知情人士透露 中國工行拒絕爲理財產品兜底

China’s huge shadow banking sector is facing its toughest test after ICBC, the world’s biggest bank by assets, whose branches sell many of these wealth products, refused to bail out investors in a dud $500m issue.

中國龐大的影子銀行業面臨着最嚴峻的考驗。此前，中國工商銀行(ICBC)拒絕爲一隻陷入困境的5億美元信託的投資者兜底。工行是全球資產規模最大的銀行，該行的分行銷售許多此類理財產品。

The enormous growth of poorly regulated financing outside the formal banking sector in China and the potential for a panicked run on these shadowy products and institutions pose one of the biggest risks to the global economy this year.

中國正規銀行部門以外監管薄弱的融資的巨大增長，以及投資者在恐慌之下逃離影子產品和影子機構的潛在可能性，構成今年全球經濟的最大風險之一。

Shadow banking worries extend far beyond China. Paul Tucker, a former Bank of England deputy governor, said yesterday that global regulators were struggling to keep up with the pace of change in the “shape-shifting” non-bank sector. He warned of “faltering vigour” in oversight of markets.

對影子銀行感到擔憂的絕不止是中國。英國央行(Bank of England)前副行長保羅•塔克(Paul Tucker)昨日表示，全球監管機構難以跟上“不斷變形的”非銀行部門的變化步伐。他警告稱，有關當局對市場的監督“力度在減弱”。

In China, investment trusts and other wealth management products have become a vital source of off-balance sheet funding, and account for almost a third of credit in the world’s second-largest economy, up from less than a quarter in 2012. Many have warned of the systemic risks posed by these products, including China’s state council or cabinet.

在中國，投資信託及其他理財產品已成爲表外融資的重要來源，幾乎佔全球第二大經濟體信貸總量的三分之一，遠高於2012年的不到四分之一。包括中國國務院在內的許多方面都已經對此類產品構成的系統性風險發出了警告。

The funds are often invested in more troubled sectors of China’s economy and they have been snapped up by retail investors seeking better returns than those afforded by bank savings.

這些基金往往投資於中國經濟中麻煩較多的部門，而散戶投資者爲了得到高於銀行存款利息的回報，對此類產品趨之若鶩。

Most wealth management products are sold with some form of bank guarantee, leading many investors to believe that the products are in effect risk-free, despite the often high promised yield.

多數理財產品在銷售時都有某種形式的銀行擔保，導致許多投資者以爲這些產品實際上是無風險的，儘管其承諾的收益率往往較高。

But, in an unprecedented move, ICBC said it would not stand behind the Rmb3bn ($495m) investment product it distributed through its branches in 2010, according to people familiar with the situation. The fund matures at the end of this month.

但據知情人士透露，近日發生一件空前的事：工行表示，該行不會爲其分行在2010年經銷的一隻30億元人民幣（合4.95億美元）的投資產品兜底。這隻基金將在本月底到期。

Zhang Zhiwei, China economist at Nomura, said a default in the shadow banking sector could trigger a ripple effect across the financial system.

野村(Nomura)的中國經濟學家張智威表示，影子銀行業發生違約，可能引發波及整個金融體系的連鎖反應。

“In the past we’ve had several examples of trust companies bailing out investors. I don’t think we’ve had a situation where investors have lost money,” said Mr Zhang. “I think it’s going to change the expectations for some investors for the potential credit risk, and have some risks for the rolling over of a lot of these trust products.”

“以往我們看到過若干信託公司對投資者剛性兌付的例子。我不記得有投資者賠錢的先例。”張智威表示，“我認爲這將改變一些投資者對潛在信貸風險的預期，並給很多此類信託產品的滾轉帶來一些風險。”

In a paper published by the Brookings Institution, Mr Tucker said regulators needed to display greater flexibility to cope with “endemic regulatory arbitrage and the shape-shifting dynamic of finance”, pointing to problems in both advanced and emerging market economies.

塔克在布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)發表的一篇論文中表示，監管機構需要展現出更大的靈活性，以應對“當前盛行的監管套利和不斷變形的金融業格局”。他指出，發達經濟體和新興市場經濟體都存在問題。

Globally, shadow banking is worth $71.2tn according to the Financial Stability Board, with its estimate of China’s sector exceeding $2.1tn.

根據金融穩定委員會(Financial Stability Board)的數據，全球影子銀行業的價值達到71.2萬億美元，其中中國影子銀行業的價值估計超過2.1萬億美元。

The product that ICBC is refusing to guarantee offered investors a 10 per cent yield, compared with the benchmark deposit rate of just 3 per cent.

工行拒絕兜底的那隻產品當初向投資者提供10%的收益率，相比之下，基準存款利率只有3%。