印度成爲全球鋼鐵業火車頭
It is tough to find a bright spot in the global steel sector, as prices plunge and struggling Chinese producers flood world markets with their surplus stock. But if pressed, gloomy industry-watchers see at least some reason for optimism in Asia’s second-largest emerging market, India.
隨着鋼材價格暴跌、陷入困境的中國生產商將過剩庫存大量投放到國際市場，人們很難在全球鋼鐵業中找到一個亮點。但如果認真思考一下，悲觀的行業觀察家至少可以從印度這個亞洲第二大新興市場中看到一些樂觀的理由。
“There is really only one location that has the long-term potential to pull the global steel market out of its current slump, and that is India,” says Edwin Basson, director-general of the World Steel Association, a trade group. “But, and this is the big question, while India has huge unfilled demand and a big economy, when will all this be felt?”
國際鋼鐵協會(World Steel Association)總幹事埃德溫巴鬆(Edwin Basson)表示：“真的只有一個地方具備讓全球鋼鐵市場擺脫當前低迷的長期潛力，那就是印度。然而，儘管印度有巨大的未得到滿足的需求，而且經濟規模龐大，但什麼時候人們才能感受到這一切？這是一個大問題。”
India is already the world’s fourth-largest steel producer and is expected to overtake the US for third place in the next year or two. And while its steel consumption is barely a tenth that of the world’s largest user, China, it is at least expanding. Growth will be 8 per cent next year, according to Fitch, the rating agency.
印度已經是全球第四大鋼鐵生產國，並有望在一兩年內取代美國，成爲全球第三大生產國。印度的鋼鐵消費量只有全球最大鋼鐵消費國中國的十分之一，但至少處於增長之中。評級機構惠譽(Fitch)估計明年印度鋼鐵消費量增長8%。
India is adding capacity too, led by its big three producers: Tata Steel, JSW Steel, and state-backed Steel Authority of India. Last month, Tata Steel inaugurated a huge new plant in the eastern state of Orissa, which eventually will nearly double its output.
印度也在增加產能，帶頭的是三大生產商：塔塔鋼鐵(Tata Steel)、京德勒西南鋼鐵公司(JSW Steel)，以及國有的印度鋼鐵管理局公司(Steel Authority of India)。上月，塔塔鋼鐵在印度東部奧里薩邦(Orissa)的一座大型工廠舉行了開業典禮，該工廠最終將使其產量接近翻倍。
Tata Steel in many way exemplifies India’s unusual place in world steel markets. The company’s lossmaking European arm has been hammered by cheap imports and flat demand over recent years. It is now moving toward selling off part of its ailing UK division, having announced 1,200 job losses in October. The group’s Indian arm is much smaller, producing just a third of its output, but performs far better, last year contributing 80 per cent of group underlying profits.
塔塔鋼鐵在許多方面都體現了印度在世界鋼鐵市場上的獨特位置。最近幾年，該公司總是虧損的歐洲部門遭受廉價進口和需求平淡的衝擊。塔塔鋼鐵現在正在採取措施，出售其經營不善的英國部門的部分業務，之前該部門在10月就已宣佈裁員1200人。相形之下，該集團印度部門的規模要小得多，產量只佔集團產量的三分之一，但業績表現卻好得多，去年爲集團貢獻了80%的基礎利潤。
Nevertheless, India’s steel producers are downbeat for two main reasons, the first being China. In common with their global counterparts, most have been hit badly as Chinese competitors send excess capacity abroad. Indian steel imports soared 72 per cent in the financial year to March 2015, and have risen further still this year.
然而，印度鋼鐵生產商卻並不樂觀，主要因爲兩個因素，第一個是中國。與全球其他地區的鋼鐵生產商一樣，隨着中國競爭對手向海外釋放過剩產能，印度鋼企普遍遭受沉重打擊。在截止2015年3月的財年裏，印度鋼鐵進口飆升72%，本財年又進一步上升。
Steelmakers are livid. Chinese exports have “caused havoc”, says billionaire tycoon Sajjan Jindal of JSW, India’s second-largest private sector steelmaker by revenue. Domestic steel appetite might be growing, he says, but local production is stagnant because imports mop up any increases in demand.
印度鋼鐵製造商感到憤懣。JSW的薩簡金達爾(Sajjan Jindal)表示，中國出口“造成了嚴重破壞”。按收入計算，JSW是印度第二大民營鋼鐵製造商。金達爾說，國內鋼鐵需求或許是在增長，但由於進口完全吸收了增長的需求，國內產量停滯。
India’s government responded in August by increasing taxes and import duties on a range of steel products, curbing inflows somewhat. But Mr Jindal and his fellow industrialists have been pushing for more, and this month policymakers in New Delhi introduced a series of further minor anti-dumping duties.
