環保氣勢洶洶 未來煤炭賣給誰

Coal is the most abundant and obvious energy source in the world, but opponents to its use are more vocal than ever.

煤炭是地球上儲量最豐富、最易得的能源，但目前反對使用煤炭的聲浪之高已超過以往任何時候。

It is not just concern at coal’s role in creating carbon emissions — and hence climate change — that is a problem for demand. Economics also play a part, with coal’s competitiveness against other types of fuel having fallen.

造成煤炭需求問題的不僅是煤炭巨大的碳排放量——從而引起氣候變化——所引起的擔憂，經濟效益也有一定影響，煤炭與其他類型燃料相比競爭力已經下降。

In the US, for example, the emergence of shale gas has meant some coal output has been priced out of the market. Peabody Energy, the US’s largest coal miner, says falls in the price of natural gas will cut US coal demand by 60m-80m tons this year. US coal demand last year was close to 920m short tons, says the US Energy Information Administration.

以美國爲例，頁岩氣的出現造成部分煤炭產量因價格過高被擠出市場。美國最大的礦業公司博地能源(Peabody Energy)表示，由於天然氣價格下跌，今年美國煤炭需求將減少6000萬到8000萬噸。美國能源情報署(US Energy Information Administration)表示，美國去年煤炭需求接近9.2億短噸。

Coal still provides about 30 per cent of global primary energy needs and generates more than 40 per cent of the world’s electricity, according to the World Coal Association, the coal miners’ industry body. In the world’s most populous countries, China and India, the percentage of energy needs met by coal is even higher at about 70 per cent.

根據行業機構世界煤炭協會(World Coal Association)的數據，煤炭提供了全球約30%的一次能源和40%以上的電力。在人口第一和第二大國中國和印度，煤炭所滿足的能源需求比例甚至達到70%左右。

The International Energy Agency estimates coal demand will grow by only 0.5 per cent a year up to 2040, compared with 2.5 per cent annually over the past three decades. In the US, coal use will fall by one-third during that period, and even in China — whose voracious demand for coal kept the market buoyant for much of the past decade — a peak could come by 2030, the IEA says.

國際能源署(IEA)估計到2040年，煤炭需求每年僅增長0.5%，而過去30年的年增長率爲2.5%。國際能源署表示，美國的煤炭用量至2040年將下降三分之一，中國也有望在2030年到達峯值。過去十年中的大部分時間，中國巨大的煤炭需求維持了煤炭市場的活躍。

Indeed, coal consumption in China fell in 2014, with imports down 11 per cent, the first fall in a decade. Economic growth has slowed, while China is also making strenuous efforts to cut coal use to reduce pollution. Coal-fired electricity plants are running at little over half their installed capacity and, combined with abundant supply, this has pushed down global coal prices. Benchmark export thermal coal prices have fallen about 60 per cent from a 2011 peak.

實際上中國的煤炭消費量在2014年已經下滑，煤炭進口下降了11%，這是十年來的首次下降。中國經濟增速已經放緩，同時也做出極大努力削減煤炭使用以減少污染。由於燃煤發電廠僅運行了五成多點的裝機容量，再加上煤炭供應充足，造成國際煤炭價格被壓低。動力煤出口基準價格從2011年的峯值下跌了約60%。

If China is committed to reducing coal use, it will mirror the efforts being made in developed markets. In the US, new rules known as Mercury and Air Toxics Standards, or MATS, are expected to lead to the withdrawal from service of about 60GW of coal-fired generating capacity by 2018. That is about one-fifth of the installed capacity. Even tougher US rules are in the pipeline in the shape of a “Clean Power Plan” by the Environmental Protection Agency. Aimed at cutting carbon emissions from power generation, they could cut US coal demand by a quarter by 2020, but coal companies are fighting hard against the measures, with Peabody saying they are a “major over-reach” by the EPA.

