理財產品威脅中國金融體系 缺乏監管不透明

SHANGHAI — The deal could be hard to resist.

上海——這也許是一樁令人難以拒絕的買賣。

A Shanghai investment firm is offering a fat return of up to 10 percent a year, handily beating both the local stock market and the paltry payouts from bank accounts. It requires a minimum deposit of about $15, making it accessible to just about anyone. Investors can pull out in as little as seven days. Best of all, the money is guaranteed.

上海一家投資公司在提供每年最高可達10%的豐厚回報，遠遠高於當地股票市場的收益或銀行賬戶微不足道的利息。最低只需要存入約100元現金，這讓幾乎任何人都能參與投資。投資者最短七天後就可撤資。最重要的是，這個投資是有保障的。

There is just one catch: Investors know surprisingly little about what they are buying.

只是有一個詭異之處：投資者們對他們所購產品的瞭解驚人得少。

The firm, State Gold Treasure, said the money would be plowed into a real estate company building a luxury serviced-apartment complex here in Shanghai. But it will not release details, including the complex’s address.

這家名叫“國金寶”(State Gold Treasure)的公司說，錢將投給在上海建設一個豪華服務式公寓羣的房地產公司。但國金寶沒有給出更多的細節，比如該公寓羣的地址。

The offering is just one of a spate of barely regulated, highly opaque investments that are posing a growing threat to the Chinese financial system. As the country’s economy slows, experts increasingly worry that many of the investment funds could fail — and the government may not know how to handle the shock to its financial system.

這家公司的產品只是一批幾乎無監管且高度不透明的投資產品之一，這些投資產品正在給中國金融體系帶來日益嚴重的威脅。隨着中國的經濟增長放緩，專家們越來越多地擔心，許多這類投資基金可能會失敗，而政府可能不知道如何應對其金融體系所面臨的衝擊。

Over the last five years, Chinese investors have plowed at least $2.8 trillion into buying such funds from banks alone. After quintupling since 2011, these investments, known as wealth management products, now total an amount roughly equal to more than one-third of the country’s annual economic output. Their growth has increased as China’s economy has slowed.

在過去的五年中，中國的投資者僅從銀行購買的這類投資產品就已至少達到2.8萬億美元。這些被稱爲理財產品的投資自2011年以來已經翻了五番，目前的累計金額大致相當於中國年度經濟總產值的三分之一以上。隨着中國經濟增長的放緩，理財產品的增長率反而在增加。

That is just the funds distributed by banks. Reliable data on wealth management products sold by other types of firms, like State Gold Treasure, is hard to come by.

這僅僅是銀行發行的理財產品。很難得到像國金寶這樣的其他類型企業銷售的理財產品的可靠數據。

The problem for China is that a big chunk of the money is going into troubled industries like construction and real estate. Further slowdowns in those areas could result in major blowups.

中國的問題是，這些錢中有很大一部分正在流入面臨困難的行業，比如建築和房地產業。這些行業的進一步放緩可能會導致危機的爆發。

Banks also increasingly use the funds to raise money, instead of more stable deposits. The extra investment cash allows banks to make loans at a much faster clip than their deposits alone would allow. But if investors suddenly demanded their money back, banks could be in a financial bind.

銀行也越來越多地用這些產品來籌集資金，而不是用更穩定的存款。銀行可以用投資產品帶來的額外現金以更快的速度發放貸款，比僅靠銀行存款所允許的要快。但是，如果投資者突然要求撤資的話，銀行可能會陷入金融困境。

The Chinese government so far has stepped in to stop big meltdowns of wealth management products, to avert ripple effects and forestall investor anger. But not all investors have been spared.

中國政府迄今已幾次插手阻止理財產品的大崩潰，避免連鎖反應，預先防止投資者憤怒的爆發。但是，並非所有投資者都這麼幸運。

Li Wenyuan, a doctor in Beijing, says she invested almost $140,000 last year in a wealth management product linked to a steel company. After the company ran into difficulty, she was repaid less than $2,000. She had planned to use the entire original amount to send her son to a high school in Canada, where the air is cleaner and he would have a chance to improve his English.

