中國因素攪動全球資產價格
If viewed on a standalone basis, recent developments in China strictly do not warrant the massive global stock market sell-off and financial dislocations that have followed.
如果單獨來看的話，中國最近的國內形勢不能作爲解釋全球股市大規模拋售潮及隨後的金融市場動盪的全部理由。
Such a narrow assessment, however, ignores the cumulative impact of longer-term distortions that have taken root in the financial system, both inside and outside China. A major adjustment of policies is needed if these distortions are to be resolved in an orderly fashion. Otherwise, market forces could well force a reconciliation that will be a lot more disruptive to the financial system and the global economy.
然而，如此狹隘的論斷忽視了中國國內外金融體系在較長期內根深蒂固的扭曲的累積影響。要想以有序方式糾正這些扭曲，就有必要對政策做出重大調整。否則，市場力量很可能強制調和，這將對金融體系和全球經濟產生更大的破壞。
China is in the midst of a structural economic transformation that is recasting its growth engines, away from external markets and towards greater reliance on internal demand. With that comes an almost inevitable slowdown in growth, compounding concerns about pockets of credit excess within the economy.
中國正處於改造增長引擎、擺脫外部市場影響並逐步轉向更加依賴內需的結構性經濟轉型期間。這種轉變幾乎不可避免地伴隨着增長放緩，加劇了對中國經濟中某些領域信貸氾濫的擔憂。
Slower growth places a question mark on the government’s prior efforts to widen stock market ownership within China. Deemed as having society-wide merit, that of giving an increasing number of Chinese citizens an even more direct stake in the success of the transition to a market economy, these efforts inadvertently pushed asset prices too far. This is similar to what occurred in the US when it pursued greater home ownership.
經濟增長放緩給中國政府擴大居民持股的首要努力打上問號。這種努力被認爲具有廣泛的社會價值，讓越來越多的中國居民在國內經濟成功轉向市場經濟的過程中獲得更爲直接的利益，這些努力無形中過度推高了資產價格。這類似於美國在尋求擴大住房所有的時候發生的情況。
The spillover effects on the global economy have been amplified by four factors.
下面4個因素放大了中國增長放緩對全球經濟的溢出效應。
First, in an attempt to counter slower growth, the government has guided the currency down in the onshore market; and it has done so in a manner that has also eroded its stabilising influence on the offshore market for the renminbi.
第一，爲了應對經濟增長放緩，中國政府在在岸市場引導人民幣貶值，這麼做也削弱了其對人民幣離岸市場的穩定作用。
Second, China has been inconsistent in its direct market interventions, including announcing on Thursday a U-turn on the use of circuit breakers that halt trading on its stock market.
第二，中國在直接市場干預方面的做法前後不一，包括本週四一百八十度大轉彎，宣佈暫停股市熔斷機制。
Third, the impact of international spillovers has been accentuated by pockets of market illiquidity reflecting limited appetite among broker-dealers for taking on countercyclical risk.
第三，部分市場流動性不足反映出證券經紀機構對反週期風險的興趣有限，這加劇了國際溢出效應的影響。
Finally, to make things even more uncertain, geopolitical risk has risen in the Middle East and Asia.
最後，讓形勢更不穩定的是，中東和亞洲地區的地緣政治風險上升。
All this said, the reactions of global financial markets have gone beyond what would be warranted by a narrow interpretation of what is going on in China. After all, the authorities there have many measures available to soft-land their economy. They still run a controlled system that can avoid a forced deleveraging of the type that occurred in the West in 2008 to 2009; and they have ample financial resources to cover policy mis-steps.
儘管如此，全球金融市場的反應仍超過了對中國局勢狹隘解讀所能得出的合理水平。畢竟，中國當局可以動用諸多舉措讓國內經濟軟着陸。它們仍運營着一個受控的體系，可以避免發生西方國家在2008年至2009年出現的那種被迫去槓桿的局面。它們也擁有充足的金融資源來覆蓋政策失誤的後果。
But this would be too narrow an analytical perspective. For quite a few years now, asset prices have decoupled from fundamentals as too many countries around the world have relied excessively on experimental monetary policies. And the more central banks were successful in repressing financial volatility through unconventional measures, the greater the amount of risk that investors took on — this in sharp contrast to risk-averse companies where, despite massive cash holdings, investment in new productive activities has been rather muted.
但這種分析角度過於狹隘。多年來，資產價格與基本面脫鉤，原因是世界各地太多的國家過度依賴試驗性的貨幣政策。央行越是成功地通過非常規措施抑制金融波動，投資者承擔的風險就越大——這與風險厭惡的企業形成鮮明對比，後者儘管手握大量現金，卻沒怎麼投資於新的生產性活動。
With central banks now on divergent policy paths, it has become even more urgent to close the gap between high asset prices and sluggish fundamentals. The best way to do so is through a more comprehensive policy approach that unleashes the productive potential of the global economy, addresses deficient aggregate demand issues, and deals with chronic areas of over-indebtedness.
隨着各國央行現在政策路徑產生分歧，彌合資產價格高企與基本面疲弱之間的脫節變得更爲緊迫。最好的辦法是通過更全面的政策手段釋放全球經濟的生產潛力，解決總需求不足問題，並處理長期的過度負債問題。
This, however, requires political systems to step up to their economic governance responsibilities. In the absence of such a policy pivot, financial market volatility will continue to increase, causing bouts of price overshoots and contagion that could also harm the real economy.
然而，這需要政策體系加快承擔它們的經濟治理責任。在缺少這樣的政策重心的情況下，金融市場波動將繼續增加，導致數輪價格劇烈波動並蔓延至其他領域，這也可能破壞實體經濟。
While triggered in the short term by China-related concerns, what we are seeing this week on financial markets is, in fact, a broader phenomenon. It speaks to the gradual ending of a world in which central banks have been both able and willing to suppress financial volatility. The longer it takes for other policymaking entities to step in, the higher the risk of even greater financial instability and economic insecurity down the road.
儘管從短期來看是由於對中國的擔憂所引發，但我們本週在金融市場看到的實際上是一種更爲廣泛的現象。它表明一個各國央行既有能力也願意抑制金融波動的世界的逐漸消亡。其他政策制定機構介入越慢，未來發生金融不穩定和經濟不安全的風險就越大。
