中國需求下降重創美國煤炭業

Slowing growth in China is taking a brutal toll on Appalachian coal mines and coal towns.

中國經濟增速放緩沉重打擊了美國阿巴拉契亞地區的煤礦和煤城。

Appalachia has one of the world's richest deposits of high-grade coal used to make steel. Thanks to Chinese demand, the price for premium metallurgical coal, whose low-ash and low-sulfur content makes it ideal for steelmaking, hit a record $330 a metric ton in early 2011.

下崗礦工鮑威爾（左）與家人在西弗吉尼亞州的霍頓市。阿巴拉契亞地區鍊鋼用高等級煤炭的儲藏量位居世界前列。由於中國的需求，優質焦煤價格在2011年年初創下了每噸330美元的紀錄。焦煤煙塵少、硫含量低，是鍊鋼的理想之選。

Now, the Chinese economy is slowing and so is its steel industry. That has sent the price of coal used for steelmaking down nearly 50% to $170 a metric ton. Those coal producers who counted on Chinese sales are reeling.

現在中國經濟在放緩，鋼鐵行業也在減速，這導致鍊鋼用煤炭價格跌到每噸170美元，幾乎下跌了一半。寄望於中國市場的煤炭生產商受到了沉重的打擊。

'When someone had coal to move, China was your big box store,' said Ernie Thrasher, chief executive of XCoal Energy & Resources, a major U.S. marketer of such coal to Asia. This year, 'the switch went off.'

XCoal Energy & Resources是美國向亞洲出口焦煤的重要貿易商，該公司首席執行長思拉舍(Ernie Thrasher)說，當有人有煤炭要賣的時候，中國就是一個大賣場，但今年一切都停頓了下來。

While many have blamed the downturn in the U.S. coal industry on cheap natural gas supplanting coal and tougher environmental regulations, the slide in metallurgical coal demand has been equally devastating. Coal companies were caught flat-footed after ramping up production last year with the expectation that steep prices would cover their rising costs, despite coal's past cyclicality. Instead, demand in China began to falter just as Australian metallurgical coal production-interrupted by floods last year-surged back into the market.

很多人將美國煤炭產業的不景氣歸咎於廉價的天然氣取代了煤炭，以及環保監管越來越嚴格。然而焦煤需求下滑帶來的打擊也同樣沉重。去年煤炭企業不顧以往本行業的週期性特徵，仍指望價格的大幅上漲蓋過成本的上升，所以擴大生產。結果中國的需求慢了下來，同時受去年洪災破壞的澳大利亞焦煤生產迅速恢復供應，讓他們措手不及。

In July, Patriot Coal Corp. of St. Louis filed for bankruptcy protection, shortly after it lost a contract for coal bound for an Asian steelmaker. Patriot's stock slid 18% the day after it announced that news, taking other coal stocks down with it. Earlier this month, Patriot said it would temporarily idle metallurgical coal operations at three mining complexes in southern West Virginia and lay off 250 miners, in addition to 1,000 layoffs earlier this year. On top of that, Patriot has said it will need to reduce 'unsustainable' pension and health benefits to 2,000 miners and some 20,000 retirees and surviving spouses.

今年7月，聖路易斯的Patriot Coal Corp.申請破產保護。之前不久，該公司丟掉了一份向亞洲一家鋼鐵企業供應煤炭的合同。公佈消息之後的第二天，Patriot股價下跌18%，拖累煤炭股跟着走低。該公司本月早些時候表示，將暫停西弗吉尼亞州南部三個礦區的焦煤生產，並在今年早些時候裁員1,000人的基礎上再裁掉250名礦工。除此以外，Patriot還曾表示將需要削減2,000名礦工、約20,000名退休人員及未亡配偶“不可持續”的養老和醫療福利。

China's metallurgical coal imports dropped to 2.6 million metric tons in August, from an average of 4.5 million metric tons per month through July. Now coal mines are closing throughout Appalachia. Earlier this month, Alpha Natural Resources Inc., of Bristol, Va., which derives a large share of its profits from metallurgical coal, said it was cutting 1,200 jobs, or 9.2% of its workforce. Earlier this year, Alpha laid off more than 700 miners and trimmed production at more than 20 mines. Consol Energy Inc. of Pittsburgh, which sells more coal into China than any other U.S. producer, earlier this month idled the nation's biggest metallurgical coal mine, which employs 620 miners. Arch Coal Inc. trimmed its metallurgical coal production estimate by 21% this year.

