恐襲頻發 德國的韌性還能維持多久

At least one group in Germany did not seem relieved when Friday’s deadly shooting in Munich turned out to be the work not of jihadi terrorists but of a lone German-Iranian gunman lacking an apparent political motive.

上週五的慕尼黑槍擊事件並非出自聖戰恐怖分子之手，而是一名沒有明顯政治動機的伊朗裔德國槍手單獨所爲，對此德國至少有一個組織並沒有感到鬆了一口氣。

The rightwing populist Alternative for Germany party (AfD) had tried to exploit the carnage. With an eye on forthcoming regional elections, the party held Chancellor Angela Merkel and her migration policy responsible for the “terror in Germany and Europe”.

右翼民粹主義政黨“德國新選項黨”(AfD)曾嘗試利用這次大屠殺。爲了在即將到來的地區選舉中爭取支持，德國新選項黨稱，德國總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)和她的移民政策要爲“發生在德國和歐洲的恐怖行爲”負責。

So far, their message has had little effect. In the aftermath of Munich — where 10 people died, including the gunman — moderate politicians and citizens alike showed calm and solidarity.

到目前爲止，這一觀點沒有引起多大反響。在慕尼黑事件——包括槍手在內，共有10人死亡——之後，立場溫和的政治家和公民都表現出了冷靜和團結。

That incident, however, came in the wake of an axe attack by an Afghan refugee on a train in Würzburg on July 18, and it was followed by two incidents on Sunday that both involved Syrian asylum seekers: one who had pledged allegiance to Isis blew himself up outside a music festival in Ansbach, injuring 12 people; and another killed a woman with a machete in Reutlingen, in what police suggest was “a crime of passion”.

然而，在這起事件發生前的7月18日，一名阿富汗難民在維爾茨堡(Würzburg)一列火車上持斧傷人。而在慕尼黑事件後的週日（即7月24日）又發生了兩起跟敘利亞難民有關的襲擊事件：一名曾對“伊斯蘭國”(Isis)宣誓效忠的男子在安斯巴赫(Ansbach)一場音樂節現場外炸死自己，造成12人受傷；還有一人在羅伊特林根(Reutlingen)持刀殺死一名女性，警方稱之爲“激情犯罪”。

It appears that Germany is vulnerable, but the attempts of the AfD to use Munich for political advantage drew opprobrium. It was striking that while President François Hollande of France condemned Friday night’s “act of terrorism”, few German politicians outside the AfD used the term.

看起來德國很脆弱，但新選項黨試圖利用慕尼黑事件獲取政治利益的舉動遭到了抨擊。引人注目的是，儘管法國總統弗朗索瓦•奧朗德(François Hollande)譴責了上週五晚間的“恐怖主義行徑”，但在德國，除了新選項黨之外幾乎沒有政治家使用這個措詞。

While, after Ansbach, Winfried Bausback, Bavaria’s justice minister, wrote that “Islamic terror has reached Germany”, so far there has been no talk of the kind of “war against terrorism” that Mr Hollande declared in France.

儘管德國巴伐利亞州司法部長溫弗裏德•鮑斯巴克(Winfried Bausback)在安斯巴赫事件之後寫下了“伊斯蘭恐怖活動已擴散到德國”這樣的話，但迄今爲止，德國人並未談論奧朗德在法國宣佈的那種“反恐戰爭”。

From a German perspective, military action against terrorists in a volatile global situation has to be part of a wider strategy. The country will, however, have to step up its engagement to help stabilise the Middle East, north Africa and the Sahel, where failing states, rampant Islamism and displacement of populations represent a significant risk to Europe.

站在德國的角度來看，在當今動盪的國際局勢下，打擊恐怖分子的軍事行動必須被納入一項更宏大的戰略之中。然而，德國將不得不更深地介入，以幫助穩定中東、北非和薩赫勒地區(the Sahel)的局勢，在這些地區，走向失敗的國家、伊斯蘭主義的流行以及民衆流離失所，對歐洲構成了重大風險。

Despite the four incidents taking place in quick succession, there has been no groundswell of support for a crackdown by the secret services. For the time being, the debate in Germany on the appropriate domestic response is far removed from that in France, where the state of emergency is the “new normal”.

儘管在短時間內相繼發生四起襲擊事件，德國並未出現支持由特工機關實施鎮壓行動的強烈呼聲。眼下，德國有關國內應如何恰當應對當前局面的辯論與法國大爲不同，在法國，緊急狀態已成爲“新常態”。

The tone may change if the attacks continue and more evidence appears linking refugees to terrorist organisations, and this could have implications for the country’s migration debate.

如果繼續發生襲擊事件，並且有更多證據表明難民與恐怖組織有聯繫，那麼德國的輿論或許會發生變化，這可能對該國關於移民問題的辯論產生影響。

While the federal government has increased spending on integration, the question of how to assimilate, in particular, unaccompanied minors has become especially pressing since the Würzburg attack, which was carried out by a 17-year-old. Moreover, Ms Merkel’s liberal stance on migration retains public support only because the numbers entering Germany fell so dramatically after a fragile deal with Turkey this year.

儘管德國聯邦政府已增加了在移民融入方面的開支，但如何同化移民——尤其是孤身無伴的未成年人——的問題在維爾茨堡事件後已變得特別緊迫。維爾茨堡襲擊是由一名年僅17歲的人發起的。此外，默克爾在移民問題上的自由立場之所以仍獲得公衆支持，是因爲今年與土耳其簽訂了一份脆弱的協議之後，進入德國的移民數量顯著下降。

Up to now, the government has managed to convey a sense of control. A poll conducted in the three days following Würzburg showed sustained support for the parties in the governing coalition, while the AfD’s rating dropped to 11 per cent. So far, the AfD and other anti-immigration movements have failed to sow distrust and fear, as populists in other countries have done.

到目前爲止，德國政府成功地傳遞了一種掌控着局面的感覺。在維爾茨堡事件發生後三天內進行的一份調查顯示，執政聯盟中的政黨依然受到民衆支持，而新選項黨的支持率下降至11%。迄今爲止，新選項黨等反移民組織沒能像其他國家的民粹主義者那樣成功地散佈猜忌和恐懼情緒。

After the Munich shooting, Germans stood together in a remarkable way. The city was in lockdown within minutes, with all public transport closing.

在慕尼黑槍擊事件之後，德國人令人驚訝地團結在一起。事件發生不久全城封鎖，所有公共交通停運。

Meanwhile, the hashtag “offenetuer” (open door) trended on Twitter as citizens gave shelter to strangers.

同時，“打開大門”標籤(#offenetuer)在推特(Twitter)上流行起來，市民們爲陌生人提供棲身之所。

This reaction is a hopeful sign in a society that, like others in the west, will have to get used to being targeted, from within and without. That resilience will be put to the test if the attacks continue.

在這個將不得不與其他西方國家一樣習慣被當作攻擊目標——包括來自內部和外部的攻擊——的社會，這種反應是一種讓人充滿希望的跡象。如果繼續發生襲擊事件，那麼這種韌性將面臨考驗。