中國限產讓看跌煤炭者失手

If the first rule of macro trading is “don’t fight the Fed” then the first rule of raw materials must be “don’t fight Beijing”.

如果“不要與美聯儲(Fed)對抗”是宏觀交易的第一準則，那麼原材料市場的第一準則肯定是“不要與中國對抗”。

It is a truth coal traders are discovering after China upended the market with plans to impose a five-day working week in a bid to cut overcapacity.

這是煤炭交易商正在發現的一個真理，此前中國計劃強制執行每週5天工作制以削減過剩產能，此舉顛覆了市場。

Since the policy was announced in March, the price of thermal coal has risen by 20 per cent as Chinese traders have been forced to chase cargoes in the seaborne market or draw down stocks.

自從今年3月中國宣佈這項政策以來，熱煤價格已上漲20%，中國交易商被迫搶購海運市場的貨源或削減庫存。

The rally has wrongfooted many market participants who were betting on another year of falling prices for thermal coal, which is used to generate electricity and is a source of profits for mining houses such as Glencore and Rio Tinto.

煤炭價格上漲令很多市場參與者措手不及，此前他們押注於熱煤價格經歷又一個價格下跌之年。用於發電的熱煤是嘉能可(Glencore)和力拓(Rio Tinto)等礦業公司的利潤來源。

At least one big participant, traders say, has been caught on the wrong side of a major position that was designed to protect against falling prices. Beijing’s directive has also turned on its head the widely held view that Chinese imports of thermal coal would dwindle from the 140m tonnes purchased last year.

交易商表示，至少有一家大型參與者在旨在對衝價格下跌的大筆交易頭寸上失手。中國的指令還顛覆了這種普遍觀點：中國熱煤進口將低於去年購買的1.40億噸。

“Thermal coal bears, among which we were one of the biggest, have been reminded this year that it is not wise to fight the Chinese government,” says Colin Hamilton, head of commodity research at Macquarie. “As long as China remains a meaningful thermal coal importer, it will act as a price setter.”

“看跌熱煤價格的機構（我們是其中規模最大的機構之一）今年被提醒，與中國政府對抗是不明智的，”麥格理(Macquarie)大宗商品研究主管科林•漢密爾頓(Colin Hamilton)表示，“只要中國仍是重要的熱煤進口國，它就會設定價格。”

For years China has been trying to put coal on a more stable footing, but the latest reforms are some of the first to have an immediate impact on the broader market. Mines normally operate 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

多年來，中國一直試圖提升煤炭市場的穩定程度，但最新改革是對整體市場產生立竿見影效果的首批措施之一。煤礦通常每天24小時、一週七天運營。

The benchmark price for Asia — thermal coal shipped from the Australian port of Newcastle — is up by more than a quarter since its lows in January and now trades above $61 a tonne. Other coal markers have seen similar gains but remain well below their 2008 peaks of nearly $200 a tonne.

亞洲基準價格（從澳大利亞港口紐卡斯爾發運的熱煤價格）較今年1月的低點上漲逾四分之一，如今位於每噸61美元的上方。其他煤炭基準價格出現類似上漲，但仍遠遠低於2008年每噸近200美元的峯值水平。

Analysts estimate domestic production in China was down 10 to 15 per cent in May from a year ago, while latest official data point towards rising imports.

分析師們估計，今年5月中國國內煤炭產量同比下降10%至15%，同時最新官方數據表明進口增加。

“Before China announced its ‘de-capacity’ efforts, we thought seaborne imports would fall to about 110m tonnes [this year]. But now, we think they’ll hold at 140m tonnes or maybe even get a bit higher,” says Andy Roberts, head of thermal coal research at Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy.

諮詢公司Wood Mackenzie熱煤研究部主管安迪•羅伯茨(Andy Roberts)表示：“在中國宣佈‘限產’舉措之前，我們曾認爲，（今年）海運進口將降至1.10億噸左右。但如今，我們認爲，進口量將保持在1.40億噸甚至可能更高一點。”

Analysts say the decline in domestic production has coincided with increased demand in China, as power consumption picks up over the hot summer months. Morgan Stanley reckons coal-fired power production rose 5 per cent month-on-month in June and will rise further through July and August.

分析師們表示，國內產量下滑的同時，中國需求上升，因炎熱的夏季耗電量增加。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)估計，今年6月燃煤發電量環比增長5%，7月和8月將進一步增長。

“The combination of rising demand growth and impaired supply has prompted an inventory drawdown,” says Morgan Stanley analyst Tom Price.

摩根士丹利分析師湯姆•普賴斯(Tom Price)表示：“需求增速加快以及供應受限的雙重作用，已導致庫存下降。”

Globally, thermal coal production has been declining for more than a year as the collapse in prices has forced miners to scrap new projects.

從全球來看，熱煤產量下滑已持續一年多，價格暴跌迫使礦商取消新項目。

But traders who handle millions of tonnes of coal a year say the recovery in prices cannot be solely explained by decisions taken by China. A weaker US dollar and the oil price, which has almost doubled from its January low, have also contributed. Another influence has been the derivatives market.

但每年經手數百萬噸煤炭的交易商表示，中國做出的決定不能完全解釋煤炭價格復甦。美元貶值和油價（較1月低位上漲近一倍）也起到了一定作用。另一個影響因素是衍生品市場。

Traders say a producer had been selling call options to banks in the over-the-counter market. These trades, known as covered positions, were profitable as long as prices kept declining. But that is no longer true. A seller of a call option pockets a premium upfront but delivers an asset at a specified price or time if it is exercised by the holder.

交易商表示，一家生產商曾在場外交易市場向銀行賣出認購期權。這些交易被稱爲抵補頭寸，只要價格一直下跌就能盈利。但現在情況變了。認購期權賣家將在交易之時斬獲一次清償權利金，但在期權持有人行權時須以特定價格或在特定時間交付資產。

Faced with growing losses on the call options as coal prices rallied through June, traders say the producer has been forced to buy futures contracts to hedge its position. But the volume of futures it has been trying to buy has been so big that it has pushed up prices.

隨着整個6月煤炭價格出現上漲，面對日益加劇的認購期權虧損，交易商們表示，這家生產商被迫買入期貨合約以對衝其頭寸。但該生產商試圖購買的期貨合約數量非常大，以至於推高了煤炭價格。

The view in the market is that the call options expire in September and December, one reason traders believe prices might have peaked for 2016.

市場認爲，這些認購期權將在9月和12月到期，這是交易商們認爲2016年煤炭價格可能已經見頂的一個原因。

“We do not expect this China induced tightness to hold beyond the next couple of months,” says Mr Hamilton. Others are not sure. Citigroup says prices could hit $90 a tonne if La Niña brings heavy rain to Australia and Indonesia.

漢密爾頓表示：“我們認爲，中國引發的市場吃緊狀況不會持續到未來兩個月以後。”還有一些人則不那麼確定。花旗集團(Citigroup)表示，如果“拉尼娜”氣候給澳大利亞和印尼帶來強降雨，煤炭價格可能會達到每噸90美元。