蝴蝶風暴 全球鋼鐵業的中國因素(3)

Production posers

生產難題

Port Talbot’s predicament has led to suggestions that the future of steel in developed countries lies outside the heavy end of raw iron and steelmaking. In the UK, Liberty House, a commodities trading group, has reopened a handful of mills that roll cheaper imported steel. But many industry figures say that severing the link with primary metal production makes it difficult to develop new grades.

英國塔爾伯特港鋼廠的困境導致一些人提議，發達國家鋼鐵業的未來不在於把生鐵熔鍊成鋼的重頭一端。在英國，大宗商品交易集團Liberty House重新啓動了幾家軋製更便宜進口鋼鐵的工廠。但許多業內人物表示，脫離了基礎鋼鐵生產，就難以發展新的產品品級。

Yet behind attempts by steelmakers to weather the turbulence, there is an uncomfortable truth. Producers have struggled to improve margins, whether through developing new grades and alloys or internal cost savings, with gains often passed on to customers.

然而，在鋼鐵製造商駕馭動盪的努力背後，有一個令人不爽的現實，那就是企業很難提高利潤率——不管是通過開發新的品級和合金，還是通過節省內部成本，效益往往被客戶享受。

“Steel has invested to help customers without increasing the margin. It’s done all the R&D, but automotive customers are so powerful,” says Mr Beauman.

“鋼鐵業的投資幫助了客戶，卻沒能提高利潤率。鋼鐵業進行了所有的研發，但汽車業客戶太強大了，”行業顧問博曼說。

China’s pivotal influence will determine whether the storm abates or worsens. For the first time, Beijing included tackling overcapacity in its latest five-year plan, and has set targets to cut 100m-150m tonnes of capacity in that period, which it says will require 500,000 steelworker lay-offs. However, analysts debate whether the scale and pace of retrenchment is enough.

中國舉足輕重的影響力將決定這股風暴是會減弱還是會惡化。北京方面首次將應對產能過剩納入其最新的五年規劃，設立了在此期間削減1億到1.5億噸產能的目標，並表示這可能會使50萬中國鋼鐵工人下崗。然而，分析師們對這種縮減的規模和速度是否足夠意見分歧。

In a measure of the challenge, Chinese steel mills have recently ramped up production to take advantage of a price rise caused by a combination of a recovering housing market and an influx of speculative retail investors into commodity futures exchanges.

突顯挑戰巨大的一個跡象是，中國的鋼廠最近提高了產量，以利用房市回暖和大批投機散戶涌入大宗商品期貨交易所的雙重影響帶來的價格上升。

While Beijing has made clear that it will not remove tax incentives for exports, it is receiving some forceful encouragement to desist. The opening shots have been fired in a brewing steel trade war, with the US moving towards tariffs of more than 500 per cent on dumped and subsidised products. The EU is following suit, though less aggressively, and India and South Africa have also erected barriers. This is likely to deliver a boon to producers in countries reliant on imports, like the US, or where demand is growing, such as in India. The risk is that exports are diverted to regions with less robust trade policies.

儘管北京方面明確表示不會取消面向出口的稅收優惠政策，但它正遭受一些強大的阻力。一場醞釀中的鋼鐵貿易戰撲面而來，美國正朝着對傾銷和補貼產品徵收超過500%的關稅前進。歐盟(EU)也在效仿，儘管沒那麼咄咄逼人，而印度和南非也紛紛豎起貿易壁壘。這可能對依賴進口的國家（如美國）或者需求正在增長的國家（如印度）的生產者有利。風險是出口會被轉向貿易政策不那麼強硬的地區。

For the 4,000 Port Talbot workers still uncertain about their jobs, a ray of light is piercing the gloom. Steel prices have risen in recent months and losses that once touched ￡1m a day have narrowed. Their fate could foretell that of rivals in similar positions.

對4000名依然不確定自己是否會丟掉工作的塔爾伯特港鋼廠工人來說，有一束曙光穿透了陰霾。近幾個月鋼價上漲，一度達到每天100萬英鎊的虧損在收窄。他們的命運可能預示處於類似境地的競爭對手的命運。

Mini-mills

延伸閱讀：小鋼廠

As steelmakers worldwide rolled out dismal 2015 results, Nucor, the US’s biggest producer by volumes, bucked the trend. While net earnings fell nearly 40 per cent, the company remained in the black, reporting a profit of $496m. The figures contrasted with $1.5bn net loss for US Steel, the next biggest producer.

2015年，世界各地的鋼鐵生產商交出了慘淡的成績單，按產量計的美國最大鋼鐵生產商紐柯卻逆勢而行。儘管淨利潤下降了近40%，但該公司依然實現了盈利，報告利潤爲4.96億美元。這個數字和緊隨其後的第二大生產商美國鋼鐵15億美元的淨虧損形成了對比。

The company’s resilience has highlighted the advantages that Nucor and other operators of electric arc furnaces — also known as “mini-mills” — enjoy compared with traditional operators of integrated steel mills. EAFs can be turned on or off relatively easily according to demand for steel, while integrated mills’ blast furnaces need to be kept going. Electric furnaces melt down scrap steel, rather than using iron ore. Nucor employees’ pay also depends heavily on the amount of steel they produce, meaning that the company’s wage bill shrinks and grows according to demand, without the need to lay off staff.

這家公司的韌性凸顯出紐柯和其他利用電弧爐生產的鋼廠（也被稱爲“小鋼廠”）相比於傳統綜合鋼廠所享有的優勢。電弧爐可以根據對鋼鐵的需求相對容易地啓動或者關閉，而綜合鋼廠的高爐需要保持運轉。電弧爐熔化廢鋼，而不是使用鐵礦石。同時，紐柯僱員的工資在很大程度上取決於產量，這意味着這家公司無需裁員就能實現工資支出根據需求收縮或者增長。

Jim Frias, Nucor’s chief financial officer, says the company has a “better business model” than other US-based steelmakers.

紐柯首席財務官吉姆•弗里亞斯(Jim Frias)表示，這家公司擁有比美國其他鋼鐵生產商“更好的商業模式”。

“It begins with being a lower-cost producer with a highly flexible production capability that we always use to respond to market conditions more quickly than our competitors,” Mr Frias says. “Our employees are incentivised to make the most steel they can possibly make,” he adds.

“本公司從一家擁有高度靈活的生產能力、成本更低廉的生產商起步，比起我們的競爭對手，我們總是運用這種能力，更快地應對市場情況，”弗里亞斯說。“我們的僱員受到激勵，盡他們所能地最大化產量，”他補充道。

Yet it is not clear that Nucor’s approach can be easily replicated. Charles Bradford, a steel analyst, says Nucor’s US operations are dependent on cheap electricity supplies, which are not available in many parts of Europe. The company also depends on a ready supply of scrap steel, which is not yet available in still-developing China.

然而，還不清楚紐柯的策略能否被容易地複製。鋼鐵業分析師查爾斯•布拉德福德(Charles Bradford)表示，紐柯的美國工廠依賴便宜的電力供應，這在歐洲很多地區都不可行。這家公司還依賴現成的廢鋼供應，這對依然屬於發展中國家的中國來說也無法實現。