今年1月至7月，中國平均每月進口焦煤450萬噸，8月份降至260萬噸。現在整個阿巴拉契亞地區的煤礦紛紛關閉。弗吉尼亞布裏斯托爾的Alpha Natural Resources Inc.有很大一部分利潤來自焦煤業務。該公司本月早些時候表示將裁員1,200人，相當於員工總數的9.2%。今年早些時候它已經裁掉700多名礦工，並減少了20多座煤礦的產量。皮茲堡的Consol Energy Inc.向中國出口的煤炭比其他任何美國生產商都多。本月早些時候，該公司讓僱用礦工620人的全美最大焦煤礦停產。Arch Coal Inc.將自己今年焦煤產量的預期下調了21%。

Miners like Phillip Powell, 38 years old, of Wharton, have been swept up by the collapse. 'A lot of guys that I worked with are scared of losing everything they own,' said Mr. Powell, who was laid off in March from a section foreman job at a Patriot metallurgical coal mine. Mr. Powell said he sees no chance of finding another job that would come anywhere close to paying the $108,000 he earned last year. After 17 years in mining, he plans to go back to college to get certified to teach physical education.

來自西弗吉尼亞州霍頓市(Wharton)的38歲礦工鮑威爾(Phillip Powell)是減產潮的受害者之一。他說，很多跟我一塊工作的人都害怕失去自己擁有的一切。鮑威爾原來在Patriot公司的一座焦煤礦當領工，今年3月份被裁。他覺得自己再也找不到一份接近去年10.8萬美元收入的工作了。在採礦業幹了17年之後，他打算回大學拿一份教體育的文憑。

Appalachian coal industry executives had been counting on metallurgical or 'met' coal─which is sold at a premium to steelmakers-to offset the dwindling market for lower-grade thermal coal used by power plants. The thermal coal market has been weakening because utilities are buying cleaner-burning natural gas instead. Natural-gas prices have plummeted as energy companies used hydraulic fracturing to extract gas from vast shale formations.

過去，阿巴拉契亞地區的煤礦業管理人員依靠焦煤來彌補不斷縮小的動力煤市場，動力煤等級較低，用於發電廠發電，而焦煤則可以更高的價格賣給鋼鐵廠商。由於公用事業公司開始轉而購買燃燒起來更清潔的天然氣，動力煤市場一直在走軟。隨着能源公司利用水力壓裂法從巨大的頁岩層中提取天然氣，天然氣價格大幅下跌。

In April, natural gas and coal each fueled 32% of the nation's electricity, achieving parity for the first time in the decades that the Energy Information Administration has tracked the data. For decades, coal powered about 50% of the electricity to the nation's businesses and homes.

今年4月，天然氣和煤炭發電量各佔美國發電總量的32%，在美國能源情報署(Energy Information Administration)有數據記載的這幾十年裏首次達到相同佔比。此前的幾十年，美國企業和家庭用電量的約50%都來自煤炭發電。

Metallurgical coal exports were supposed to fill the gap. Only a year ago Patriot was posting record revenue and operating earnings and embarking on a plan called the 'Met Built-Out' to open new metallurgical mines and hire up to 200 new miners.

焦煤出口原本應該彌補國內需求的疲軟。僅一年前，Patriot還錄得了創紀錄的營收和運營利潤，並正在啓動一項“焦煤增產”計劃，以開採新的焦煤煤礦，增聘最多200名礦工。

Other coal companies were buying rivals to strengthen their metallurgical coal operations and reserves. Four publicly traded U.S. coal companies made acquisitions in North America totaling $14 billion in 2011, the largest being Alpha's $7.1 billion purchase of troubled Massey Energy.