北京的醫生李文媛（音）說，她去年投資了約100萬元人民幣，購買了一個與一家鋼鐵公司有關的理財產品。該公司遇到困難後，退給她的錢還不到1.5萬元。她曾打算把整筆原始投資用於送兒子到加拿大讀高中，那裏的空氣更乾淨，兒子也會有機會提高自己的英語水平。

“It’s quite a big loss for my family,” she said. “We are still able to provide for ourselves. Still, it’s a lot of money and I doubt I will ever get it back. I am worried.”

“對我的家庭來說，這是一筆相當大的損失，”她說。“我們還能養活自己。但那是一大筆錢，我懷疑我永遠也收不回那筆錢了。我很擔心。”

Wealth management products are part of a huge but shadowy system of unregulated investments and underground banks that many Chinese people depend on for the loans that keep their businesses humming. Increasingly, the debate inside and outside China is focusing on what will happen if that system falls apart — and how quickly the government might be able to respond.

理財產品是不受監管的投資和地下錢莊形成的巨大影子系統的一部分，許多中國人靠影子銀行獲得維持其商業運行的貸款。中國境內外爭論的焦點越來越多地是關於，如果這個影子系統崩毀的話，會發生什麼，以及政府可能有能力做出反應的速度有多快。

“There is a risk building up in this regard, and on top of that, the tricky issue is that there are many triggers that could wake up this sleeping lion,” said David Daokui Li, a prominent Tsinghua University economist who is a member of the Chinese central bank’s monetary policy committee. “Most likely, this issue will emerge as a crisis. The question is whether it is a small crisis or a big crisis.”

“這方面有一個風險積累，在此之上的一個棘手問題是，有很多喚醒這個睡獅的可能觸發點，”清華大學的著名經濟學家李稻葵說，他也是中國央行貨幣政策委員會的委員。“最有可能的是，這個問題將以危機的形式出現。目前的問題是，是一個小危機、還是一個大危機。”

China’s wealth management products are neither stocks nor bonds nor mutual funds. A typical wealth management product offers a fixed rate of return over a set period. Many Chinese investors treat them like bank savings deposits because many are sold by state-controlled banks that give the funds the appearance of government backing.

中國的理財產品既不是股票，也不是債券，也不是共同基金。典型的理財產品在覈算期內爲投資者提供某種固定的收益。許多中國投資者把理財產品當成銀行儲蓄存款，因爲很多這類產品是由國家控制的銀行出售的，讓它們看似背後有政府支持。

But unlike bank deposits, they are uninsured. They are also typically structured so that the banks are not responsible if the investments fail. Among the biggest issuers of wealth management products are hundreds of banks and other financial institutions in poor, inland provinces. These banks are under intense pressure from provincial political bosses to keep lending and help sustain big employers like state-owned enterprises, at a time when the entire country’s economy is slowing.

但是，與銀行存款不同，理財產品沒有保險。理財產品通常的結構是，如果投資失敗，銀行並不承擔任何責任。理財產品最大的發行者是貧窮的內陸省份的上百家銀行和其他金融機構。來自省級政治領導的強大壓力，迫使這些銀行不停地發放貸款，以在整個國家的經濟增長放緩時，幫助維持國有企業這樣的大僱主。

To raise money for large-scale lending, banks have ramped up issuance. They sold 187,000 separate wealth management products by the end of last year, up 56 percent from a year earlier, according to official statistics.

爲進行大規模借貸籌集資金，銀行加大了理財產品的發行規模。據官方統計，截至去年底，銀行出售的理財產品達18.7萬種，比上年同期增長了56%。

Technology has made it easier for firms other than banks, like State Gold Treasure, to sell the products online and through smartphone apps. “In the past, you’d need to go to the bank to open an account or open an account at a certain fund company,” said He Zhirui, a finance company worker in Beijing who also invests in wealth management products. “Now, with the apps, you can simply upload your personal ID and purchase wealth management products right away online.”

