stocks jumped.

第二個原因（如在其他發展中國家一樣）是市場的法律和政治背景。改變這個因素的難度要大得多。從道瓊斯指數(Dow Jones Indexes)2002年一項對中國股市的研究中可以明顯看出，內幕交易會腐蝕市場。該研究顯示，之前10年中大部分獲利是在股價上漲的10個特定交易日內發生的。

The inference was that only investors who possessed critical information – often linked to state policy announcements – were able to make money. Everyone else was just along for the ride. Although China has taken steps to clean up its markets since then, insider trading remains pervasive. Mr Guo has launched yet another crackdown.

由此可以推出，只有獲知關鍵信息（通常與政府即將宣佈的某項政策有關）的投資者能夠獲利。其他所有人都只是在碰運氣。儘管自那以後中國已採取措施清理市場，但內幕交易仍十分普遍。郭樹清已發起一輪新的治市活動。

Investors are by now familiar with the immaturity and the insider trading in the Chinese market. After the disappointing performance of the past decade, it is clear that negatives are more fully priced in. The ratio of Chinese share prices to last year's earnings is near a historic low at 14.7, about the same as in the US.

投資者如今已對中國股市的不成熟和內幕交易習以爲常了。經過過去十年差強人意的表現，如今的股市顯然已更多地體現了各種負面因素。中國股市市盈率（按去年利潤計算）現爲14.7，已接近歷史最低點，約與美國的水平一致。

As Mr Guo continues his reform drive – bringing more institutional money into the market, adjusting the IPO pricing system, implementing easier delisting rules and more – the maturation of the Chinese stock market could be argued to be accelerating.

在郭樹清繼續推進股市改革之際，中國股市趨於成熟的速度可以說在加快。郭樹清的改革措施包括：向股市引入更多機構資金，調整IPO的定價體制，改變規則、降低上市公司退市的難度，等等。

Geoff Lewis, head of investment services with JPMorgan Asset Management in Hong Kong, says Chinese shares are approaching a point where they can be assessed like those in other markets.

駐香港的摩根大通資產管理(JPMorgan Asset Management)投資服務負責人傑夫?劉易斯(Geoff Lewis)表示，中國股市的可評估程度正在趨近於其他股市。

"Your view on China should be whether you think it will be a soft landing or a hard landing. I don't think it should be related to structural overhangs or market imperfections," he says. If economic performance does start determining investment performance, it would indeed be a new departure for Chinese stocks.

劉易斯表示：“你對中國的看法應該取決於你認爲中國經濟會軟着陸還是會硬着陸。我認爲結構性威脅或市場失靈的因素不應影響你對中國的看法。”如果經濟的表現真的開始決定投資業績，中國股市將真正展開一段新的旅程。

Additional reporting by Emma Dong

董慧(Emma Dong)補充報道 譯者:何黎