美國高層人物警告"蘇獨"後果

A “Yes” vote for independence would be an economic mistake for Scotland and a geopolitical disaster for the west, senior US figures, including Alan Greenspan have told the Financial Times, as Washington wakes up to the chance that its closest ally could break up this week.

蘇格蘭公投結果若爲獨立，將是蘇格蘭在經濟上的失算，也是西方的一場地緣政治災難——這是艾倫•格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)等美國高層人物告訴英國《金融時報》的。華盛頓正意識到其最親密的盟友有可能在本週面臨分裂。

Having assumed for months that “No” would win comfortably, Washington has reacted with alarm to polls showing that Thursday’s referendum is going to the wire. “Like many Americans, and given that my name is Robert Bruce, I have an admiration for the Scots, their heritage and their role in US and world history,” said Robert Zoellick, the former deputy secretary of state and World Bank president. “But a break-up of the UK would be a diminution of Britain and a tragedy for the west just at a moment when the US needs strong partners. I strongly suspect it would not work out well for the Scots either.”

在多個月來假設反對獨立的一方將輕鬆取勝之後，華盛頓對民調結果作出震驚的反應，這些民調顯示週四的公投命懸一線。“和很多美國人一樣，並且因爲我的名字是羅伯特•布魯斯(Robert Bruce)，我對蘇格蘭人、他們的文化遺產，以及他們在美國乃至世界歷史上起到的作用懷有一種敬佩之情，”曾先後擔任美國副國務卿和世界銀行(World Bank)行長的羅伯特•佐利克(Robert Zoellick)表示。“但是聯合王國的解體將意味着英國的縮小，那將是西方的一個悲劇，而目前正值美國需要強大的合作伙伴。我強烈預期，獨立到頭來對蘇格蘭人也沒有什麼好處。”

Senator John McCain, a former Republican presidential candidate who sees the UK as America’s most important military partner, said he was reluctant to comment on another country’s internal affairs . “But I don’t see how it could be helpful, not just as far as intelligence ties are concerned, but to the unique military relationship as well.”

曾經是共和黨總統候選人的參議員約翰•麥凱恩(John McCain)將英國視爲美國最重要的軍事盟友。他表示，他不太願意對另一個國家的內部事務發表評論，“但我看不出它怎麼可能是有益的，無論是對情報關係還是對獨一無二的軍事關係而言。”

Mr Greenspan, former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, said the economic consequences of independence would be “surprisingly negative for Scotland, more so than the nationalist party is in any way communicating”.

美聯儲(Fed)前主席格林斯潘表示，獨立的經濟後果“對蘇格蘭將出奇負面，超過蘇格蘭民族黨目前所表達的程度”。

Despite nationalist claims to the contrary, he said there was no chance of London’s agreeing to a currency union. Differing fiscal policies would also cause any Scottish attempt at using the pound regardless to “break apart very quickly. . . There’s no conceivable, credible way the Bank of England is going to sit there as a lender of last resort to a new Scotland”.

儘管民族主義者發表相反的預測，但格林斯潘表示，倫敦絕無可能同意貨幣聯盟。不同的財政政策也將造成蘇格蘭自作主張使用英鎊的嘗試“很快瓦解……沒有一種可以想象的、可信的方式讓英國央行(BoE)作爲新蘇格蘭的最後貸款人。”

The US is worried that a Yes vote could increase the chances that the rest of the UK might vote to leave the EU, which US officials believe would make Britain a much less potent partner. “That is our nightmare – Scottish independence followed by a British exit from the EU,” said a senior administration official.

美國擔心，蘇格蘭獨立的公投結果將增加英國其餘部分投票退出歐盟的機率，美國官員認爲，這將使英國成爲一個不那麼得力的合作伙伴。“那是我們的噩夢——蘇格蘭獨立，接着英國退出歐盟，”奧巴馬政府一名高級官員表示。

Josh Earnest, White House spokesman, said: “We have an interest in seeing the UK remain strong, robust and united.”

白宮發言人喬希•歐內斯特(Josh Earnest)表示：“英國保持強大、有活力和統一符合我們的利益。”