人民幣的韌性恐難持續太久

China’s renminbi seems largely resilient a year after its sudden devaluation.

在突然貶值一年後，中國的人民幣似乎相當穩健。

The currency has weakened by only a couple of per cent against the dollar this year as the Federal Reserve has refrained from raising interest rates.

今年迄今美聯儲(Fed)沒有加息，人民幣兌美元只貶值2%左右。

The People’s Bank of China’s foreign reserves have stopped falling and the spread between China’s onshore and offshore exchange rates has almost vanished.

中國央行(PBoC)的外匯儲備已停止下滑，中國境內外市場的匯率差距幾乎消失。

The currency’s resilience, however, is unlikely to last.

不過，人民幣的韌性不太可能持續下去。

In particular, the amount of offshore renminbi deposits, having peaked last year when the currency was devalued, has continued to shrink this year despite the exchange rate becoming more stable again.

特別是，曾在去年人民幣貶值時見頂的境外人民幣存款規模，無視人民幣匯率再次趨穩而在今年繼續縮水。

The diminishing size of the offshore market is the canary in the coalmine, signalling that renewed currency turbulence is likely in future.

離岸人民幣市場的不斷萎縮，就好比煤礦中的金絲雀，顯示未來可能發生新的匯率動盪。

Holding the currency outside the mainland, however, allows investors to gain exposure to China’s economy without incurring its capital controls.

不過，在中國內地以外的地區持有人民幣，令投資者可以在不招惹中國資本管制的情況下，獲得對中國經濟的敞口。

The persistent fall in offshore deposits — down nearly a third to $180bn in the past year — shows confidence in the currency remains fragile.

離岸人民幣存款的持續下滑（在過去一年裏縮水近三分之一，至1800億美元），顯示出各方對人民幣的信心依然十分脆弱。

Firstly, shrinking offshore renminbi deposits reflect Chinese companies paying down dollar-denominated loans after last year’s devaluation increased the risk of borrowing in foreign currencies.

首先，不斷萎縮的離岸人民幣存款表明，由於去年的貶值加大了外匯借款風險，中國企業正在償還以美元計價的貸款。

Local groups are using renminbi funds held outside the mainland to cut external debts.

中資集團正在動用存在境外的人民幣資金削減外部債務。

Domestic corporates are also running down onshore deposits.

國內企業也在降低境內存款規模。

But shrinking offshore renminbi holdings — having closely tracked the decline in companies’ foreign borrowing over the past year — indicate how capital continues to flow out of China’s economy despite the current calm in the exchange rate.

但離岸人民幣持有量的不斷收縮（過去一年裏，這一趨勢緊跟企業外匯借款的減少）說明，儘管目前匯率平穩，但資金仍在流出中國。

Secondly, contracting offshore renminbi deposits reflect the shift in retail sentiment away from holding China’s currency.

其次，離岸人民幣存款的減少，反映出散戶對人民幣的持有意願正在下降。

The renminbi has been advertised in Asia’s high streets as a long-term, higher-yielding investment for individuals and households.

在亞洲零售市場，人民幣一直被推銷爲適合個人和家庭的長期、高收益投資對象。

Last year’s devaluation made it clear that the currency was not a one-way upward bet.

去年的貶值明確表明，這種貨幣並不是一種只會漲不會跌的單向押注。

This year’s declines in renminbi deposits held abroad shows retail investors continue to shun the currency.

今年人民幣境外存款持有量的下滑，表明散戶在繼續迴避人民幣。

Thirdly, offshore renminbi holdings are shrinking even while China continues to run large monthly trade surpluses.

第三，甚至是在中國每月依然運行巨大貿易順差的情況下，境外人民幣的持有量依然在下滑。

Exporters appear unwilling to convert foreign earnings into renminbi deposits outside the mainland, reflecting concern the exchange rate will depreciate again in future.

出口商似乎不願將外匯盈利在境外兌換成人民幣存款，表明它們擔心人民幣將來會再次貶值。

Lastly, declining offshore deposits are also tied to foreign investors unwinding renminbi carry trades.

