蝴蝶風暴:"單獨二胎"或降房價

Even those who know little about China have heard of its policy limiting most couples to one child. The 1980 law in the world's most populous country was originally intended to tame fears that a surging population would suck up resources and hurt growth. Birthrates plunged to 1.64 children per woman in 2011 from 4.77 in the 1970s, but the policy has led to countless troublesome consequences over the years, including forced sterilizations and abortions and a shortage of women in a country that overwhelmingly prefers boys over girls.

即便是對中國所知不多的人，也聽說過計劃生育政策，這項政策限制大部分中國夫婦只能生一個孩子。1980年，這個全球人口最多的國家頒佈了這一法律，其原意是出於對人口增長過快所帶來的資源消耗和傷害經濟增長的擔憂。中國的人口出生率從70年代的每名婦女生育4.77個兒童銳減至2011年的1.64個，但是這些年來，這一政策顯示出了無數後遺症，包括強制絕育和流產，以及重男輕女導致的女性人口短缺失衡。

Last week, leaders pledged to relax the one-child policy, allowing couples to have two children if one parent is an only child. Currently, couples are restricted to one child unless both parents are only children and rural families are allowed to do so if their first child is a girl. The policy change comes as China seeks to address a looming shortage of workers in the face of a rapidly aging population. Such demographic changes could also ripple across an unexpected part of China's economy -- its booming housing market.

上週，中國領導人表示將放寬計劃生育政策，允許有一方爲獨生子女的夫婦生二胎。目前，除非夫妻雙方都是獨生子女，否則仍只能要一個孩子；如果農村家庭的第一個孩子是女孩的話，可以生第二胎。政策變化的原因在於中國正尋求解決人口迅速老齡化背後所隱現的勞工短缺問題。這一人口結構的變化也將出人意料地影響到中國經濟的某一塊——蓬勃發展的房地產市場。

Property prices have spiked dramatically, making it unaffordable for many Chinese to buy. And studies have found that the rapid rise of China's home prices is linked to its widening gender imbalance. Because there are many more men than women (a ratio of 1.15 men of marriage age of 15 to 30 years old for every woman), China's dating scene has become ultra-competitive.

房價長期上漲，已超出了很多中國人的承受範圍。一些研究發現，中國房價的飆升與日益擴大的男女比例失衡有關。因爲男性比女性多很多（15-30歲適婚年齡段中的男女比例爲1.15:1），中國的婚戀競爭已變得異常激烈。

While nothing says "Will you marry me?" quite like a shiny diamond in the U.S., an engagement in China typically comes with a home. To be considered marriage material, men are expected to either own property or have enough for a down payment; as a result, between 2003 and 2009, as much as 48% (or $8 trillion worth) of the rise in property values across China's 35 major cities is linked to the nation's gender imbalance, according to a 2012 study by Columbia University professor Shang-Jin Wei.

在美國，閃閃發光的鑽石是“你願意嫁給我嗎？”的最佳代言，然而，在中國，求婚的典型必備品是房子。作爲挑選如意郎君的標準，女性往往期待男性要麼擁有自己的房產，要麼有足夠的首付；正因爲如此，哥倫比亞大學（Columbia University）教授魏尚進2012年所做的調查顯示，2003-2009年間，在中國35個主要城市中，房價上漲的部分中高達48%（價值約合8萬億美元）都與國內男女比例失衡有關。

With China easing its one-child policy, however, demand for housing could eventually fall.

然而，隨着中國放寬計劃生育政策，房屋需求量最終有可能下降。

Wei cites two reasons: It could take another 10 to 15 years before China sees any fundamental changes, but giving more couples a chance to have two children would help balance the male-to-female ratio. And if more men can find wives, it would help ease China's super competitive marriage market.

魏尚進列舉了兩個原因：雖然中國要在10-15年之後才能看到重大的變化，但是給更多的家庭生二胎的機會將有助於平衡男女比例。如果適婚女性數量增多，那麼中國婚戀市場異常激烈的競爭將有望得到緩和。

Also, raising the birthrate would compel citizens to save less. Because China's government invests so little on medical coverage, education, and other social safety nets, most Chinese save overwhelmingly more than they spend. They often store their money by buying up real estate, but with more children, couples would need to spend more. More than that, such couples would enjoy a wider safety net in a country where children are expected to take care of their elderly parents (Yup, that's right -- in China, visiting mom and dad is the law).

此外，生育率的提升將迫使公民減少儲蓄。因爲中國政府在醫療覆蓋、教育和其他社會保障網絡領域的投資甚少，大多數中國人更願意攢錢，不願意花錢。他們往往會通過購買房地產的方式來存錢，但是孩子越多，需要花銷的地方也就越多。除此之外，這樣的夫婦也將享有更多的保障，因爲孩子有望會給他們養老（沒錯，的確如此——在中國，看望父母已被寫入法律）。

It's unclear how Chinese families would respond to a relaxed policy. After all, rising housing and education costs have made couples in urban areas prefer having only one child.

我們仍不清楚政策放寬後中國家庭會有什麼樣的反應。畢竟，房價和教育開銷的上漲讓城鎮家庭寧願只要一個孩子。

It has been estimated the policy change could add 1 to 2 million more births every year, in addition to the approximately 15 million births a year today. Wei says as incomes rise in the world's second largest economy, it's likely that more couples will have more children.

目前，中國每年的新生嬰兒數量約爲1500萬，據估計，計劃生育政策的變化每年將爲中國新添1-2百萬的人口。魏尚進表示，隨着世界第二大經濟體國民收入的不斷增加，想多生孩子的夫婦可能會越來越多。

All this could make homes more affordable over the next several years; that is, of course, if the Chinese choose to have more babies.

所有這些因素可能將在未來幾年內讓房價更平易近人；當然，前提是中國家庭願意生更多的孩子。