印度政府在今年8月對此作出迴應，提高了多種鋼鐵產品的稅率和進口關稅，一定程度上遏制了進口鋼材的流入。但金達爾及其他實業家並未善罷干休，在他們推動下，新德里的政策制定者們本月進一步出臺了一系列力度輕微的反傾銷關稅。
The second problem is poor finances. Indian steelmakers borrowed heavily to add capacity during the country’s mid-2000s boom years. Industry-wide net debt soared 10-fold over the last decade as a result, hitting roughly $50bn this year, according to Credit Suisse.
第二個問題是財務狀況極爲糟糕。在2005年前後印度蓬勃發展期間，印度鋼鐵製造商們大舉借貸，以擴大產能。其結果是，據瑞信(Credit Suisse)表示，整個鋼鐵行業的淨負債在過去十年飆升10倍，到今年約達500億美元。
All that borrowing pushed capacity up by a third, with an extra 15m tonnes added during this financial year alone, according to Fitch analyst Muralidharan Ramakrishnan. But it also came amid a plunge in global iron ore prices, undercutting the cost advantage that Indian producers often enjoyed by mining cheap domestic ore, a key component in steelmaking, and hitting profitability.
惠譽分析師穆拉里達蘭拉瑪克里斯南(Muralidharan Ramakrishnan)表示，這些借貸使印度鋼鐵產能增長三分之一，僅在本財年就增加了1500萬噸。但在產能飆升之際，全球鐵礦石價格暴跌，削弱了印度生產商由於國內開採的鐵礦石價格低廉而經常享有的成本優勢，損害了它們的盈利能力。鐵礦石是鋼鐵生產中的關鍵原材料。
Many Indian steel projects also ran into regulatory difficulties, leaving once fast-growing groups like Mumbai-based Essar Steel struggling to pay down debts. A host of smaller companies are effectively bankrupt. Bureaucratic problems hit foreign producers too, notably South Korea’s Posco, which has mothballed a $12bn facility in the country. ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steel group by revenue, scrapped a big plant two years back.
印度國內的許多鋼鐵項目還遭遇了監管障礙，導致孟買的Essar Steel等一度發展極快的鋼鐵集團難以償還債務。衆多中小鋼企實際上已經破產。外國生產商還受到官僚問題的衝擊，尤其是韓國的浦項制鐵(Posco)——該公司在印度一個投資120億美元的項目已然擱置。按收入計算爲全球最大鋼鐵集團的安賽樂米塔爾(ArcelorMittal)兩年前放棄在印度興建一座大型工廠。
JSW’s Mr Jindal thinks a shakeout is needed. “There will be a correction,” he says, predicting that many minor groups will be swallowed up by larger ones. “These small steel producers will find it hard to operate; they are not environmentally friendly or cost competitive.”
JSW的金達爾認爲，洗牌勢在必行。他說：“將有一場調整。”他預計許多小鋼企將被大集團兼併。“這些小型鋼鐵生產商將會發現很難維持運營；它們不夠環保，或者成本缺乏競爭力。”
Others are more optimistic, pointing both to India’s low per capita steel use and an upturn in the economy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Growth rates are set to stay above 7 per cent over the next two years, boosting carmakers and steel-consuming sectors. Fiscal stimulus will help too, pumping money into new roads and railways.
其他人則較爲樂觀，原因是印度人均鋼鐵使用量較低，而且在總理納倫德拉莫迪(Narendra Modi)的領導下，經濟向好。預計今後兩年印度增長率將維持在7%以上，這有利於汽車製造商和其他鋼鐵消耗行業的發展。印度還出臺了財政刺激政策，大舉投資建設新的公路和鐵路，這也將有所幫助。
India is not going to be able to replace China as global steel’s locomotive any time soon, says Koushik Chatterjee, finance director of Tata Steel, but a mix of protection against unfair imports and fresh government spending can at least spark a new period of growth.
塔塔鋼鐵的財務總監庫什科查特吉(Koushik Chatterjee)表示，印度不會很快取代中國成爲全球鋼鐵業的“火車頭”。但針對不公平進口而採取的防範措施和新增政府支出至少可以讓印度鋼鐵業進入一個新的增長期。
“The biggest trend which can come is more public spending on infrastructure,” he says. “If we get that, the future will look much better.”
他說：“可能出現的最大趨勢是加大對基礎設施的公共支出。若果真如此，未來將會光明得多。”
