中國限煤令遭遇天然氣供應短缺

Gas-supply shortages are hitting north and central China as Beijing tries to accelerate a shift away from coal rather than miss environmental targets this year.

天然氣供應短缺正在影響中國北部和中部地區——中國政府正試圖加速從煤炭轉向其他能源，力求實現今年的環保目標。

The situation has left some residents — mainly poor, urban migrants — without heat as temperatures drop below zero.

這使得一些居民（主要是城市裏的貧困外來人口）在降至零度以下的氣溫中無法取暖。

China’s emissions have fallen in recent years as a slowdown in economic growth hit heavily polluting industries in the north of the country. But an uptick in economic growth rates this year has caused emissions to rebound, forcing the government to double down on measures designed to control pollution from coal use.

近年來中國的排放量有所下降，原因是經濟增長放緩衝擊了中國北方的重污染工業。但今年經濟增長率的提高導致排放量出現反彈，迫使政府加大力度推行旨在控制用煤污染的舉措。

The cutback in coal has created strong demand for liquefied natural gas and pushed LNG prices up by more than 40 per cent as of late November compared with the year before.

削減用煤催生了對液化天然氣(LNG)的強勁需求，導致今年11月底液化天然氣價格比去年同期上漲逾40%。

Coupled with a cold spell over the past week, the shift away from coal has triggered shortages in natural gas supply in Hebei, the industrial province that rings Beijing, and as far south as Zhejiang Province, a centre for light industry in the Yangtze River Delta.

從煤炭轉向其他能源的舉措，再加上過去一週的寒冷天氣，導致從環京工業省份河北到南方輕工業中心浙江等多地出現天然氣供應短缺。

“It’s definitely tight right now,” said Zhou Xizhou, managing director for Asia gas and power at IHS Markit.

IHS Markit亞洲天然氣和電力主管周希舟說：“現在確實很緊張。”

The state planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, has warned local gas companies to “standardise price behaviour”, according to state media.

據中國官方媒體報道，國家發展和改革委員會警告地方天然氣公司“規範價格行爲”。

Mr Zhou said the government had dealt with the “low hanging fruit” of managing large pollution sources such as power plants, but was having a more difficult time addressing diffuse coal use by smaller businesses and residential neighbourhoods. “This winter will be interesting for how severe the impact [of the coal control measures] will be. It will set the course for how they deal with it in the future.”

周希舟表示，政府已經解決了“好摘的果子”，即控制像發電廠這樣的大污染源，但在處理小企業和居民的零散煤炭使用方面，政府面臨更大困難。“今年冬天值得關注，因爲可以看出（控制用煤措施的）衝擊有多嚴重。今年將確定未來應對此問題的路線。”

A plan to address choking and politically unpopular air pollution in northern China involves moving heavy industry away from wealthy and populous cities into the poorer hinterland.

解決中國北方令人窒息、在政治上不得人心的空氣污染的計劃之一，是將重工業從經濟發達和人口密集的城市轉移至經濟欠發達的內陸地區。

Other measures involve switching small businesses off coal-fired boilers and on to the power grid, and converting residential neighbourhoods to gas heat.

其他舉措包括中小企業鍋爐“煤改電”，住宅供暖“煤改氣”。

Beijing has banned the burning of low-quality coal briquettes for residential heating, even as it tears down migrant neighbourhoods in a campaign designed to cap the city’s population.

北京已經禁止居民燒低品質煤塊取暖，同時還爲限制北京人口而拆除外來人口聚居區。

Heating and other residential uses account for about half of the coal used in Beijing and surrounding regions in the winter, when air pollution normally spikes.

取暖和其他居家用途約佔北京及周邊地區冬季煤炭使用量的一半。冬季往往空氣污染最爲嚴重。

Villages in the mountains outside Beijing have been supplied with cleaner-burning coal briquettes but in sprawling urban neighbourhoods, many residents have had to switch to electric space heaters. Some poorer migrants crammed into slums in the outskirts of the city are living with no heat at all.

在北京城外的山村，人們獲得了更清潔的無煙煤供應，但在廣大城市地區，許多居民不得不改用電暖器。擠住在城郊棚戶區的貧窮外來人口甚至在根本無法取暖的條件下生活。

“It’s cold! BRRR!” a migrant cleaning woman surnamed Chen texted from an unheated farmhouse near the Beijing airport, as night-time temperatures plunged well below zero last week. Her landlord began forbidding coal stove-heaters early this year, in line with the new regulations.

在北京機場附近一處沒有供暖的農舍，一位從事清潔工作的陳姓女外來務工人員發短信說：“真冷！呵！”上週這裏的夜間溫度降至零下好幾度。爲了遵守新規，她的房東今年早些時候開始禁止住戶使用煤爐來取暖。

Expectations of rising Chinese gas demand are driving greenfield natural gas projects in Siberia and boosting hopes of LNG sales from the US, although prices of gas in east Asia are still too low to make US LNG cost-competitive. China currently imports about half the gas it uses, either through pipes from central Asia or in the form of LNG.

中國對天然氣的需求將會上升的預期，正在提振西伯利亞的待開發天然氣項目，並且提高了美國出售液化天然氣的希望——儘管東亞天然氣的低價依然使美國的液化天然氣難以具備價格競爭力。目前中國使用的天然氣中約有一半是進口的，或是通過中亞輸氣管道輸送，或是以液化天然氣形式進口進來。

But in the short term, the shortages derive from Beijing’s ambitious attempt to redesign the energy-use patterns of much of the northern half of the country.

但從短期來看，天然氣的短缺源於北京方面雄心勃勃的嘗試——改變中國北方大部分地區的能源使用格局。

This year is not the first time that Beijing’s targets for improving environmental quality have bumped up against unexpectedly strong growth. In 2010, homes and hospitals in Quanjiao County, a car parts manufacturing hub along the Yangtze River, were plunged into darkness after a panicky local government shut down county-wide electricity supply rather than miss targets for improving energy efficiency.

今年並不是中國政府改善環境質量的目標第一次與意外強勁的經濟增長髮生碰撞。2010年，在長江邊的汽車部件製造中心安徽省滁州市全椒縣，爲了完成節能減排目標，焦慮的當地政府在全縣拉閘斷電，居民住宅和醫院都陷入黑暗之中。