其他煤炭公司當時也在收購競爭對手，以便擴大其焦煤業務和儲量。2011年，四家美國上市煤企在北美地區進行了規模總計140億美元的收購，其中最大一樁是阿爾法公司(Alpha)斥資71億美元收購陷入困境的梅西能源公司(Massey Energy)。

Alpha now has 1.5 billion tons of metallurgical coal reserves, and the ability to export up to 30 million tons a year. It is hoping to weather the weak market by being the low-cost producer of premium met coal. 'While it's a bit soft now, we have a very valuable metallurgical coal franchise, and we're hitching our wagon to it,' said Alpha Chief Executive Kevin Crutchfield.

阿爾法如今有15億噸焦煤儲量，焦煤年出口能力最高可達3,000萬噸。該公司希望憑藉低成本生產優質焦煤而度過市場疲弱不振的難關。該公司首席執行長克拉奇菲爾德(Kevin Crutchfield)說，儘管眼下市場有些疲軟，我們有着非常有價值的焦煤業務，我們正寄希望於此。

The cost to pull a ton of coal out of the ground varies widely from mine to mine based on geologic conditions and the degree of automation. In Appalachia, average mining costs are about $65 to $75 per ton. A ton of thermal coal is currently selling for $52 a ton on the spot market, making it impossible to operate some mines at a profit.

依地質條件和自動化程度不同，各煤礦從地下開採一噸煤的成本相差很大。在阿巴拉契亞地區，平均開採成本約爲每噸65美元至75美元。現貨市場上動力煤的售價目前爲每噸52美元，這就使得一些煤礦的運營不可能盈利。

Before the China steel market took off, metallurgical coal was valued much like thermal coal and was often sold to power plants where it was burned like lower-grade coals. 'It was like using an expensive bottle of red wine to make spaghetti sauce,' said Paul Forward, an analyst with Stifel, Nicolaus & Co.

在中國鋼鐵市場升溫之前，焦煤和動力煤一樣不受重視，焦煤常常被銷售給發電廠，和等級更低的煤一樣燒來發電。經紀公司Stifel, Nicolaus & Co.的分析師福沃德(Paul Forward)說，就像是用一瓶非常昂貴的紅酒做意大利麪麪醬一樣。

That changed with China's industrial boom. Up until 2004, the price for metallurgical coal stayed below $40 a ton in the U.S. Prices hit an all time record of $330 a metric ton in the second quarter of 2011 after flooding in Queensland, Australia, disrupted coal supplies headed for China.

隨着中國工業的快速發展，情況發生了改變。2004年之前，美國焦煤價格一直在每噸40美元以下。2011年二季度，澳大利亞昆士蘭州發生洪災，輸往中國的煤炭供應中斷後，焦煤價格達到每噸330美元，創歷史新高。

China couldn't seem to get enough metallurgical coal to feed its steelmaking industry. In 2009, U.S. met coal exports to China grew nearly six-fold, and grew by the same rate in 2010, linking Appalachia more closely to the global steel trade.

爲給鋼鐵製造業提供動力，中國對焦煤似乎永不厭足。2009年，美國對中國焦煤出口增長了近五倍，2010年增速與上年相仿，將阿巴拉契亞地區與全球鋼鐵貿易更緊密地聯繫在一起。

Now the China spigot is closing. The Chinese steel industry-which consumes half of all metallurgical coal mined each year-faces the possibility it could operate at a loss in 2012 for the first time as a result of overcapacity and weak steel prices, according to the China Iron & Steel Association. That would mean tougher times in West Virginia, where rail, barge, trucking and other jobs depend on coal.

如今中國的需求開始下滑。據中國鋼鐵工業協會說，由於產能過剩和鋼材價格低迷，2012年中國鋼鐵業可能將首次面臨虧損的局面。中國鋼鐵行業的焦煤消費量佔每年全球總消費量的一半。這將意味着西弗吉尼亞州日子會更加困難，在那裏，鐵路、貨船、貨車運輸和其他工作崗位都要依靠煤炭行業。