全球鋼鐵業低迷 中國或成復甦希望

Signs of a turnaround in the property market and increased infrastructure investment in China could offer a glimmer of hope that the steel market is headed for a recovery, even as market participants suggest the floundering sector may struggle to rebound until 2013 at the earliest.

房地產市場出現回暖跡象以及中國國內基礎設施投資增加給人們帶來了一絲希望，即鋼材市場正在走向復甦。與此同時，市場參與者表示，苦苦掙扎的鋼材市場最快也要到2013年才能出現復甦。

Steel prices continue to fall after a lengthy period of weakness during which the price has plunged below the cost of production for many steel producers.

在一段漫長的價格疲軟之後，鋼材價格繼續下跌。在價格疲軟期間，鋼價已經跌破了很多鋼鐵生產企業的生產成本。

Salzgitter, Germany's second-largest steelmaker, said earlier this month that the financial crisis had hurt demand from traditional buyers in construction and manufacturing, and that customers have been reluctant to place orders amid the uncertainty of the European sovereign-debt crisis.

德國第二大鋼鐵生產商薩爾茨吉特(Salzgitter)本月早些時候說，金融危機降低了建築業和製造業傳統買家的需求，此外，由於歐元區主權債務危機所造成的不確定性，客戶不願下訂單。

Last month, ArcelorMittal cut its growth forecast for global steel demand to 3.5% to 4% from an earlier estimate of 4% to 4.5%.

上個月，安賽樂米塔爾(ArcelorMittal)將其對全球鋼鐵需求的增長預期下調到3.5%至4%之間，其此前預期爲4%至4.5%。

'The steel market is in dire straits,' said Denny Sabah, a research analyst at trading company Ronly Holdings. 'The summer slowdown in Europe usually leads to a bounce-back in September, but this didn't happen last year and it doesn't look like it's going to happen this year. There is far too much overcapacity in Europe, and profit margins are wafer thin, if producers are making any profit at all.'

貿易商Ronly Holdings的研究分析師薩巴(Denny Sabah)說，鋼材市場處於水深火熱之中。歐洲夏季放緩的需求通常會在9月出現反彈，但去年沒有出現這一情況，看來今年也不太可能會出現。歐洲鋼鐵產能嚴重過剩，就算鋼鐵企業能夠實現盈利，其利潤率也微乎其微。

The price of hot-rolled coil in Northern Europe is down around 8% over the past six months, at 503 ($623) a ton, according to the Steel Index, an information provider. Hot-rolled coil has a variety of industrial applications, including steel tubes for the automotive sector, shipbuilding and energy pipelines.

鋼材價格信息提供商鋼鐵指數(Steel Index)透露，北歐熱軋卷板的價格在過去六個月內下跌了大約8%，至每噸503歐元（約合623美元）。熱軋卷板在工業上有多種應用，其中包括汽車製造業、造船以及能源管道用到的鋼管。

Steel reinforcing bar, widely used in construction, is trading at 510 a ton in Northern Europe, also down 8% over the past six months.

北歐鋼筋價格過去六個月內下跌8%，至每噸510歐元。鋼筋被廣泛用於建築業。

'The bigger steel producers are starting to cut prices in a period which is usually seen as strong for construction. So, on balance, [it is] not all boding well,' Sucden Financial broker Rob Montefusco said. 'Ultimately steel goes into products which are bought by the man on the street. Until you can fight unemployment and get people spending again, an improvement, particularly in Europe, seems far off-the next few years may well be a write-off.'

大宗商品交易商Sucden Financial的經紀人蒙特福斯科(Rob Montefusco)說，在當前這樣一個通常被視爲建築業鋼材需求旺盛的時期，大中型鋼鐵廠商卻開始降價。因此，總的來說，這並不是一個好兆頭。鋼鐵將用於生產普通人所購買的那些產品。除非你能降低失業率，讓人們再次開始消費，否則這種低迷的行情想要得到改善看上去可謂遙不可及（歐洲尤其如此）。未來幾年很可能需求低迷。

Cash-strapped steel mills have cut production and dramatically lowered prices, but there hasn't yet been a noticeable rebound in demand, steelmakers say.

一些鋼鐵製造企業說，由於資金嚴重不足，一些鋼鐵廠已經減產並大幅降價，但是需求尚未出現明顯反彈。

China may offer the only glimmer of hope.

中國可能是唯一的希望了。

In a research note, analysts at Macquarie said there had been a steady improvement in Chinese real estate sales, considered an indicator for construction activity following a downturn. Data released Saturday by China's National Bureau of Statistics also showed that average housing prices in 70 Chinese cities rose in July from June-a second consecutive month of mild gains after eight months of declines.

麥格理證券(Macquarie)的分析師在一份研究報告中說，中國住房銷量已經出現了穩步回升。房地產銷量被看做是反映建築業活動的一項指標。中國國家統計局上週六公佈的數據也顯示，中國70個大中城市的平均房價7月份實現環比上漲，這是房價經歷了八個月的下降後連續第二個月緩慢回升。

China has also stepped up approvals for infrastructure projects in a bid to boost economic growth. 'The level of investment in infrastructure is starting to increase after a very slow start to the year and there is plenty of room for further increases if full-year targets for 2012 are to be met,' Macquarie said.

爲了刺激經濟增長，中國政府還加大了批准基礎設施項目的力度。麥格理證券說，在今年年初緩慢起步後，基礎設施投資水平開始提高，如果要實現2012全年的目標，基礎設施投資還有進一步增長的充足空間。

Still, there remains a glut of steel capacity in northern Asia that will keep prices from rising much in coming months. According to the Steel Index, the price for Chinese exports of hot-rolled coil to Europe or North America has dropped to $553 a ton, down 12% over the past six months and more than 20% from a year earlier.

儘管如此，北亞地區仍然存在鋼鐵產能過剩的問題，這將阻礙鋼鐵價格在未來幾個月大幅上漲。鋼鐵價格信息提供商鋼鐵指數稱，中國出口到歐洲和北美的熱軋卷板的價格已經降至每噸553美元，過去六個月下降了12%，同比降幅超過20%。

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia expects weak demand to continue. In Europe, in particular, it said demand will likely stagnate as the euro-zone debt crisis keeps a cap on economic activity.

澳洲聯邦銀行(Commonwealth Bank of Australia)預計，需求不足的狀況仍會持續。該銀行說，歐洲的情況尤爲如此，由於歐元區債務危機對經濟活動造成限制，歐洲的需求很可能會陷入停滯。

It also said construction activity in China, particularly from new infrastructure works, will provide some support to prices-although it suggests this is more likely to be in 2013 than later this year.

澳洲聯邦銀行還說，中國的建築業活動，尤其是新的基礎設施工程將爲鋼鐵價格提供些許支撐，不過這種情況更有可能發生在2013年，而不是今年晚些時候。

'On the other hand,' said Macquarie, 'the recovery in property sales will only last as long as consumer confidence holds. If the manufacturing sector starts shedding jobs and declines in export demand compound current weakness, then it is very possible that buyers will withdraw from the property market, leading to a slowing of construction and another leg down in commodities demand and steel production.'

但麥格理也指出，只有消費者信心不動搖，房地產銷售的反彈勢頭才能保持下去。如果製造業開始裁員，出口需求下降使目前的經濟低迷進一步加劇，購買者很可能退出房地產市場，從而導致建築業活動放緩，大宗商品需求和鋼鐵生產也會再失去一個支柱。