Lex專欄 中國股市的恐怖襲向世界

It is scarily circular when a company can lend money that may end up financing the buying of its own shares. At Chinese brokerages this might easily happen: nearly one-fifth of the free float of their shares is owned by investors who have borrowed money to buy them (otherwise known as buying on margin.) Across the market as a whole, margin lending in China’s mainland A share markets has quintupled in a year, to reach $350bn. That is one-tenth of the market’s free float, according to broker estimates.

如果一家公司貸款的成果只是爲購買自己的股票融資，那將形成一個可怕的循環。這種事情可能正發生在中國券商身上：它們近五分之一的自由流通股由借錢購股（這被稱爲融資交易）的投資者所有。從整個市場來看，中國內地A股市場的融資規模在一年內增長4倍，至3500億美元。根據券商的估計，這佔市場自由流通股規模的十分之一。

Such statistics should frighten, and the market is finally scared. Last Friday the Shenzhen and Shanghai indices dropped 7 per cent apiece. A correction was overdue. Before last friday, Shanghai’s index had returned 40 per cent in the year to date. Racier mainland sibling Shenzhen — which holds more technology and healthcare companies — had doubled in the same period. The indices were no longer cheap. Shenzhen trades at 30 times 2016 earnings estimates, half again as much as the US Nasdaq, although it offers more earnings growth. Still, the growth prospects have not inspired the rally: that has mostly come from a liquidity-driven re-rating. Economic recovery has yet to materialise.

這些數據應該讓人害怕，而市場終於感到害怕了。上週五，滬深股指各下跌7%。市場回調早該出現了。在上週五之前，上證綜指今年迄今的回報率爲40%。表現更爲活躍的深證成指（擁有更多科技和醫療企業）同期翻了一番。中國的股指不再廉價。深圳股市2016年預期市盈率爲30倍，兩倍於美國納斯達克指數(Nasdaq)，儘管它提供較高的盈利增速。然而，推動股市近期上漲的原因並非增長前景：此輪漲勢的主要推動力是由流動性驅動的價值重估。經濟復甦尚未成真。

Not all Chinese stocks look pricey. Further south languishes Hong Kong, where the China-related H share index trades on a mere 8 times 2016 earnings. It has returned a relatively paltry 11 per cent this year. With reason, perhaps. Its companies — mostly banks, property and carmakers — are not as sexy as cousins across the border (such as Shenzen’s Wuhan Golden Laser, trading on 666 times historic earnings).

並非所有中國股票看上去都很昂貴。再往南一點的香港股市處於低迷狀態，與中國內地相關的H股指數的2016年預期市盈率只有8倍。該指數今年的回報率只有區區11%。這或許是有原因的。該指數的成分股（多數爲銀行、房地產公司和汽車製造商）並不像邊界另一側的深圳股市那樣令人興奮（例如深圳上市的武漢金運激光(Wuhan Golden Laser)，歷史市盈率高達666倍）。

Away from the H shares, Hong Kong has more opportunities. Boring, old-fashioned businesses, including circuit board maker Kingboard Chemical, or glassmaker Xinyi Glass , trade on single-digit multiples of 2016 earnings. They yield nearly 4 per cent. Despite this week’s scary headlines, not all Chinese stocks should engender fear.

拋開H股，香港有着更多機遇。乏味、老派企業的2016年預期市盈率爲個位數，包括電路板製造商建滔化工(Kingboard Chemical)或玻璃製造商信義玻璃(Xinyi Glass)。它們的股息收益率接近4%。儘管上週的新聞很可怕，但並非所有中國股票都應當帶來恐懼。