中國"單獨二孩"政策遇冷
Far fewer couples than expected have applied for permission to have a second child, a year after Beijing announced the relaxation of its one-child policy to encourage births in an ageing China.
在中國政府宣佈放鬆計劃生育政策、以求在老齡化的中國鼓勵生育一年後，申請生二胎的夫婦數量遠低於預期。The National Health and Family Planning Commission announced yesterday that “nearly 1m” couples had applied to have a second child after Beijing decided to allow families where either parent was an only child to bear two. The law had previously granted that concession to urban couples where both parents were only children.
國家衛生和計劃生育委員會昨日宣佈，在中國政府決定允許夫婦一方爲獨生子女的家庭可申請生二胎後，有“近100萬”對夫婦已提出申請。此前，這一政策只允許城市夫妻二人都是獨生子女才能生第二胎。
The government said at the time that about 11m families would become eligible under the relaxed rules, which were implemented province by province from January last year. It estimated that 2m extra children would be born each year under the new policy. But even with nearly 1m couples applying to have a second child, demographic experts say not all will actually have one.
中國政府當時說，自去年1月政策放寬在各省逐步實施後，大概有1100萬個家庭將符合生二胎條件。官方估計，新政策推行後，每年將增加200萬個新生兒。但即使是在這近100萬對申請生二胎的夫婦中，人口統計學專家稱實際上並非所有夫婦都將再生一個。
The commission told a press conference the number of applicants was “in line with expert estimation that there would be no more than 2m babies born per year under the new policy”.
衛計委在昨天的新聞發佈會上說，申請生二胎的夫妻數量與專家估算的新政策下每年新生兒不會超過200萬的情況相符。He Yafu, an expert on the one-child policy, said: “The actual number of newborn second babies is even lower. I estimate it at 600,000 to 700,000, just one-third of the family planning commission’s estimate. This proves the policy relaxation will not spur rapid population growth and the demographic problem in China is continuing to worsen. We will see more proposals . . . this year to urge the government to banish the family planning policy.”
中國計劃生育政策專家何亞福說：“新生二孩的實際數量甚至更低。我估計在60萬到70萬之間，僅是衛計委估算的三分之一。這說明政策放鬆將不會刺激人口快速增長，而中國的人口結構正繼續惡化。今年……我們將看到更多的建議，敦促政府取消計劃生育政策。”Opinion polls often show a willingness among parents to bear a second child, but this is often not matched by actual births, demographers say. The revised policy affects many parents in large urban centres, where the cost of bearing an extra child, in terms of both time and money, has become prohibitive.
人口統計學家稱，民意調查往往顯示父母願意生育第二個孩子，但這往往與實際生育情況不相符。修訂後的政策影響許多生活在大城市的父母，生育二胎的時間和經濟成本使他們望而卻步。Birth-planning laws already allow so many exceptions that many demographers consider it a misnomer to call it a “one-child” policy. China is facing a critical shortage of labourers caused by 30 years of restricting family size. In 2012 the working-age population of China shrank for the first time.
中國的計劃生育法規已經允許了太多的例外，因此許多人口統計學家認爲“獨生子女”政策已名不副實。30年來對家庭規模的限制，造成了中國當前面臨嚴重的勞動力短缺。2012年，中國勞動年齡人口出現了首次下降。