技術讓國金寶這樣的非銀行企業在網上、或通過智能手機應用程序來銷售理財產品變得更容易。“在過去，你需要去銀行或一家基金公司開個賬戶，”北京一家金融公司的工作人員何智睿（音）說，他也投資理財產品。“現在，你可以通過手機應用程序，只要上傳一下自己的身份證，就能在網上購買理財產品了。”

State Gold Treasure, known as Guojinbao in Chinese, has its wood-paneled offices on the 71st floor of the gleaming Shanghai World Financial Center, which has a large statue of a Chinese god of wealth in the lobby. On its website, the company says investors are protected by a “seven-layer guarantee mechanism” and promises that all investments will be repaid in full.

用木材精裝修的國金寶辦公室，位於光彩奪目的上海環球金融中心的71層，上海環球金融中心的大廳裏有一個大型的財神塑像。在國金寶的網站上，公司說投資者享有“7維安全保障”，還保證投資項目100%兌付。

But the fund does not say who is guaranteeing the funds. The company declined interview requests and to make officials available for comment during a visit to its offices.

但投資產品並沒有說明誰爲資金提供擔保。公司拒絕接受採訪，也沒有讓公司領導與前往其辦公室的記者見面，就公司事宜發表評論。

The proliferation of wealth management products has drawn concern from regulators. In May, China’s banking commission warned that the business was plagued with problems, including unauthorized products.

理財產品的激增已經引起了監管部門的關注。今年5月，中國銀監會曾警告說，理財產品存在很多問題，包括未經授權的產品。

Regulators are also considering new oversight rules. The goal, the commission said in response to questions, was to “facilitate a standards-based, healthy and sustainable development” and to “prevent risks.”

監管機構也正在考慮出臺新的規則。銀監會在回答有關問題時表示，新規則的目的是“促進規範、健康且可持續的發展”，同時要“防止風險”。

The shift in money away from bank deposits leaves China’s financial system on less solid footing. China withstood the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and 1998 and the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 in part because its financial system depended on highly stable household and corporate deposits parked mainly at four huge, government-controlled banks.

資金從銀行儲蓄中轉移，令中國的金融系統根基相對不穩。中國之所以能經受住1997-1998年的亞洲金融危機和2008-2009年的全球金融危機，部分原因就在於它的金融系統依賴高度穩定的家庭和企業儲蓄，而且這些資金主要集中於由政府控制的四大銀行。

But smaller banks combined are now almost as large as the four main banks combined. Wealth management products account for up to a third of money raised at many midsize and smaller banks.

不過，現在規模更小的銀行加在一起，資金規模幾乎與四大銀行相當。在許多中小銀行，理財產品可佔到所吸納資金的三分之一。

Mr. Li, the central bank adviser, and other officials and economists say the Chinese government has the resources to cover big losses if wealth management products fail. They also say China’s increasingly tough enforcement of limits on sending money abroad will ensure that enough cash remains in the country in the event of a big failure.

央行顧問李稻葵及其他一些官員和經濟學家稱，中國政府有資源，可以彌補一旦理財產品投資失敗帶來的損失。他們還表示，中國限制資金外流的力度越來越大，就算出現更大的問題，也將能確保國內有足夠的資金。

“With the Chinese system, it’s easier to deal with a liquidity issue — the money can’t go out,” said Chang Chun, the executive dean of the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance at Shanghai Jiao Tong University.

“在中國的制度之下，更容易應對流動性問題——資金出不去，”上海交通大學高級金融學院執行院長張春說。

But some specialists in Chinese finance say that serious problems could appear faster than expected. They could also lurk in unexpected corners unnoticed by Chinese regulators, much less international investors.

不過，一些研究中國金融的專家表示，嚴重的問題可能會比預期來得更快。它們也可能潛伏在讓人意想不到的角落，連中國監管機構都沒有注意到，更不用說國際投資者。

“It’s going to happen,” said Christopher Balding, an associate professor of finance at the HSBC Business School at the Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, “when a firm goes bust that you’ve never heard of, or in a city you’ve never heard of.”

“會發生的，”北京大學深圳研究生院匯豐商學院金融副教授克里斯托弗•鮑爾丁(Christopher Balding)說，“會有你沒聽到過的公司破產，或者發生在你沒聽說過的城市。”