鋼鐵巨人安賽樂米塔爾需要減債重新站穩
ArcelorMittal, the Netherlands-listed steel producer, towers over its peers. It has twice the capacity of the global number two, Japan’s Nippon Steel. Yet that scale has not helped ArcelorMittal control costs, and it desperately needs to do so. Interest expense eats up a large portion of its profits and it has posted a net loss every year since 2011.
在荷蘭上市的鋼鐵製造商安賽樂米塔爾(ArcelorMittal)的體量傲視同行。其產能爲全球第二大鋼企日本新日鐵(Nippon Steel)的兩倍。然而，這種規模並未幫助安賽樂米塔爾控制成本，而這正是該公司極有必要做的。利息支出消耗了一大部分利潤，該公司自2011年以來每年都出現淨虧損。
Steel prices have fallen over the past year. Chinese steelmakers, facing a 5 per cent fall in domestic demand, have been exporting instead. Six of the world’s top ten steel producers are Chinese. Price deflation shows no sign of abating soon.
過去一年，鋼材價格下滑。由於國內鋼鐵需求下降了5%，中國鋼鐵企業把重心轉向出口。全球前十大鋼鐵製造商中有六家爲中國企業。沒有任何跡象顯示價格下跌趨勢即將減弱。
To the company’s credit, its net debt has declined for several years in a row. Its ratio of net debt to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, at three times, is no higher than its largest peers.
值得稱許的是，安賽樂米塔爾的淨債務已經連續多年下降。其淨債務與息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)之比爲3倍，並未高於各個主要競爭對手。
But this is one of those companies for which the use of ebitda hides the real problem. Its depressingly frequent asset writedowns are non-cash. But the resulting net losses still reduce shareholder equity — as they should, given that they represent real economic losses. Only US Steel has as poor a record when it comes to regular net losses. Its shares, along with ArcelorMittal’s, have trailed their global rivals this year.
但對有些公司來說，EBITDA數據隱藏了真正的問題，安賽樂米塔爾正是這樣一家公司。該公司過度頻繁的資產減記都爲非現金資產。但由此帶來的淨虧損仍減少了股東權益——本來就應如此，因爲它們代表真正的經濟損失。說到頻繁出現的淨虧損，只有美國鋼鐵(US Steel)有同樣糟糕的記錄。今年，美國鋼鐵同安賽樂米塔爾的股價表現都弱於它們的全球競爭對手。
So ArcelorMittal needs to do more to cut debt. The company believes it did enough three years ago, issuing equity while shutting down furnaces. Then the problem was falling steel demand, not increasing supply.
因此，安賽樂米塔爾需要採取更多措施削減債務。該公司認爲其三年前採取的措施已經足夠——發行股票並關閉高爐。但之後的問題是鋼材需求下降，而非供給增多。
Yes, next year’s dividend has been suspended. That means savings of just a few hundred million dollars; the company needs multiples of that. Unless China’s steel market supply suddenly collapses, or demand surges, steel prices will not rebound sharply enough to help. Debt must come down more rapidly.
不錯，明年要暫停分紅。但這意味着只能節省幾億美元，而該公司需要節省出這個數的好幾倍。除非中國鋼材市場供給銳減或者需求激增，否則鋼價不會出現足夠大幅的反彈、給安賽樂米塔爾帶來提振。必須更快地削減債務。
Giants stay strong as long as they remain upright. ArcelorMittal’s net debt threatens to lay it low. It should consider more radical action, such as an equity issue or even a sale of its iron ore business, to regain its poise.
只要堅持站穩，巨人就依然強大。安賽樂米塔爾的淨債務有可能將其擊倒。該公司應該考慮採取更激進的措施，例如增發新股或出售旗下鐵礦石業務以重獲平衡。
