Lex專欄 絲路概念股還能漲多久

Chinese policy makers have a taste for the grandiose. Their most eye-catching plan of late has been the “one belt one road” directive. It aims to build infrastructure links from China to Europe and the rest of Asia, cementing ties with central Asian and Middle Eastern neighbours en route.

中國政策制定者對宏大情有獨鍾。近來他們最引人注目的計劃是“一帶一路”。該計劃着眼於建設連通中國、歐洲和亞洲其餘地方的基礎設施，鞏固中國與沿線的中亞和中東國家的紐帶。

Yesterday’s news that state-owned China Railway Construction Corp has signed $5.5bn of contracts in Nigeria and Zimbabwe — following the signing of an even larger one in Nigeria late last year — shows how far this “new silk road” extends.

昨日，中國鐵路建設總公司(China Railway Construction Corp)在尼日利亞和津巴布韋簽下55億美元大單的消息，顯示出這條“新絲綢之路”延伸得多遠。該公司去年晚些時候還在尼日利亞簽署了一筆更大的合約。

Last year, China’s government kicked off the plan by pledging $40bn to an infrastructure fund. This month it announced a capital injection of more than $60bn into two policy banks to beef up lending capacity. The sums are likely to grow. This month China promised $45bn infrastructure investment to Pakistan. The appetite is there: Asia alone needs to add $11tn in urban infrastructure by 2030, HSBC reckons. Countries such as Thailand and Indonesia have a shortfall of domestic capital. The former is already working with China on rail plans.

去年，中國政府承諾爲一家基礎設施基金提供400億美元，作爲“一帶一路”的啓動資金。本月，中國政府宣佈向兩家政策銀行注資逾600億美元，以提高它們的放貸能力。這個數字可能還會繼續增加。本月，中國承諾對巴基斯坦進行450億美元的基礎設施投資。資金需求擺在那兒：匯豐(HSBC)估計，僅亞洲到2030年就需要新增11萬億美元的城市基礎設施。泰國和印尼這樣的國家國內資本存在缺口。前者已開始與中國合作實施鐵路計劃。

The largesse will not just flow abroad. Nearly $250bn will be spent in China’s provinces, HSBC says, with transport a key focus. The government has targeted $130bn for railway investment this year.

慷慨的投資將不僅流向海外。匯豐表示，近2500億美元將投入中國各省，交通是投資重點。中國政府今年鐵路投資的目標是1300億美元。

Naturally, then, infrastructure companies have been outperforming even as the Chinese market as a whole surges. The Hong Kong-listed shares of China CNR and CSR Corp, state-owned rolling stock makers whose merger was approved last month, have each risen by one half this year. They trade at chunky price-earnings multiples in the mid-20s, to go with mid-teens sales growth. The mainland A share listings have done even better, more than quintupling in the same period. They now trade at high premiums to the Hong Kong listings, having previously traded at a discount.

那麼，基礎設施企業在中國股市整體飆漲的情況下依然跑贏大盤就是順理成章的了。上月宣佈合併的國有列車製造商中國北車(CNR)和中國南車(CSR)的H股今年以來均上漲一半。兩支股票的市盈率都較高，爲20多倍，相比之下2014年營收分別同比增長7%和20%。兩家公司的A股表現更佳，今年以來股價已上漲逾兩倍，現在相對H股有很高的溢價（之前存在折讓）。

Not all of the sector is so dear. China Communications Construction, China Railway Construction and China Railway Group Hong Kong shares all trade at low to mid-teens multiples for double-digit growth. The shares have risen even more strongly than the railcar makers. One might wonder how long this train can keep rolling. At the same time, the combined revenues of all five is just $280bn. Given the size of their potential markets, the share may not come off the rails just yet.

這一板塊的股票也並非全都如此昂貴。中國交通建設(China Communications Construction)、中國鐵建(China Railway Construction)和中國中鐵(China Railway Group)的H股市盈率都爲十幾倍，增長率則爲兩位數。這些股票漲幅甚至超過了中國南車和中國北車。有人可能會懷疑這輛火車還能轟隆前行多久。與此同時，上述五家公司的營收之和僅2800億美元。考慮到潛在市場的規模，它們的股票漲勢應該暫時還不會脫軌。