Lex專欄 微軟特赦盜版的背後

It is not easy being Microsoft. The price of its Windows operating system, the foundation of its empire, is falling for personal computers. At the same time the market for PCs, on which Windows is installed, stagnates. Microsoft analysts have been busy cutting revenue targets.

微軟(Microsoft)如今的處境實屬不易。Windows是這個商業帝國的根基，而該操作系統應用於個人電腦(PC)的版本的價格在不斷下滑。同時，PC市場停止了增長。關注微軟的分析師們頻頻下調該公司營收預測。

What might happen if this continues — if the price of a Windows operating system on a personal computer drops to zero? It is currently roughly $35, Stifel estimates, but is heading that way. Chinese users with pirated versions of Windows 7 or Windows 8 will get free Windows 10 upgrades this summer, Microsoft announced this week. There are hundreds of millions of Windows users in China; three-quarters of them use pirated versions.

如果這種情況持續下去，會出現什麼結果呢？倘若PC版Windows的價格降到了零呢？據Stifel估計目前Windows售價在35美元左右，但看來它正朝着零的方向下滑。微軟本週宣佈，使用盜版Windows 7或Windows 8系統的中國用戶今年夏天將可免費升級爲正版Windows 10。中國有數億Windows用戶，其中3/4用戶使用盜版Windows。

The amnesty points to a broader challenge: more and more operating systems are free. Google gives its PC operating system away — fuelling cheap Chromebooks that have sold like hot cakes. Apple’s operating systems are baked into the price of the device. The $40-a-pop operating system for consumer PCs is never coming back.

此項特赦令折射出微軟面臨一個更大的挑戰：免費操作系統越來越多。谷歌(Google)的PC操作系統就是免費的——預裝Chrome系統的筆記本電腦因爲價格低廉而熱銷。蘋果(Apple)操作系統的價格已經嵌入其設備的價格中。40美元一套的家用PC操作系統大勢已去。

In its place, Microsoft’s revenues will gradually rely more on the services and applications that run on top of Windows. These include things such as Skype, Office, and OneDrive on the consumer side; and cloud computing and commercial Office subscriptions on the enterprise side. This is not such a dim prospect. Azure, Microsoft’s cloud computing platform, signs up more than 10,000 new customers per week, and its revenue growth is in the triple digits. Hardware sales have also been strong. And corporate support agreements will continue to bolster Microsoft’s enterprise revenues.

微軟今後的營收將更依賴於在Windows平臺上運行的設備及應用，包括Skype、Office、OneDrive之類的個人端應用，以及雲計算和商用版Office等企業端服務。這樣的前景不算壞。微軟的雲計算平臺Azure每週新簽約用戶超過1萬，營收增速達三位數。硬件銷售也保持強勁。同時，企業支持協議將繼續支撐微軟企業業務的營收。

In the near term though, Microsoft’s sales will be under pressure from the transition. Two years ago, the last time Microsoft did investors the favour of providing a clean Windows sales number, Windows represented over a fifth of sales. Given that the shares have risen 50 per cent in the past two years, some air may come out of the stock.

不過，近期來看，微軟的銷售額將承受來自轉型的壓力。上一次微軟向投資者提供漂亮的Windows銷售數據是在兩年前，當時Windows佔到總銷售額的1/5以上。考慮到過去兩年間微軟股價上漲了50%，其股票可能會擠出一些氣泡。