Lex專欄 中國與印度的市盈率
Countries are not companies (unless they are Apple, considerably bigger on some measures than many sovereign states). But stripped to the basics, they have some similar characteristics. So if China and India were companies, what sort might they be?
China Corp, once a racy growth stock, attracted dollars eager to take part in its anticipated rise. Broadly, this panned out as expected — and, arguably, better. Up until this decade, China Corp tended to deliver positive profit warnings as GDP and fixed asset investment accelerated.
“中國公司”曾經是一支富有活力的增長股，吸引了不少渴望從其預期上漲中分一杯羹的美元資金。大體來講，結果符合預期，甚至比預期更好。長期以來，“中國公司”往往發出正面的盈利預告，因爲直到這個十年前，它的GDP及固定資產投資不斷加速增長。This phase is past. In recent years, GDP growth targets have been falling; profit warnings have turned negative. The latest forecast for this year is “about” 7 per cent, down from last year’s target of 7.5 per cent. And even that lower target may be missed. Yesterday, economic figures including retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment all came in uncomfortably below forecasts.
這個階段已然過去。最近幾年，GDP增長目標一再下調；正面盈利預告已經轉爲負面預警。最新預測是今年經濟增幅只有7%“左右”，低於去年7.5%的目標。而即便下調後的目標也可能無法達到。昨天公佈的零售銷售額、工業產值及固定資產投資等經濟數據皆遜於預期，這令人不安。
By contrast, India Inc is making a comeback after a disappointing decade. The country’s 1.3bn people, favourable demographics and under-developed economy make it the land of opportunity. We may have heard this before but a new chief executive (Narendra Modi, prime minister) has inspired new hope. GDP growth has been revised up, and has room to surprise if more restructuring occurs. Not everything is rosy — infrastructure is a challenge and reform is slow — but India Inc’s room to make small changes which have a large impact contrasts favourably with China Corp. The latter’s management seems flummoxed by the challenges to its model.
相比之下，在經歷了令人失望的十年後，“印度公司”正東山再起。該國13億人口、更有優勢的人口結構以及欠發達的經濟使之成爲一塊機遇之地。我們以前也許聽到過這種說法，但是該公司新任首席執行官（總理納倫德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)）給人們帶來了新的希望。GDP增長率被上修，如果實施更多結構性改革，未來還有令人驚喜的空間。印度也並非一切如意——基礎設施建設構成挑戰，改革步伐緩慢——但是“印度公司”進行小改變就可能帶來大影響，與“中國公司”相比勝上一籌。“中國公司”的管理似乎因其發展模式面臨的挑戰而變得混亂。Maybe this is in the price. MSCI’s India index trades on 16 times next year’s earnings; China on nine times. India is forecast to grow by 17 per cent, with China at 13. Not such a vast difference in growth, perhaps, to warrant such valuation disparity. But in a world where growth is scarce, small differences are worth a lot. Upgrades are worth even more.
這種差異或許就反映在了價格上。摩根士丹利資本國際(MSCI)印度指數目前所處的水平爲其明年盈利的16倍，而中國爲9倍。按照市場這種預期，印度將增長17%，而中國將增長13%。也許，兩家公司的增長率並不會有如此大差異來保證這樣的估值差距。但是在如今這個增長稀缺的世界，小差距也有重大意義。評級上調的價值就更大了。
