Lex專欄 中國煤炭鋼鐵行業需要猛藥

For the past couple of decades, business professors have spun price deflation as a result of “innovative disruption”. In fact, the old economy — heavy industry — has been slowly killing itself for years.

過去幾十年，商學教授把價格下跌說成是“創新性破壞”(innovative disruption)的結果。事實上，重工業這類傳統經濟產業多年來一直在緩慢地自殺。

Economic slowdown in China has brought the latest example: overcapacity in steelmaking and coal mining depressing prices.

中國經濟放緩就帶來了最新的例子：鍊鋼和採煤行業的產能過剩抑制了價格。

Though the Chinese government understands the problem full well, its latest solution will not work.

儘管中國政府完全明白問題所在，其最新解決方案卻不會產生效果。

China’s coal companies carry a lot of debt; some as much as their entire asset value. The banking regulator, China Banking Regulatory Commission, has had to get involved. To cut banks’ loan exposure to coal (and steel as well), the CBRC reportedly has plans to encourage local governments to aid the most indebted steel and coal companies by participating in debt-for-equity swaps with the banks.

中國煤炭企業揹負大量債務，部分企業的債務已相當於其全部資產價值。中國銀行業監管機構不得不介入。據報道，爲削減銀行對煤炭（及鋼鐵）行業的貸款敞口，中國銀監會(CBRC)已計劃鼓勵地方政府爲債務負擔最重的鋼企和煤企提供援手，參與這些企業與銀行之間的債轉股計劃。

Banks could use the help. In a worst-case scenario, non-performing loans could jump fivefold from the current 1.7 per cent of the total, thinks Credit Suisse. The coal and steel companies are even more needy. Shanghai-listed miners, such as Shanxi Coking Coal, jumped on the reports yesterday.

銀行也許需要這樣的援助。瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)估計，在最糟糕的情況下，中國銀行業的不良貸款率可能會從目前的1.7%躍升四倍。煤企和鋼企就更需要了。昨天報道出來後，滬市礦業股應聲大漲，比如山西焦煤(Shanxi Coking Coal)。

The promise of intervention in the coal and steel industries has coincided with a big rally in the prices of the underlying commodities. Thermal coal prices in China have jumped by nearly a third from the lows late last year. Meanwhile, the proportion of Chinese steel mills losing money has dropped to a fifth; a year ago almost all were in the red. All of this eases the pressure on bloated industries and does nothing to remedy overcapacity. In July steel production continued to rise, and exports are up more than 8 per cent this year.

銀監會承諾干預煤炭和鋼鐵行業之際，大宗商品價格已迎來大幅反彈。中國動力煤價格從去年底的低點上漲了近三分之一。與此同時，中國虧損鍊鋼廠所佔比例也已下滑至五分之一，而一年前幾乎所有鋼廠都虧損。所有這一切減輕了這些臃腫行業的壓力，但對解決過剩產能卻毫無幫助。7月份，中國鋼鐵產量繼續上升，而出口量今年以來上升逾8%。

Finance can provide pain relief but only harsh medicine — shutting uneconomic factories down — can cure. Extending the lives of zombie coal and steel companies will only prolong the “disruption” in these markets.

金融手段能緩解一時之痛，然而要想解決問題，就必須下猛藥關閉經濟效益不好的工廠。延長殭屍煤企和鋼企的壽命，只會延長這些市場上的“破壞”(disruption)。