中國鋼鐵需求推升鐵礦石價格

Iron ore, the steelmaking ingredient, has rebounded to trade close to $60 a tonne as Chinese steel prices have rallied into the country’s peak construction season.

隨着中國鋼鐵價格回升到施工旺季，鐵礦石（鍊鋼原料）交易價格反彈至每噸近60美元。

Benchmark Australian ore for immediate delivery to China was assessed at $59.90 a tonne on Monday, up $2.40, by the Steel index. Shares in BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, two of the world’s biggest producers, rose in London.

據鋼鐵指數公司(The Steel Index)評估，對華即時交割的基準澳大利亞鐵礦石週一上漲2.4美元，每噸至59.9美元。全球最大的兩家鐵礦石生產商必和必拓(BHP Billiton)和力拓(Rio Tinto)在倫敦市場的股票出現上漲。

A pick-up in construction and the property market in China, which normally occurs before the summer, has boosted expectations for steel demand, even as many mills struggle with excess capacity.

中國建築和房地產市場的重新好轉（通常出現在夏季之前）已經帶動了鋼鐵需求的預期，雖然許多鋼廠依舊在努力應對產能過剩問題。

The most-traded steel futures rose 3.2 per cent on Monday on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Iron ore has climbed more than 40 per cent this year and is up 62 per cent from its December low.

週一，上海期貨交易所(Shanghai Futures Exchange)交易量最大的鋼材期貨上漲3.2%。今年鐵礦石已攀升40%以上，比去年12月的低點上漲了62%。

China’s imports of iron ore rose 6.5 per cent last month, as steel mills restocked inventories. That led to a rally in Chinese iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, which are the fifth-largest global commodity contract by daily trading volume, according to Citigroup.

受鋼廠補充庫存帶動，中國的鐵礦石進口較上月增長了6.5%。據花旗集團(Citigroup)的數據，這導致大連商品交易所(Dalian Commodity Exchange)的中國鐵礦石期貨出現反彈，中國鐵礦石期貨是以每日交易量計全球第五大期貨商品。

Still analysts cautioned that the rebound in Chinese steel demand was unlikely to last, and that iron ore prices were still vulnerable to the overhang of supply and a weak global steel market. The warmer weather and higher steel prices could also lead to the restart of higher-cost Chinese iron ore mines.

但分析師警告中國鋼鐵需求的反彈不太可能持續，鐵礦石價格仍然容易受到供應過剩、全球鋼鐵市場疲軟的影響。天氣轉暖，鋼鐵價格走高，可能還會導致中國重啓一些成本較高的鐵礦。

China has increasingly relied on overseas supplies after iron ore prices fell from more than $140 a tonne in early 2014. About 86.7 per cent of the iron ore it needed had been imported in the first two months of the year, up from 84 per cent last year and 78.5 per cent in 2014, Wang Liqun of the China Iron and Steel Association said last week, according to the Caixin financial magazine.

自2014年初鐵礦石從每噸140多美元的價格下跌以來，中國開始日益依賴海外供應。據財新(Caixin)報道，中國鋼鐵工業協會(China Iron and Steel Association)的王立羣上週表示，今年前兩個月，中國鐵礦石對外依存度升高到了86.7%，2015年爲84%，2014年爲78.4%。

An additional 100m to 120m tonnes of new low-cost iron ore supply is expected this year, according to analysts at Citi, even as global steel demand is expected to remain flat.

花旗(Citi)分析師表示，今年低成本鐵礦石供應量將增加1億噸到1.2億噸，雖然全球鋼鐵需求預計將持平。

Global steel demand is contracting and is expected to fall 0.8 per cent this year to 1,488 tonnes, according to the World Steel Association, following a drop of 3 per cent last year.

據世界鋼鐵協會(World Steel Association)的數據，繼去年下跌3%之後，全球鋼鐵需求持續萎縮，預計今年將下跌0.8%至1488噸。

“Weaker than expected Australian exports and more resilient Chinese steel production have kept prices elevated. However, both trends are likely to reverse in the medium and long term,” Citi said.

花旗表示：“澳大利亞出口弱於預期，加上中國鋼鐵產量彈性較大，令價格升高。但這兩種趨勢都可能在中長期內扭轉。”

In China steel demand is likely to have peaked in 2013, with production supported by growth in exports since then, according to analysts at Haitong Securities.

海通證券(Haitong Securities)分析師表示，中國鋼鐵需求很可能在2013年已達頂峯，此後支持生產的是出口增長。