關注社會:"市場寵兒" 越南風光不再

Until a few years ago, Vietnam was one of the world's hottest emerging markets. Now it faces an urgent task: fix a beleaguered banking system or watch its economy continue to slip behind faster-growing neighbors.

直到幾年前，越南還一直是全球最熱門的新興市場之一。如今，越南面臨着一個緊迫的任務：修復滿目瘡痍的銀行體系，否則就只能眼睜睜看着經濟繼續下滑，落後於經濟增長越來越快的鄰國。

Piles of bad loans following the financial crisis have dragged down growth in Vietnam and left banks weakened and reluctant to lend.

金融危機過後堆積如山的壞賬拖累了越南的經濟增長，導致越南的銀行體系被削弱，不願意放貸。

The government recently acknowledged that nonperforming loans-many made to inefficient state-owned companies-could be as high as 10% of the banking system, substantially higher than reported by individual banks. Fitch Ratings analysts think the number is as high as 15%.

越南政府近期承認，銀行體系當前的壞賬水平可能高達10%（其中的大量壞賬來自運營不善的國有企業欠下的貸款），這一比例遠遠高於個別銀行錄得的數據。惠譽國際評級(Fitch Ratings)的分析師認爲，這一比例實際上可能高達15%。

A record number of firms are declaring bankruptcy, and in the sprawling urban areas encompassing Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, the landscape is littered with stalled construction projects as builders run out of cash or put on the brakes as demand for condominiums and office space dries up.

宣佈破產的公司數量創下新高。在包括河內和胡志明市在內的大片城市地區，到處都是已經停工的建築工地，原因可能是建築商缺少資金，或是對公寓樓和辦公樓的需求枯竭讓他們踩了急剎車。

Vietnam fought off rumors in recent days that it was seeking an International Monetary Fund bailout for its banking system. An IMF spokeswoman said no requests for aid had been made. State Bank of Vietnam Deputy Gov. Le Minh Hung said in a statement on the government's website that the country had no intention of seeking a rescue.

越南最近駁斥了有關該國正在尋求國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund, 簡稱:IMF)救助其銀行體系的傳言。IMF的一名發言人說，越南沒有提出援助請求。越南央行(State Bank of Vietnam)副行長黎明興(Le Minh Hung)在政府網站上的一份聲明中說，越南沒有尋求救助的意向。

However, the IMF and others have been advising Vietnam on how to implement a domestically financed bailout that would restore its banks to health. In its latest economic review the fund said that 'quick and comprehensive action' was needed to solidify weak banks and put the economy on more solid ground.

不過，IMF和其他組織過去一直在就如何實施一項國內出資的救助計劃向越南提供建議，該救助計劃旨在使銀行恢復健康。IMF在最近的一份經濟評估中說，越南需要採取快速和全面的行動加固脆弱的銀行體系，鞏固經濟基礎。

Fears over Vietnam's banks intensified in August when one of the country's most prominent tycoons, Nguyen Duc Kien, was arrested for allegedly improperly lending money to real-estate projects. Efforts to reach Mr. Kien, who now runs a number of private investment funds and owns Hanoi's main professional soccer club, have been unsuccessful. Stocks dropped in the days following the arrest, and the Ho Chi Minh Stock Index is down 18% since the beginning of May.

今年8月，越南最赫赫有名的大亨阮德堅(Nguyen Duc Kien)由於被指通過不正當方式向房地產項目貸款而被逮捕，這加劇了外界對越南銀行業的擔憂。阮德堅目前經營着幾隻私人投資基金，擁有河內一家大型的職業足球俱樂部。記者試圖聯繫阮德堅置評，但沒有成功。在阮德堅被逮捕之後的幾天，越南的股市出現下跌，自5月初以來，胡志明股指(Ho Chi Minh Stock Index)已經下跌18%。

Vietnam shares fell 2.2% Monday, led by selling in property-related stocks after state media reports suggested real-estate developers are trying to cut prices to boost sales of apartments.

越南股市週一下跌了2.2%，這主要是房地產股的拋售引發的。此前，越南國有媒體報道暗示說，房地產開發商正在試圖降價以提振公寓銷售。

Economists warn that Vietnam has entered a dangerous cycle where banks, saddled with bad debts, are unwilling to lend, making it harder for businesses to invest. That feeds into slower growth, which in turn makes it harder for companies to pay back loans, again harming the banks.

經濟學家警告說，越南已經進入了一個危險的循環，銀行被壞賬拖累不願放貸，導致企業投資更加困難，這助長了經濟放緩的趨勢，反過來讓企業更加難以償還貸款，從而又使銀行收到傷害。

The result is that Vietnam's economy is likely to grow below its potential for years to come, unless stronger steps are taken to clean up the banks, economists say.

經濟學家說，結果是，未來幾年越南的經濟增長可能要在潛在趨勢水平以下運行，除非採取更強有力的措施對銀行進行清理。

'I don't think there's any quick fix to a problem like this, as you see in the West. It takes time to work through a solution' to a banking crisis, says Gareth Leather, an economist at Capital Economics. He figures Vietnam's economy will grow at closer to a 5% rate in coming years than the 8% the country enjoyed through much of the previous decade. Although higher than growth rates in the West, 5% is considered slow for a developing Asian country like Vietnam and might not be fast enough to generate sufficient jobs to keep its growing population employed.

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的經濟學家萊瑟(Gareth Leather)說，我不認爲解決這樣的問題存在捷徑，我們在西方的所見所聞已經證明了這一點；找到解決銀行危機的解決方案需要時間。他認爲，越南經濟未來幾年將會以5%左右的速度增長，過去10年大部分時間裏8%的經濟增速已經一去不復返了。儘管仍然高於西方的經濟增速，對於越南這樣的亞洲發展中國家來說，5%是比較慢的，可能無法制造足夠的就業機會來滿足日益增長的人口的需求。

The government this month revised its forecast for 2012 growth down to 5.2% from 6% previously.

本月，越南政府把2012年的增長預期從之前的6%下調到了5.2%。

Vietnam's leaders have acknowledged that a fix is needed. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung in March approved a three-year restructuring plan for the banking sector designed to strengthen the country's largest banks and encourage a series of mergers among smaller lenders, but officials appear uncertain about how to put the blueprint into effect.

越南領導人已經承認，需要找到一個解決辦法。越南總理阮晉勇(Nguyen Tan Dung)今年3月通過了一項針對銀行體系的三年重組計劃，目的是增強越南大型銀行的實力，鼓勵小銀行之間的併購，但是越南官員似乎並不清楚如何實施這一計劃。

Plans to launch a 'bad bank' to buy up distressed assets have been discussed, but a foreign investor familiar with government discussions say implementing such a solution is being delayed by Hanoi's lack of expertise in managing a modern banking system.

越南已經討論了推出一個“壞賬銀行”購買不良資產的方案，但是熟悉政府討論的一名外國投資者說，由於越南政府缺乏管理現代銀行體系的專業知識，實施這樣一個解決方案的時機正在被延誤。