最後，離岸人民幣存款的下滑還與外國投資者撤銷人民幣套利交易有關。

These appear to have begun in the summer of 2014 when using data from the Bank for International Settlements.

從國際清算銀行(Bank for International Settlements)的數據分析，這種現象似乎從2014年夏季就開始了。

Foreign banks’ consolidated claims on their Chinese counterparts — a proxy for carry trades in China’s currency — peaked at $1tn before falling steadily during the past couple of years.

境外銀行對境內銀行的總債權——人民幣套利交易的一個風向標——在達到1萬億美元的峯值後，在過去兩年裏穩步下滑。

In contrast, renminbi deposits outside the mainland peaked only when the exchange rate was devalued last August.

與此相反，中國內地以外的人民幣存款只是在去年8月人民幣匯率貶值時才見頂。

But this year’s simultaneous declines in both foreign banks’ claims on onshore banks and in the amount of renminbi held offshore show confidence is low in the currency’s future prospects.

不過，今年境外銀行對境內銀行的債權和人民幣境外持有量同時下滑，表明人們對人民幣未來前景的信心十分低迷。

Underlying the bearish sentiment on the renminbi is the fear that capital outflows will accelerate once the Federal Open Market Committee starts to tighten monetary policy again.

這種看空人民幣情緒的背後，是人們擔心聯邦公開市場委員會(Federal Open Market Committee)一旦開始再次收緊貨幣政策，中國的資金外流將會加速。

It was the threat of the Fed raising interest rates for the first time in a decade that prompted the PBoC to devalue the exchange rate 12 months ago.

而正是美聯儲10年來首次加息的威脅，促使中國央行在12個月前將人民幣貶值。

The renminbi’s central parity rate plunged from 6.11 to 6.40 against the dollar last August.

去年8月份，人民幣兌美元匯率中間價從1美元兌6.11元人民幣急劇下滑至1美元兌6.40元人民幣。

The Fed’s decision to start increasing interest rates in December led to the PBoC fixing the onshore exchange rate at 6.56 versus the greenback at the beginning of the year.

而美聯儲在去年12月開始加息的決定，促使中國央行在今年初將匯率中間價設定在1美元兌6.56元人民幣。

Concern the Fed would raise interest rates for a second time this summer led to the renminbi’s central rate to hit almost 6.70 last month.

對美聯儲今年夏季會再次加息的擔憂，曾導致匯率中間價在上月逼近1美元兌6.70元人民幣。

The renminbi’s outsize falls over the past year have been spurred by just one US rate rise.

過去一年裏人民幣的過大跌幅，是由美國僅僅一次加息導致的。

The fear that Fed rate rises in future will lead to greater capital outflows underpins the contraction in offshore renminbi deposits.

對美聯儲未來加息會加劇資金外流的擔憂，固化了人民幣境外存款減少的趨勢。

Holdings of renminbi outside mainland China are unlikely to vanish altogether.

不過，在中國內地以外持有的人民幣不太可能完全消失。

China’s growing weight in the global economy, the desire of long-term investors to diversify portfolios away from big currencies and a gradual easing of capital controls

中國在全球經濟中日益加大的份量、長線投資者將其投資組合多元化的願望、以及逐漸放寬的資本管制，

should lead to the size of offshore renminbi deposits recovering over the next few years as China’s currency is used more freely in international payments.

都應該會在人民幣用於國際支付的自由度越來越大的同時，促使離岸人民幣存款的規模在今後幾年內有所恢復。

Holdings of renminbi abroad may become as familiar as petrodollars are seen outside the US.

人民幣境外存款將變得與美國境外的石油美元一樣常見。

But the fall in offshore renminbi signals confidence has not returned a year after its devaluation.

不過，人民幣境外存款的下跌，顯示出在人民幣貶值一年後，人們的信心仍未恢復。

Fragile sentiment is set to keep the renminbi vulnerable to fresh turbulence.

脆弱的市場情緒將使人民幣依然容易受到新的市場動盪的影響。