中國互聯網初創企業投資熱或將消退大綱

HONG KONG — China’s Internet companies, in recent years, have been the shining stars of growth, with Alibaba and Tencent rivaling in size some of their most formidable global competitors.

香港——近幾年來，中國的互聯網企業一直是經濟增長中的亮點，阿里巴巴和騰訊的規模堪與全球最強大的競爭對手媲美。

Inspired by their success and driven by huge buyouts of smaller companies by China’s Internet giants, investors have poured money into new start-ups.

它們的成功，以及中國互聯網巨頭斥巨資收購小型公司的潮流，促使投資者紛紛將資金注入了新成立的初創企業。

But new figures from the end of 2015 show that wave of investment may be coming to an end, or at least slowing.

但是從2015年底的最新數據來看，這波投資熱潮可能即將結束，至少是在放慢速度。

In China, venture capital investment fueling the growth of new start-ups fell 29 percent in the fourth quarter from the level in the third quarter, according to a new report from CB Insights and KPMG. The report, which calls the drop in funding a “crash,” says it is linked to economic uncertainty in the region.

風險投資推動了新生初創企業的增長，但研究公司CB Insights和畢馬威(KPMG)發佈的一份新報告顯示，中國第四季度的風險投資比第三季度減少了29%。該報告形容這種融資減少是“暴跌”，認爲它與地區經濟狀況的不確定性有關。

Among the contributors may be the Chinese Internet giants that have fueled the boom. Hiring freezes at Alibaba and Baidu have signaled recent caution about spending, according to Mark Natkin, founder of the research firm Marbridge Consulting in Beijing.

之前推動那波繁榮的中國互聯網巨頭，可能也在暴跌當中發揮了作用。調研企業北京邁博瑞諮詢有限公司(Marbridge Consulting)的創始人馬克·納特金(Mark Natkin)認爲，阿里巴巴和百度凍結招聘，顯示它們最近在支出上變得謹慎。

“A year or two ago, V.C.s felt they didn’t have to drive a company all the way to I.P.O. for an exit because Baidu, Tencent and Alibaba were rolling down the aisles with their shopping carts,” he said, referring to venture capital firms. He pointed out that now those firms are less focused on smaller companies, and instead are preoccupied with consolidating more mature sectors like group buying and ride-hailing apps.

“一兩年前，風投覺得不必一直把初創公司推到上市才能退出，因爲百度、騰訊和阿里巴巴在大舉收購小公司，”他說。他指出，目前巨頭們不那麼關注於收購小公司了，而是忙着在較爲成熟的領域進行整合，比如團購、拼車應用。

A looming question is how much recent market turmoil in China will affect private fund-raising in 2016. A major slowdown could dent Beijing’s ambitions to continue the rapid growth of the Internet industry.

一個迫在眉睫的問題是，中國近期的市場動盪會對2016年的私募融資形勢造成多大的影響。經濟的嚴重放緩，可能會打擊北京讓互聯網行業保持快速增長的雄心。

In recent economic plans, the Chinese Communist Party has identified Internet-related businesses as fundamental to the transition of the Chinese economy from one centered on infrastructure investment to one based on consumer spending.

在最近的經濟計劃中，中國共產黨已經表示，與互聯網相關的企業，在中國經濟從依靠基礎設施投資向依靠消費支出轉型的過程中，是一個根本性的力量。

The slowdown comes as total Asian venture capital investment hit levels last seen in 2013 in North America, before the most recent boom in investment there. Just last week China announced a $30 billion fund to help bail out struggling electronics makers and other tech firms, a potential indication that the recent slowdown and stock market turmoil could spill over into the strategically important tech sector.

在中國投資放緩之際，亞洲風險投資總體達到了北美2013年的水平，當時北美還沒有出現最近的投資熱潮。上週，中國宣佈提供300億美元的資金，幫助那些苦苦掙扎的電子產品生產商及其他科技企業擺脫困境，這個潛在的跡象說明，最近經濟放緩及股市震盪的情況會影響到具有重要戰略意義的科技行業。

The Chinese trend follows a broader pullback in global venture capital investment at the end of 2015. In the United States, deals fell for the second straight quarter to their lowest level since 2011, according to the report. In the last quarter of the year, the total amount of money funding private companies fell by 30 percent from the previous quarter.

中國的這種趨勢符合2015年末全球風投廣泛回撤的形勢。報告顯示，在美國，交易連續第二個季度下滑，降至2011年來的最低水平。在去年第四季度，私有公司拿到的投資總額比前一季度下降了30%。

Yet the drop-off in China and Asia comes amid a very different context than the drop-off in the United States. In Asia, the increase in venture capital funding rose much more sharply after 2013. Such investment in Asia jumped from just $2.8 billion in the first quarter of 2014 to $14.2 billion in the third quarter of 2015. In the fourth quarter it fell to $9.7 billion.

但與美國風投金額減少的情況相比，中國和亞洲地區風投金額減少的背景完全不同。在亞洲，風投資金在2013年後大幅增加，從2014年第一季度的28億美元增加到了2015年第三季度的142億美元。而第四季度，風投金額降至97億美元。

Still, 2015 was a banner year for Asian venture capital investment, with deals totaling $39.7 billion in 2015, well above the $21.1 billion in 2014 and the meager $6.4 billion in 2013.

但2015年仍是亞洲風投領域的豐收年，這一年的交易總金額達到397億美元，遠高於2014年的211億美元，以及2013年極少的金額——64億美元。

The report said venture capital firms may be sitting out the latest investment rounds because they expect valuations to come back down to earth in the next year or two. In Asia, roughly one-third of investment in start-ups comes from large corporations, compared to just a quarter in North America.

報告稱，風投公司或許不會參加最新一輪的融資，因爲它們預計估值會在未來一兩年迴歸低位。在亞洲，初創公司獲得的大約三分之一投資來自大型企業，而在北美，這個比例只有四分之一。

Lyndon Fung, an analyst with KPMG’s U.S. capital markets group, wrote in the report that Chinese investors are also increasingly looking abroad.

畢馬威美國資本市場分析師馮瑞麟(Lyndon Fung)在報告中寫道，中國投資者也越來越多地將目光投向了國外市場。

“We are seeing Chinese V.C. investors and V.C.-backed companies shifting their focus to invest in the international market, where things are a bit more stable, to acquire complementary technologies to strengthen their ecosystem,” he wrote.

“我們看到中國的風投，及獲得風投支持的公司，將投資重點轉移到了狀況比較穩定的國際市場，從而取得互補性的技術，增強其生態系統。”