中國鋼鐵行業無懼美國關稅

When President Trump said he would introduce tariffs on global imports of aluminium and steel, China largely shrugged it off.

當美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)聲稱將對全球輸美的鋁和鋼鐵徵收關稅時，中國似乎並不是太在意。

Even before the announcement, Chinese steelmakers said they were not worried about tariffs. That is because years of low exports to the US and the opening of new markets has left China relatively insulated from the immediate impact of American trade actions.

甚至在美國正式宣佈消息之前，中國鋼鐵製造商就表示，他們並不擔心關稅問題。多年來中國對美國鋼鐵出口量較少以及新市場的開闢，使中國相對不受美國貿易行動的直接影響。

“China has only a limited number of other steel products. In comparison, other countries will suffer even greater losses,” says Li Xinchuang, vice-director at industry group China Iron and Steel Association (Cisa). The real worry is the potential knock-on effects of tariffs, manufacturers say, as Chinese steel moves elsewhere in the global market and competition intensifies in other countries.

中國鋼鐵工業協會(CISA)副會長李新創表示，中國會受影響的鋼鐵產品數量有限，相比之下，其他國家將遭受更大損失。中國鋼鐵製造商表示，真正令人擔憂的是這些關稅帶來的潛在連鎖效應，因爲中國生產的鋼鐵正在流入全球市場其他地區，而在其他國家競爭在加劇。

“It’s really the secondary impact of launching a global entrenchment in trade barriers which is a bigger threat,” says Tomas Gutierrez, Asia editor at industry publication Kallanish Commodities. “The more the US imposes costs on trade, the more other countries impose on trade. The more costs on trade, the more trade, especially in commodities, becomes localised.”

“在貿易壁壘中構築一道全球壕溝的二次影響纔是更大的威脅，”行業刊物Kallanish Commodities的亞洲編輯托馬斯?古鐵雷斯(Tomas Gutierrez)表示，“美國擡高貿易成本，其他國家也會如法炮製。貿易成本越高，就有越多的貿易變得本地化，尤其是在大宗商品領域。”

In 2017, China accounted for about 2 per cent of total American steel imports by volume, according to official US trade data.

美國官方貿易數據顯示，2017年，中國僅佔美國鋼鐵進口總量的約2%。

Linda Lin, editor in Shanghai for the consultancy CRU’s China Steel Service, says: “We can see the number of Chinese exporters that have already given up the US market due to existing trade barriers.”

諮詢機構英國商品研究所(CRU)的中國鋼鐵服務(China Steel Service)駐上海編輯Linda Lin表示：“我們可以看到一些中國出口商已經因爲現有的貿易壁壘而放棄了美國市場。”

Globally, Chinese steel exports dropped by a third last year because of slowing domestic production. Six hundred induction furnaces — outdated and sometimes unlicensed facilities producing low-quality steel — have been closed since 2016, accounting for up to 7 per cent of annual production, says China’s industry and technology ministry.

去年，由於國內生產放緩，中國鋼鐵出口量下降了三分之一。中國工信部表示，2016年以來關停了600座感應爐（這些老舊、有一些甚至未經許可的設施主要生產質量低劣的鋼鐵產品），佔年產量的7%。

A key exception are steel-consuming products, such as home appliances. China’s most salient worry is that potential anti-dumping tariffs could extend to so-called white goods which use steel.

一個重要的例外是家用電器等使用鋼材的產品。中國最擔憂的是，使用鋼材作爲原材料的“白色家電”也可能被徵收反傾銷關稅。

Meanwhile, slowing domestic demand (the World Steel Association forecasts real growth in steel demand to be flat this year) means Chinese steel will have to find new export markets, probably in south-east Asia and the Middle East, which are affiliated with China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative on infrastructure.

與此同時，國內需求放緩（世界鋼鐵協會(WSA)預計，今年中國實際鋼鐵需求將與去年持平）意味着，中國鋼鐵將不得不尋找新的出口市場，潛在市場包括參與中國“一帶一路”基建倡議的東南亞和中東。

Chinese trade officials are confident that a globalising China could sidestep tariffs in part because of “exporting capacity” programmes under the Belt and Road initiative, which include buying or building steel factories in European countries and sharing technological know-how.

中國貿易官員相信，日益全球化的中國可以避開美國關稅的打擊，這部分得益於“一帶一路”倡議下的“產能出口”項目，包括在歐洲國家收購或建造鋼廠以及共享技術工藝。

Sun Yongfu, a retired Chinese diplomat and a former director at the ministry of commerce, says the country’s presence in markets like Serbia, a potential EU member state, could give it a future platform to sell into the bloc.

中國退休外交官、前商務部歐洲司司長孫永福表示，在有望加入歐盟的塞爾維亞等一些市場，中國已經站住了腳，可以作爲未來進入歐盟市場的一個平臺。

China’s total exports of steel and aluminium are so large that even a slight increase could flood smaller markets.

中國鋼鋁出口總量非常大，即使只是小幅增長，都可能對規模較小的市場造成衝擊。

“Trade shifts. If Chinese steel exports increase to other countries, then those countries may also be affected and take on the same measures,” says Mr Sun.

孫永福說：“貿易會轉移。如果中國向其他國家增加鋼鐵出口，那麼那些國家也可能受到影響，並採取同樣的措施。”

In December, the US department of commerce set duties of 200-500 per cent on certain Vietnamese steel exports because they used Chinese steel products. That could pose a dangerous precedent in future trade negotiations. Mr Gutierrez called US duties on Vietnamese goods “a stretch of WTO rules to where they are almost at the breaking point”.

去年12月，美國商務部對來自越南的一些鋼材徵收200%-500%的關稅，因爲後者使用了中國的鋼鐵產品。這或將爲未來的貿易談判樹立一個危險的先例。古鐵雷斯稱美國對越南產品的徵稅是“將WTO規則運用到了極致”。

“The USA is starting to use more alternative approaches to tariffs, and the obvious reaction from other economies is, ‘if they’re doing it why can’t we do it?’?”

“美國正開始使用更多的非關稅方法，其他經濟體的明顯反應是，‘如果他們這麼做了，我們爲什麼不能這麼做?’”

Meanwhile, US tariffs have given China the moral high ground to position itself as a free-market advocate.

與此同時，美國徵收鋼鋁關稅讓中國站在了可自稱爲自由市場倡導者的道德高地。

“Let the world know of China, recognise China, learn from China, and in particular, the Chinese government has adopted a series of market-oriented and rule-by-law policies and measures,” says Mr Li.

李新創表示：“讓世界瞭解中國，認可中國，借鑑中國的經驗，何況中國政府還採取了一系列以市場爲導向和尊重法治的政策和措施。”

“Duties have a short-term sweetness, but in picking the seeds, [the US] may lose the whole watermelon.”

“關稅只能帶來短時的甜頭，（美國）可能撿了芝麻，丟了西瓜。”