中國“高鐵外交”受阻

China’s plan to use high-speed rail technology as a “golden business card” to spearhead a global tide of infrastructure exports has run into trouble, with the value of projects called off far exceeding those under way, a Financial Times investigation has found.

英國《金融時報》一項調查發現，中國把高鐵技術當作“黃金名片”、以帶動一波全球基建出口潮流的計劃遇到了麻煩，被取消項目的總價值遠遠超過開工項目。

The total value of 18 Chinese high-speed rail projects overseas — including one completed, five under way and 12 more announced — amounts to $143bn, according to a study by the FT and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think-tank.

根據由英國《金融時報》和華盛頓智庫戰略與國際問題研究中心(CSIS)開展的一項研究，中國18個海外高鐵項目（其中包括一個已完工項目、五個在建項目、以及另外12個對外公佈的項目）總價值爲1430億美元。

The ambition of China’s use of rail for economic diplomacy rivals that of the US-led Marshall Plan to revive Europe after the second world war, to which America contributed $13bn, or the equivalent of $130bn today. But the combined estimated value of projects called off in Mexico, Myanmar, Venezuela, Libya and the US is $47.5bn, the FT estimates. That is almost double the $24.9bn for projects under way in Laos, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and two in Iran, according to CSIS estimates.

中國把鐵路用於經濟外交的雄心，可以媲美二戰後美國領導的復興歐洲的馬歇爾計劃(Marshall Plan)。當年美國爲馬歇爾計劃貢獻了130億美元，相當於今天的1300億美元。但是據英國《金融時報》估計，在墨西哥、緬甸、委內瑞拉、利比亞和美國取消的高鐵項目的總估計價值爲475億美元。而根據CSIS估計，在老撾、沙特阿拉伯、土耳其在建的高鐵項目，以及在伊朗在建的兩個高鐵項目，規模總計爲249億美元。被取消項目的總價值接近在建項目的兩倍。

The failures are a blow to China’s reputation for engineering expertise and project management. In 2015, Li Keqiang, the premier, lionised high-speed rail as a way to showcase China’s technology and competitiveness.

上述失敗對於中國工程技術和項目管理的聲譽是一個打擊。2015年，中國總理李克強將高鐵捧爲展示中國技術和競爭力的途徑。

Each cancelled project was scuppered after agreements were announ-ced by Beijing and the recipient governments. The reasons cited for scrapping the projects included allegations by recipients of insufficient transparency, delays by Chinese contractors and popular opposition. In Libya, the 2011 civil war ended a planned line between Tripoli and Sirte, the former dictator Muammer Gaddafi’s hometown.

每個被取消的項目都是在北京方面和接受項目的政府公佈協議後泡湯的。被提及的項目取消原因，包括接受國家有關透明度不夠的指控、中國承建商的延誤、以及民衆的反對。在利比亞，2011年內戰終結了原計劃從的黎波里到蘇爾特的線路。蘇爾特是利比亞前獨裁者穆阿邁爾?卡扎菲(Muammer Gaddafi)的家鄉。

The cancellations come despite China’s cost advantages. A 2014 World Bank report found building high-speed rail with a top speed of 350km per hour costs $17m-$21m per km in China, compared with $25m-$39m in Eur-ope and as much as $56m in California.

這些項目是在中國確實具有成本優勢的情況下被取消的。2014年世界銀行(WB)一份報告發現，在中國修建最高時速爲350公里的高鐵，成本爲每公里1700萬美元到2100萬美元，相比之下在歐洲該成本爲2500萬美元至3900萬美元，在加利福尼亞州則高達5600萬美元。

But such advantages can be offset by other drawbacks when Chinese companies work in alien political and business environments, analysts said. Long delays have become commonplace.

不過，分析師表示，這種優勢可能會被中國企業在陌生的政治和商業環境中工作所帶來的不利因素抵消。項目的長期拖延已變得十分常見。

Thailand’s military junta this month approved $5.3bn for a Chinese-built high-speed rail line that had been delayed for years, partly because of controversy over the reluctance of Chinese companies to hire Thai engineers.

本月，泰國軍政府批准了53億美元撥款，投入由中方承建的一條高速鐵路線。此前該項目被拖延多年，部分是由於中企不願僱用泰國工程師所引發的爭議。