從國慶旅遊數據看中國真正的消費狀況
Scenic spots around China are reportedly mobbed with visitors during a long national holiday this week, which has many ordinary Chinese frustrated. But this is actually an encouraging sign for the country's economy.
據報道，在本週的“十一”長假期間，中國各地的旅遊景點都人滿爲患，令很多普通百姓感到煩惱。但這對中國的經濟來說實際上卻是一個鼓舞人心的跡象。
The total number of people arriving at major tourist sites in China over the first two days of the 'National Day' holiday is up 18.8% from last year. That represents a slight slowdown from 21% growth during the holiday week last year. But it compares favorably with an 8.8% rise in 2011 and just 6.5% in 2010, according to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist Lu ce France-Presse/Getty Images
2013年10月3日，大批遊客涌入天安門廣場。今年“十一”長假的前兩天，中國主要旅遊景點遊客數量較上年同期增長18.8%，略低於去年“十一”長假期間21%的增幅。但據美銀美林(Bank of America-Merrill Lynch)經濟學家陸挺說，今年的增幅高於2011年的8.8%和2010年的6.5%。
Other data tell a similar story. On Oct. 1, the first day of the holiday, Chinese railroads carried 10.3 million passengers. That's up 13.2% from a year earlier, according to government figures.
其他數據也顯示了類似的狀況。10月1日，也就是“十一”長假的第一天，中國鐵路客運量達1,030萬人次。據政府數據顯示，這較上年同期增長了13.2%。
Unfortunately, like those scenic spots, investments on the Chinese travel theme have become crowded. Shares in travel-booking site International, for instance, have more than doubled this year and now trade at more than 63 times this year's expected earnings, according to FactSet.
遺憾的是，和旅遊景點一樣，對中國旅遊類股的投資也人滿爲患。舉例來講，據FactSet說，旅行預訂網站攜程旅行網( International)今年以來股價上漲了一倍以上，目前（根據今年的預期每股收益計算的）市盈率超過63倍。
But investors should still cheer the strong tourist data, because it signals that Chinese consumers are very much alive and kicking.但投資者仍應該對強勁的旅遊數據感到高興，因爲它顯示出中國消費者非常活躍。
As a proxy for consumer activity, the tourist figures may be superior to official retail sales figures. The National Bureau of Statistics tabulate the latter and these government statisticians exclude all kinds of consumer services, from travel to haircuts, while including some government purchases. Retail sales in the first eight months of 2013 increased 12.8% year on year.
作爲衡量消費活動的一個指標，旅遊數據可能優於官方發佈的零售額數據。零售額數據由中國國家統計局發佈，政府統計人員剔除了各種消費服務（從旅遊到理髮）的數據，而將一些政府採購包括在內。2013年前八個月的零售額較上年同期增長了12.8%。
What's more, because many purchases in China are made in cash and off the books, many economists believe that consumption is severely under-counted in official estimates. In a recent report, Standard Chartered cited work by professors at two universities in Shanghai, who estimated that in 2009 household consumption was close to 50% of the economy, compared to the NBS estimate of just 35.3%.
此外，由於中國很多采購是用現金付款，不計入表內，很多經濟學家認爲消費在官方估計的數據中被嚴重低估。渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)最近在一份報告中引用了上海兩所大學的教授的研究，這些教授估計，2009年中國家庭消費接近經濟總量的50%。相比之下，國家統計局給出的估計數據只有35.3%。
Not all economists would put the true consumption figure quite so high, though most agree the official figures are significantly understated.
並非所有的經濟學家都認爲真正的消費數據會有這麼高，不過大部分人都認爲官方數據存在嚴重低估。
For years, critics have lamented China's slow transition to a consumer-led economic model. This week's strong tourist data is just the latest indication that China is further along on the path to rebalancing than many give it credit for.
多年來，批評人士一直在哀嘆中國向消費拉動型經濟模式的轉變步伐緩慢。本週發佈的強勁旅遊數據只不過再一次顯示，中國在經濟再平衡的道路上走得比許多人認爲的要遠。