如果中國致力於減少煤炭使用，它將借鑑發達市場所作出的努力。美國出臺了新的“汞及大氣有毒物排放標準”（Mercury and Air Toxics Standards，簡稱MATS），若得到貫徹落實，預計至2018年美國的燃煤發電能力將減少大約60萬千瓦，相當於總裝機容量的五分之一左右。美國還在醞釀更強硬的規定，這就是美國國家環境保護局(Environmental Protection Agency)的“清潔能源計劃”(Clean Power Plan)。該計劃旨在減少發電所造成的碳排放，到2020年，美國煤炭需求可能因此減少四分之一，但煤炭公司正竭力反對該舉措，博地能源表示環保局出這些規定“大大越權”。

Where does this leave coal miners? Growth in developing countries is still the great hope. Glencore, one of the largest coal miners, points out that Asia’s annual demand for coal is still expected to rise by more than 1bn tonnes by 2025 — more than current total global demand for maritime traded thermal coal — with half the expected increase coming from outside China.

煤礦企業該怎麼辦？發展中國家的增長仍是一大希望。全球最大煤礦企業之一嘉能可(Glencore)指出，至2025年，亞洲煤炭年需求量預計仍將增加逾10億噸，這比目前動力煤海上貿易的全球總需求還多，而預計增量中的一半將來自中國以外地區。

Much depends on the pace of transition to a lower-carbon economy. If all the policy changes that have been announced to cut carbon emissions do not take place, demand for coal is expected to be stronger still.

煤炭需求很大程度上取決於全球向低碳經濟過渡的節奏。如果所有已宣佈的削減碳排放的政策改革得不到執行，煤炭需求預計還會更加強勁。

India: Ambitious targets may boost demand

印度：宏偉目標或許會提振煤炭需求

With years of strong growth in China’s coal use seemingly slowing, India is emergingas the coal industry’s great hope to take up the slack.

隨着中國多年來強勁的用煤增長似乎有所放緩，印度正逐漸成爲煤炭行業維持強勁需求的希望所在。

India has the world’s second-largest population and its economy still relies heavily on coal, which meets well over half of energy demand. The election of Narendra Modi as Prime Minister, seen as a reformer wanting to step up economic growth, is seen as positive for coal use. “The Indian growth story is starting to gain traction,” Mike Henry, a senior BHP Billiton executive, told investors last year.

印度是全球第二人口大國，其經濟仍嚴重依賴煤炭，能源需求有一半以上要靠煤炭滿足。納倫德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)當選印度總理被認爲將推動煤炭使用，在人們眼裏，莫迪是改革派，希望加快印度經濟增長。必和必拓(BHP Billiton)高管邁克•亨利(Mike Henry)去年對投資者表示：“印度的增長故事正開始吸引注意。”

The International Energy Agency (IEA), expects India to become the second-largest coal consumer by 2020, overtaking the US. It also expects that India will overtake China to become the largest importer of thermal coal, used for generating power. How beneficial this is for global coal exporters is likely to depend on how quickly India can improve its domestic coal mining industry.

國際能源署預計到2020年，印度將超過美國成爲全球第二大煤炭消費國。國際能源署還預計印度將超過中國成爲動力煤最大進口國。煤炭出口國能從印度的這一轉變中獲得多大利益，可能要取決於印度國內煤礦行業的發展速度。

Coal India, the state-owned miner, is being asked to double output over the next five years — an ambitious target. India may therefore become a much more important global market.

國有企業印度煤炭公司(Coal India)被要求在未來5年將產出翻番，這是一個宏偉的目標。印度可能因此成爲一個更加重要的國際煤炭市場。

The IEA puts India’s rise in coal demand in the next five years at 250 megatons. That is more than is currently consumed by any country other than China, the US and India itself. Yet, as the agency says: “There is no other China out there”.

國際能源署預計未來5年印度煤炭需求將增加250兆噸，這一增幅將超過目前除中國、美國和印度以外其他任一國家的煤炭消費量。但該機構也表示：“世上沒有第二個中國。”