關注社會:中國通脹溯源

通貨膨脹已成爲當下中國的首要話題之一，也幾乎人人都能給出一番解釋，例如貨幣超發、“輸入性通脹”、“結構性通脹”等等。但6月10日，在青島舉辦的國際金融高峯論壇上，北京大學國家發展研究院院長周其仁教授，卻對中國通脹成因做了一番別有新意的解讀。
Inflation has become one of the focal topics in China recently. Almost everyone has his or her own say on this issue such as excess currency issuance, “imported inflation”, “structural inflation”, etc. But in the Qingdao InterNational Finance Forum held on June 10th, Zhou Qiren, the dean and professor of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, made some innovative interpretations on the causes of the inflation.

周其仁認爲，可通過兩個角度認識通脹，一個是物價角度，一個是貨幣角度。物價角度觀察通脹，只能看到現象，最終找不到根源和解決辦法，相應地，如果以管控物價作爲應對通脹的措施，最後不但不會實現效果，還會顧此失彼。他引用已故美國經濟學家米爾頓?弗裏德曼的話說，通脹是一種貨幣現象，應該從貨幣的角度來認識，也應通過貨幣的途經解決。
Zhou believes that inflation can be interpreted from two perspectives: one is price of goods, and the other currency. From the perspective of price of goods, we can only see it increasing nonstop and can barely work out the root causes and practical solutions. Accordingly, if we take price control measures to counter inflation, we may not only fail to achieve expected results, but also stir other well-ongoing plans. He quoted the late U.S. economist Milton ? Friedman’s words: Inflation is a monetary phenomenon and should be viewed not only from the perspective of the currency itself, but also from the perspective of its passing courses.

也許是因爲別國經驗過於遙遠，周其仁直接用中國經驗做例證——20世紀60年代初陳雲治理通脹的歷史。當時受“大躍進”影響，中國貨幣投放過多，陳雲的解決辦法是以“伊拉克蜜棗”、高檔糖等商品供應市場，回收過量貨幣，解決通脹。“這說明，不論是什麼制度，貨幣和物價的聯繫是很穩定的，這爲我們今天如何處理通脹提供了思路，”周其仁說。
Perhaps because other countries’ experience is not well known to our nationals, Zhou referred to China’s experience as an illustration—the counter-inflation history by Chen Yun in the early 1960s. Impacted by the “Great Leap Forward” (A cultural and economic revolution in China), Chinese government generated hugely excess currency into the market. What Chen Yun did with the problem was to supply “Iraq dates” and high-end sugars in the market and recycled the excess currency and tackled the inflation problem. Zhou said, “This has demonstrated that no matter what system we have adopted, either capitalism or socialism, the link between currency and prices of goods is very stable, which provides us with the idea to combat inflation today.”

那麼，央行爲什麼、在什麼情況下會多發貨幣呢？周其仁認爲，在1995年《中國人民銀行法》通過前，央行超發貨幣的主要原因，就是央行常常被迫向財政透支。1995年，朱鎔基進行整頓，再也不允許通過基礎貨幣供應來解決財政不足問題，中國貨幣才走向穩定。
So why or under what circumstances will the Chinese Central Bank issue more currency? In Zhou’s view, before the passage of the Law of People’s Bank of China” in 1995, the major reason for the central bank to issue excess currency was that the central bank often ran fiscal deficit. In 1995, Zhu Rongji (former premier of the State Council of China) rectified the mechanism and forbade solving the financial shortage by issuing excess base currency. Since then, Chinese currency embarked on a steady track.

但隨着中國經濟的發展，老問題解決了，新問題又來。對外開放後，中國利用勞動力和資源成本低的優勢，大量出口，中國要利用這個優勢，保持出口導向政策，就希望保持人民幣匯率穩定。但如何在匯率穩定的同時保持人民幣幣值的穩定？“這兩年的挑戰和衝突就是這麼來的，”周其仁說。
However, with the development of Chinese economy, while the old problem has been addressed, new problems are coming ahead. After the opening-up, China took advantage of its cheap labor and resources cost to increase its exportation dramatically and kept the export-oriented policy all the way so as to maintain the stability of its currency. But how can we maintain the stability of the exchange rate of our currency while keeping its value stable? “All challenges and conflicts came from this issue.” Zhou said.

要保持匯率穩定，央行就不得不動用基礎貨幣來干預外匯。“在某種程度上，匯率制度變成了中國的發鈔制度，”周其仁說。正是由於這個理由，他將演講的標題定爲《貨幣是一種制度安排》。因爲制度性原因，央行不得不以基礎貨幣來維持匯率穩定，於是通脹就無法避免。而要解決這個問題，不是要讓人民幣大幅升值，而是要改制度。周其仁認爲，本質上是要通過財政解決，“把真金白銀放進去”，而不要用基礎貨幣。
To maintain the exchange rate stability, the central bank would have to use base money to intervene in the foreign exchange. “To some extent, the exchange rate system has become a note-issuing system in China.” Zhou said. It is for this reason that Zhou made the title of his speech as Money Is a System Arrangement. Out of institutional reasons, the central bank has to utilize base money to keep exchange rate stability and inflation, therefore, is inevitable. In Zhou’s view, inflation can be fundamentally tackled by fiscal means and we should “put real money in the market”, not base money.

周其仁說，“人民幣幣值穩定和人民幣匯率穩定之間，如何做好權衡，希望能在‘十二五’期間解決此問題，解決方式可以漸進，但一定要解決，因爲幣值對所有人都有影響。”他還略帶諷刺地說，解決方法之一是財政發行“穩定匯率債”，“尤其要讓那些反對人民幣升值的人多買”。
Zhou said, “How to strike a balance between the stability of RMB value and that of its foreign exchange rate should hopefully be settled during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”. It can be tackled in a gradual process but should for sure be tackled because it has a great impact on all the people in our country.” He also said in a bit ironical way that one of the solutions is to issue “debts of stable exchange rate” for people, “particularly for those who oppose the appreciation of RMB”.

在周之前的演講中，國務院發展研究中心金融研究所所長夏斌也提到，匯率已經成爲中國經濟許多矛盾的一個集中點。而周其仁邏輯嚴密的推理，則引出一個重要的問題：如果政府的兩個目標（促進出口和抑制通脹）的實現手段發生衝突，應該如何抉擇，應當將哪些利益、或者哪些羣體的利益置於優先考慮地位？這是周其仁的演講帶給聽衆的最大思考，或許也值得決策者深思。
Before Zhou’s speech, Xia Bin, director of the Finance Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, had mentioned that exchange rate had become the spotlight for many economic conflicts in China. Zhou’s logical reasoning has raised an important issue: If the government’s two goals (export promotion and inflation curb) are contradictory, how can we make a choice? What aspects or whose benefits should be put in priority? That is the biggest problem we need to think about from Zhou’s speech. It may also merit the decision makers’attention.

（原文: 選自<<金融時報>>中文版 譯者: 愛爾蘭都柏林大學 賴小琪）