中國實現增長預期必須靠創新

China is not always synonymous with the concept of innovation. The country is instead more commonly seen as one that piggybacks on the ideas of others, using its vast labour force to mass produce the same goods more cheaply.

中國並非總是創新的同義詞。相反，中國更經常地被視爲一個“山寨大國”，即蹭其它國家的創意、用自己的龐大勞動力以更低成本生產相同產品的國家。

However, a report published on Wednesday by the McKinsey Global Institute claims innovation will need to account for as much as half of China’s economic growth if Beijing is to hit consensus growth forecasts of 5.5 to 6.5 per cent a year in the coming decade.

然而，麥肯錫全球研究所(MGI)週三發佈的一份報告聲稱，如果未來十年中國想實現5.5%至6.5%的普遍增長率預測值，那麼創新對中國經濟增長的貢獻率需要達到一半。

“If we don’t see innovation on the scale that we are advocating, we would call the growth forecasts into question,” says Jonathan Woetzel, a Shanghai-based director of the institute. “[If we do], the resulting ‘China effect’ on innovation has the potential to disrupt markets and industries and could reshape global competition.”

“如果創新達不到我們主張的規模，那麼我們將對上述增長率預測打個問號，”MGI駐上海的主管華強森(Jonathan Woetzel)說，“（如果達到了），隨之對創新產生的‘中國效應’有潛力顛覆各個市場和行業，並可能重塑全球競爭格局。”

MGI points out that the traditional drivers of China’s economic growth are weakening. Because of its ageing population, China’s labour force could peak as early as next year and fall 16 per cent by 2050, it predicts.

MGI指出，中國經濟增長的幾個傳統引擎都在失去動力。MGI預測，由於人口老齡化，中國的勞動力可能最早在明年見頂，到2050年減少16%。

Moreover, with the easy yards already made, MGI says it now takes 60 per cent more capital to produce one unit of gross domestic product than it typically did between 1990 and 2010.

此外，由於容易摘取的果實已經摘取，麥肯錫全球研究所表示，如今單位國內生產總值(GDP)所用的資本較1990年至2010年期間的一般水平高了60%。

As the first chart shows, $5.4 of capital are now needed to produce $1 of Chinese GDP, up from $3.4 between 1990 and 2010. MGI forecasts this will rise to $7.6 by the second half of the next decade, closer to current norms elsewhere in the world.

如第一張圖表（見下）所示，目前生產1美元GDP所需資本爲5.4美元，高於1990年至2010年期間的3.4美元。MGI預測，到下個十年的後五年，這個數字將升高至7.6美元，向世界其他地區當前的普遍水平靠攏。

Investment is also likely to be constrained by China’s rising debt load that, at 282 per cent of GDP, according to MGI, is higher than in the likes of the US and Germany.

投資也可能受到中國日益升高的債務負擔的拖累。MGI數據顯示，目前中國債務對GDP的比例爲282%，高於美國和德國等國家的比例。

With growth in energy supply also likely to slow, MGI forecasts that GDP growth arising from an increased supply of the factors of production (labour, fixed capital and energy) will be only 3.4 per cent a year in the decade to 2025, down from 6.2 per cent between 2000 and 2010 and 5.6 per cent from 2010 to 2014.

考慮到能源供應的增長也可能會放慢，MGI預測，截至2025年的十年裏，增加生產要素（勞動力、固定資本和能源）投入對中國GDP增長率的貢獻將僅爲3.4個百分點，低於2000年至2010年的6.2個百分點和2010年至2014年的5.6個百分點。

To a large extent this is built into GDP forecasts, with expected growth of about 6 per cent in the next decade well below the 10.5 per cent rate achieved between 2000 and 2010 and the 8 per cent level seen from 2010 to 2014.

GDP預測在很大程度上已經將這個因素考慮了進去：未來十年中國增長率預測值爲約6%，遠低於2000年至2010年期間的10.5%、以及2010年至2014年期間的8%。

But multifactorial productivity growth, squeezing more output out of each unit of input — which MGI is loosely defining as innovation — would still need to account for 35 to 50 per cent of future economic growth for China to meet expectations, up from 30 per cent at present (see the second chart).

但多要素生產率（MFP，也稱爲全要素生產率(TFP)——譯者注）增長（即從單位投入裏獲得更多產出，這也是MGI對創新的寬泛定義）對未來經濟增長的貢獻率仍需從現在的30%提高到35%至50%，中國才能實現預期增速（如第二張圖表所示，見右圖）。

Using this definition of innovation, Mr Woetzel argues that China “has not only made more progress than it is given credit for, but it has also created new approaches to innovation that are faster, cheaper and can work on a global scale”.

使用對創新的這一定義，華強森提出，中國“不但取得了比外界承認的更快的進展，而且創造出了速度更快、成本更低且在全球範圍內適用的新的創新途徑”。

Yet this progress has been patchy. MGI divides industries into four types of innovation. It argues China has made most progress in what it terms “efficiency-driven” innovation, sectors where improvements in production processes, product design and supply-chain management are central, lowering costs and accelerating time to market.

不過，這一進步是分佈不均的。MGI把各行業按照創新的類型分爲四類。MGI認爲，中國在屬於其所稱的“效率驅動型”創新的那一類行業中取得的進展最大，在這類行業裏，生產流程、產品設計和供應鏈管理的改進發揮核心作用，其結果是成本降低、產品進入市場的時間縮短。

In nine of the 12 efficiency-driven industries MGI analysed, such as solar panels, generic pharmaceuticals and steel, China’s share of global revenues is greater that its share of global GDP, at some 12 per cent as of 2013 (see the last chart).

在MGI分析的12個效率驅動型行業中的9個行業，比如太陽能板、仿製藥和鋼鐵，中國佔全球收入的份額都高於2013年中國佔全球GDP約12%的份額（如最後一張圖表所示，見下）。

Its success stories include Broad Construction, which assembled a 57-storey hotel in Changsha in just 19 days from prefabricated components, and Everstar, which allows consumers to customise clothing and receive the finished goods within 72 hours.

中國在這一類行業的成功典範包括遠大可建(Broad Construction)和愛斯達(Everstar)。前者使用預製模塊化材料，僅用19天便在長沙蓋起了一棟57層的高樓，後者提供定製服飾，顧客可在72小時內收到成品。

The country has also made headway in “customer-focused” industries, defined as ones where innovation involves “identifying and addressing customer needs to develop new products”.

中國也在“以客戶爲中心的”行業裏取得了進展，入選這一類別的行業需要滿足的條件是，行業內的創新涉及“找出並應對客戶需求，從而開發出新產品”。

Here China has an outsized share of three of MGI’s seven sectors: household appliances, internet software and services, and internet retailing.

在這個類別裏，中國在MGI所考察的7個行業的其中3個——家用電器、互聯網軟件和服務、以及網上零售——佔據的份額超過中國佔全球GDP的份額。

It remains weak in some sectors, such as smartphones, but this may be changing. MGI gives the example of smartphone maker Xiaomi, which has 1m “fans” who vote online for new features that then appear in weekly software updates.

在智能手機等另外一些行業，中國的表現還不突出，但是情況或許正在改變。MGI給出了智能手機制造商小米(Xiaomi)的例子，後者擁有100萬“粉絲”。這些粉絲在網上對一些新功能進行投票，入選的功能隨後就會出現在每週的軟件更新中。

However, McKinsey points to significant weaknesses in two other arenas. In engineering-based industries, where companies innovate by solving engineering problems, it found Chinese companies generated 41 per cent of global railway equipment revenues and 20 per cent of those for wind power but a disproportionately small share of revenue in areas such as autos and commercial aviation.

然而，麥肯錫指出，中國在其他兩類行業的表現明顯較差。在基於製造的行業（在這些行業，企業是通過解決工程問題來創新）中，麥肯錫發現，中國企業佔據全球鐵路設備收入的41%，佔據風力發電設備收入的20%，但是在汽車和商用航空等行業佔據的收入份額小得不成比例。

The picture is worse still for science-based industries, where innovation involves making discoveries and turning them into products. In each of the four sectors here, such as branded pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, China is a weakling.

在以科學爲基礎的行業，情況更糟，這裏的創新包括探索新發現並將之轉化爲產品。在專利藥和生物科技等4個行業中，中國的表現無一例外都很弱。

Overall, MGI says China’s service industries are only 15 to 30 per cent as productive as the average across the (mostly advanced) OECD nations. Internet-based innovations to expand services, improve quality and make service delivery more efficient could create value of $550bn to $1.4tn a year by 2015, the institute says.

總而言之，MGI稱，中國的服務業行業的生產率僅相當於經合組織(OECD)國家（大多爲發達國家）平均水平的15%-30%。該機構稱，到2015年，通過擴大服務範圍、提高服務品質和服務提供效率，基於互聯網的創新每年可創造5500億美元至1.4萬億美元的價值。

In manufacturing, China’s advantage of low labour costs has started to erode. However, MGI says its still relatively cheap labour and “superior ecosystem” give it “compelling” advantages in “next-generation” manufacturing, encapsulating advances such as the embedding of internet-of-things sensors in all products, advanced robotics and 3D printing.

在製造業，中國勞動力成本低廉的優勢已經開始消失。然而，MGI稱，中國仍然相對低廉的勞動力成本及“優越的行業生態環境”使之在“新一代”製造業——比如在所有產品中嵌入物聯網傳感器、高級機器人以及3D打印等先進製造業——佔據“絕對”優勢。

The could create value of $450bn to $780bn a year by 2025, making a total of $1tn to $2.2tn a year, although this still falls short of the $3tn to $5tn a year McKinsey calculates China will have to generate from innovation to meet consensus growth forecasts.

到2025年，這每年可以創造4500億至7800億美元的價值，再加上基於互聯網的創新每年可以創造的價值，總值可達到每年1萬億至2.2萬億美元，不過這仍未達到3萬億至5萬億美元的目標值——據麥肯錫估計，中國要達到普遍增長率預測值，每年從創新中創造的價值必須達到這個範圍。

It says Beijing can do more to help by expanding access to capital for small and medium-sized enterprises and entrepreneurs, enhancing the quality of regional innovation clusters, improving protection of intellectual property and upgrading the allocation of funding for scientific research.

麥肯錫稱，中國可以通過爲中小型企業和創業者擴大融資渠道、提升地區創新集羣的質量、加強知識產權保護、以及增加科研經費撥款來推動這一目標的實現。

“China has the potential to evolve from an ‘innovation sponge’, absorbing and adapting existing technology and knowledge from around the world, into a global innovation leader,” says Mr Woetzel.

“中國有潛力從只吸收和修改世界各地現有技術和知識的‘創新海綿’，轉變爲全球創新領頭羊，”華強森表示。

“Our analysis suggests that this transformation is possible, though far from inevitable.”

“我們的分析表明，這種轉型儘管遠非板上釘釘，但卻是可能實現的。”